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In the space of just three months, Axa sold nearly half its stake in Goldman Sachs. According to a document quoted by U.S. stock market regulator the Financial Times, the French insurer has sold nearly 16 million shares of U.S. bank and reduced its share from 5% to 2.1%. The funds were raised to bail out financial services group.

The withdrawal of the French group came at a time when the famous Wall Street bank saw its market capitalization melt after an investigation by the U.S. court on possible fraud. In the quarter, the title of the investment bank collapsed by nearly 23%.

Other major shareholders of Goldman Sachs have also reduced their stake in the bank business loan no fax payday. BlackRock and T.Rowe Price have respectively sold 1.6 million and 4.2 million shares Goldman Sachs.

Meanwhile, Axa has reduced its stake in U.S. Bancorp and that of Barclays and acquired stakes in Wells Fargo and Bank of America.

However, the bank always seems to be supported by Warren Buffett had invested in September 2008 – is in financial crisis – some five billion dollars in bank capital. The investor would also prominent candidate for the acquisition of Direct Line, a subsidiary of British bank RBS.

Washington announced Friday it had cleared the merger between United Airlines and Continental Airlines. The Department of Justice indicated that the two U.S. companies had responded to his objections to their merger, leaving a number of slots for landing and takeoff at Newark International Airport near New York.

Downstream Europe in July

United Airlines, the third American company, Continental Airlines and fourth, had announced in May their intention to merge under the single name of United. The European Union, the guardian of competition in Europe, had already given its approval to the transaction at the end of July. In a statement, Brussels stated that his investigation confirmed the complementarity of the two companies' networks for Transatlantic routes, since they operate hubs in different U.S. cities."So there will be a marginal increase in market share," concluded the European Union. But a refusal of the United States was to be feared, as authorities in 2001 vetoed a previous merger between United Airlines and U.S. Airways on the grounds that it would reduce competition in the transport sector to the detriment of the public.

Fusion 1 October

The U.S. Department said it had closed its investigation as a result of the merger between the two companies, which gives them the field libre.Dans a statement, the two companies said they expected to complete their reconciliation of by 1 October. By marrying, they hope to better withstand the difficulties faced by the industry today, including the rising cost of fuel and competition from low cost airlines.Together they serve 370 destinations in 59 countries, with a combined turnover of 29 billion dollars, a fleet of nearly 700 aircraft and about 87,000 employees worldwide.

Dropped 6% Eurostoxx 50 in four meetings. -4.5% On the Dow Jones. The stock markets are feeling the pinch since five days after a series of disappointing indicators. But the deteriorating economic conditions may explain in part the decline of recent days. A new phobia stirred since mid-August the community of technical analysts, very active in the Anglo-Saxon: the Hindenburg omen. According to this theory based on statistical observation, when during a single session, a large amount of assets a share price reached its highest level since 52 weeks and another group of shares is in contrast to a low of 52 weeks, then it presages a new crash on Wall Street. This configuration has indeed preceded all the crashes of the past 25 years.Now this rare phenomenon has been observed on August 12 last.

At first glance, the analysis may seem silly, but when we know the possible influence of technical analysis on decision making in trading rooms, the question deserves some attention here. An emphasis on this theory could have the effect of precipitating the collapse of markets by a kind of anticipatory self-fulfilling.

What happened on August 12

On 12 August, the same day at least 2.9% of U.S. stocks from the NYSE reached a peak of 52 weeks, while at least 2.6% of values fell to a low of 52 weeks. This configuration, called "Hindenburg omen," referring to the crash of a German Zeppelin in New Jersey in 1937, would thus poses a risk of an imminent collapse in the New York Stock Exchange.For the scenario is validated, however, requires that the configuration is again within 35 days. However, if one sticks to the analysis of Robert McHugh Marketoracle website, seems to have been the case, last August 20.

More ominously, this type of configuration, which, under certain conditions, would have preceded each of the 25 crashes last year. This was the case before the crash in the fall of 2008. The figure was also present a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987. We could observe three trading days before the panic of October 1989. With this indicator, the 1990 recession, falling stock markets linked to the collapse of LTCM and Asian crises of 1998 were also predictable.

A highly controversial approach

By looking more closely at the scenario is unlikely to occur. To understand this flag, it must return to basics.The paternity of the Hindenburg omen Miekka back to Jim, who edits a newsletter called the Bull & Bear Report Sudbury. But the very idea of this flag goes back to later, finding its roots in another indicator: the high low logic index, described by Norman Fosback in the 1970s. In his book Stock Market Logic, the American economist, explained why when at the same time, a significant number of shares reached a new high and a significant number reaches a low, markets are likely to decline. This shows that the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence, which is generally not conducive to future rising stock prices.

But where Norman Fosback had merely simple criteria, proponents of the Hindenburg omen facing a multitude of conditions, which are subject to interpretation, and therefore are not unanimous.That's where the shoe pinches. In practice, it is virtually unenforceable.

Reliable indicators abound in the sense of portent

When the five conditions necessary for the validation of the Hindenburg omen are met, the stock market crash, defined by a rapid drop of at least 15% of stock market indices in the next four months, would then have 30% chance to occur. A contrario reasoning is sufficient to limit the scope of this prediction: if a 30% chance that a crash occurs, there are so 70% it does not happen! This likelihood does not however exclude the possibility of an imminent crash.

This approach also runs counter to the traditional view of technical analysis, which is to banish any source of subjectivity by analyzing the market through simple indicators, not subject to multiple conditions in an attempt to predict the evolution courses in the coming weeks. Technical analysts therefore recommend to always use the same indicators that markets go up or they fold, including the trend of moving averages.These reliable indicators not currently exclude a decrease of 10% to 15% of the market in the coming weeks, as recommended in the Hindenburg omen.

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The Paris Bourse hesitated Wednesday

The five conditions of the Hindenburg omen

First, the quota values that cross new thresholds upward or downward has been lowered. For Norman Fosback requires a minimum of 5% of the relevant securities. But for the Hindenburg omen it requires a much lower threshold of 2.5%.

Further, the followers of the Hindenburg omen believe it should be interpreted in light of several other indicators on the conditions of validity of five.The first condition, the most important is that the highest and lowest of 52 weeks. The second is that the moving average of ten weeks NYSE should be increased. Thirdly, the McClellan Oscillator (a proxy measure of volatility) must be negative on the same day. Fourth condition: the highest amount of new 52-week values the NYSE should not exceed twice the amount of new low of 52 weeks. Finally, and this is the fifth and final condition: the scenario must be repeated within 36 days after the first appearance of this configuration market.

Place the masons and painters! Members of the Committee on Social Affairs of the National Assembly completed late Thursday afternoon, discussing the draft law on pensions, with a few hours ahead of schedule. Members will now leave the Palais Bourbon completely delivered to artisans who have already begun the usual summer work. Return scheduled Tuesday, Sept. 7, even on Monday night at 6 for a special session will begin by examining the same text, but this time in the Chamber.

"It is in times of transition, summarized perhaps one at the Elysee. The real battle will take place from September. "The for Sarkozy are well aware that this first parliamentary stage was a formality. Not surprisingly, the debates have been looped smoothly."The Socialists have just wanted to make a coup by breaking the lock-in twitter discussions with their phone," is a counselor. What the left willingly admits. For now, she preferred surf the weakening of Labour Minister Caught in the case Bettencourt. Godsend for the Socialists, who are careful not to request his resignation.

Paradoxically, the majority seemed more worried by the progress of the case and its component Bettencourt Woerth that by the turn of the debate on pensions. "The left is going clubbing Woerth in September. He held up? "Wonders already a minister. The Elysee hopes that the summer break will reduce the pressure. Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon reiterated that Eric Woerth defend indeed the text on Sept. 7. In other words, he will not be driven to resign by then."It is quiet because we know there is nothing in the record," says the Prime Minister.

"Everything will be decided in September. We are ready for battle. But it also depends on the mobilization in the streets, "says one seat in the PS. Clearly, the left hopes to build on part of the public. Even if the opponents and proponents of reform are divided into two shares more or less equal faxless cash advance.

Unions united

Unions, too, prepare to maturity. For September 7 will also be a new day of strikes and protests against the reform that SF has, once again, on Thursday asked the "withdrawal". In reality, most organizations do not believe and do not even dream to win concessions on key points, beginning with the postponement of the age to 62 years.However, they have not conceded the changes on other aspects of the text during the parliamentary debate.

They rely for that on the "pressure" of the street. Will they exceed the threshold of two million demonstrators, after 1.9 million announced on the evening of the last day of action – successful – last June 24? Not easy to mobilize massively, just days after school starts. Therefore plants have continued their campaign all summer, touring the beaches to the CFDT distributed a booklet "educational" on reform and its "alternative" possible, the CGT.

The unions will have an advantage: their unity restored. Having refused to sign for months, FOR has joined its competitors, and the CFE-CGC has done the same.It is the only organization to accept the decline of legal age, but she believes that the conditions there pose – including a strong financial closure of the reform – are not met.

Faced with this united front, the government has chosen to keep the ballast drop. He has done at this stage, no specific proposals on issues which he is willing to develop: difficulty, and long careers polypensionnés.

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Ensuring pension "adequate, sustainable and safe". That is the goal set by the European Commission on Wednesday, opening a public debate across Europe about pensions. One way for Brussels to contribute to debates in the member states, faced with increasing public deficits and debt.

France initiated its reform, that the legal age of retirement will be pushed back 60 years to 62 years by 2018. By 2029, the Germans to retire at age 67 instead of 65 today. Spain, whose age is currently 65, is studying a similar scenario. Finally, Great Britain, the legal age could be raised to 68 years.

These measures are widely endorsed by the European Commission, who said in a Green Paper published today on the occasion of the opening of public debate."In all Member States, an aging population weighs heavily on the existing pension plans, and financial and economic crisis has only increased that pressure," said a statement in Brussels with its consultation document.

"In Europe it is expected that the number of retirees will double by 2060 compared to the number of people who fund their pensions: the current situation is simply unsustainable. To remedy this, it is necessary to consider carefully the balance to be struck between the length of working life and in retirement, "said European Commissioner for Employment, Laszlo Andor in this release.

An average exit age increased to 70 years by 2060

Clearly, the EU executive urges EU states to a widespread decline in the age of retirement, at a time when people are living longer while birth rates are sliding. "In 2008, there were four people of working age (15-64 years) for every citizen of the European Union (EU) aged 65 years at least. By 2060, this ratio will drop to two for one ", explains the Commission. The latter considers that the average age of retirement should be raised from 65 to 70 years by 2060 to maintain pensions at their current level.

The consultation opened on Wednesday last four months, until November 15, 2010. To mobilize the citizens, the Commission established a website to collect the views of each.Based on a recent Eurobarometer survey, Brussels says that Europeans are ready to accept the measures taken by EU governments. The survey found that "73% of citizens of the European Union provide a clear decrease in their retirement or think they have to work longer or save more for their old age."

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Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphics.

Formality. Unless disaster, Laurence Parisot should be re-elected Thursday as head of MEDEF for three years. The boss of bosses is the only candidate to succeed him and won the support of 40 members of the executive board present at the May 31 (out of 45 members) in a secret ballot.

The boss of bosses was the only candidate to succeed him (photo credits Jean-Christophe Marmara to the Figaro).

When the vox populi expressed through an associate professor of finance, here is what happens at the trial of Jerome Kerviel.

Attorney Philip Bourion: "Who do you think is guilty?"

Catherine Lubochinsky, witness: "They are all guilty! The internal control of Societe Generale did not work. "

The pithy statement sums up the impression left after two weeks of debate – will resume Monday morning. On the one hand, the defense of the former trader is reluctant to admit that the bank "knew everything" of its investments delusional. Suppose that after the first coup win € 500,000 in 2005, the young daring to be seen gently lectured and implicitly encouraged to supplement his income by marauding on land more profitable than its cushy turbo warrants.

But how can we believe for one second that the SocGen has been tacitly approve of Mr. Kerviel is 49 billion euros, or one and half times its equity, as a builder who wants to elevate a building, while undermining its foundations?

Similarly, if the bank "knew everything", the name of what bounty would she let her trader-playing with the kamikaze 1.4 billion by some miracle he had won in December 2007, at a time – crisis subprime – where the cash was missing around the world?

Mixed results in terms of image

Jerome Kerviel's lawyer, Olivier Metzner Me, excels, however, in another field. While the client is regularly scolded by a president Pauthe excellent and witty, he revels in the main plaintiff tease – the bank.

Sunglasses nose, in the proper dress casually maker unbuttoned, one hand in the pocket, it is amusingly sly when his client is woefully stiff. This significant mob, which grows out of court a look Churchillian (cigar, no doubt, "no sport") reveals an unexpected gift for comedy courtroom upscale. And when questioning a witness, there is no lack of pacing responses of "agree" sound, which are seen as the architect of an alleged consensus: according to Ms. Metzner, everyone knows that the bank knew everything.

This assumption and the provocations of his zealot infuriate the advice of SocGen, My Jean Veil, François Martineau and John Reinhart. The first, known for his character, say, entire, up to the net to return the smashes grinning defense. So he endorses the range of fatally bad, who is never "agree".The roundness of the old, somewhat obsequious, from Mr. Martineau, and the projections more or less come to me Reinhart are supposed to smooth the image that ill becomes belligerent to a victim.

Result: a judicial perspective, the SocGen, which accuses the defendant not without arguments for having lost 4.9 billion euros, is in apparent position of superiority. Mr. Kerviel acknowledged Wednesday that he had committed the acts he is charged and for which he faces five years in prison. The weakness in his defense is a question: if "everybody knew, why he invented large-scale fictitious transactions to conceal his real positions, as well as earnings losses?

But in terms of image, the picture is more mixed.The refrain of "all guilty", which floods the Internet to which Professor Lubochinsky Thursday offered a providential respectability for the defense, made his way. Whatever the outcome of the trial – there is a week of discussions – the SocGen not willing to spend for naïve or incompetent: the victim must also face prosecution in international finance.

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Continental Airlines and United Airlines are about to happen in the ring finger. According to CNBC, a merger agreement between the two U.S. airlines could be signed next Monday.

According to the Thursday edition of The Wall Street Journal, "the Board of Directors of Continental met Wednesday and has scheduled another meeting on Friday (the day, Ed)" with United, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Two years after failing in their negotiations – the two groups did not agree because of unions and integration costs – United and Continental, whose bosses have always wanted to participate in the movement of Contraction sector, would now be on the same wavelength.

These last two weeks, the talks resumed but opinions differed on how the modality of trade action.

U.S. leadership to

This union intervendrait and only one week after the breakdown of negotiations between U.S. Airways and United Airlines. If the proposed merger between Continental and United Airlines led the new group would become the U.S. leader in the sector, ahead of Delta Airlines, with a market capitalization of over $ 6 billion.

It remains to be seen whether the authority will accept American competition this marriage Guaranteed unsecured personal loan. For who says merger often said job cuts and higher fares.What politically wrong.

A refusal has been lived to its reasons for U.S. Airways and United Airlines, almost 10 years ago, when they had proposed a reconciliation.

A need for synergies

While the sector has experienced in 2009 "the worst year's ever known industry, concentration is a single best way to achieve synergies and economies of scale.

The North American companies have suffered a loss of 3.1 billion dollars last year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

For 2010, although the estimates have been reported by IATA, the performance accrue largely to companies in emerging countries (Asia and South America), while companies in North America and Europe still would suffer heavy losses, the about 1.8 billion dollars for the former and 2.2 billion for the latter.

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Ten months (June 2009, Ed) that the government was waiting for good news on the employment front! The number of registered unemployed at the employment center in group A (unemployed who have not worked at all during the month) has in fact declined by 0.2% in March, representing a decrease of 6,600 people on a months. In total, 2.7 million people were registered in late March in the reference category, an increase of 9.8% over one year.

But the thinning stops there because the number of jobseekers registered in the four other categories increases. And sometimes significantly: +2% in group BC (24,700 unemployed persons who worked more or less than 78 hours in the month), 2.4% in category D (6200 unemployed in training, education or health) to +3 8% in group E (11,400 unemployed in assisted contracts). Worse, over one year variations ranging from 18.3% (Class BC) to + 36.4% (Class E).

"The increase in categories C, D and E reflects both the recovery of Acting as an employment policy more active, more job seekers in training and subsidized contracts," Marie-grade Claire Carrere-Gee, President of the Advisory Council for Employment which welcomed the "significant slowdown for several months" the number of unemployed.

In other words, the social treatment of unemployment is running at full output during the crisis. Difficult, therefore, welcome a decline in unemployment in France (including overseas departments) where 4,130,000 people "required to make positive job search" was recorded at the end of March employment center. 0.5% more than a month ago and 12.5% a year ago.

As usual, most 50 year olds still have suffered in March, with growth still disturbing number of entries: +1.1% in group A and +1.5% in ABC."Without strong political will, these jobseekers were statistically unlikely to rush out of trouble, consider Marie-Claire Carrere-Gee. Passed the fifties, it is very difficult to find work, moreover in an economy that barely found his breath. "And, even more than" half of the unemployed over 50 years are unemployed Long-term, "she insists. Conversely, young shoot for the fifth consecutive month hold their own while benefiting from a decline of between 0.5 (Class ABC) and 1% (A) enrolled.

Lower radiation

Another black spot: the share of jobseekers in employment center for over a year continues to increase (+0.7 percentage points in one month and up 5.1 in one year) to represent 35.3% of registered voters. As for seniority, it reached 415 days on average, an increase of 29 days in a year.In fact, only the registered unemployed for less than a year benefit from the upturn in March with a decline of 0.7% of their enrollment and reduced to 4.1% increase over one year.

As grounds for release of employment center, march to a significant reduction in the number of radiation administration (-7.9% in one month) and a stagnation of terminations for default updating entries (0.8%). The collection of jobs is up 2.9%, including the jobs of more than 6 months were up 7.4% in a month.

The Paris Bourse opens up on Tuesday after two sessions that have propelled by the 4000 points as a result of the case Goldman Sachs. The CAC 40 rose at the opening of 0.16%, to 3987 points.

Monday evening, the CAC 40. Friday night, the benchmark index of the Paris fell 1.94%.

Wall Street has ended without direction while the SEC has fueled the uncertainty by preventing it would be interested in other U.S. banks, including Deutsche Bank, UBS, Merrill Lynch, etc.. on securitization transactions.

Asian stock markets resumed Tuesday morning colors. A rather technical progress.

Zew index to follow

In Germany, the statistics institute Destatis unveiled producer prices up 0.7% in March on a month, resulting in lower annual rate of 1.5% -2.9% cons in February.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an average increase of 0.4% a month to month and down 1.8% over one year.

The most watched barometer Zew financial community will be published 11 hours. In the eurozone, the European Central Bank will publish the balance of payments 10 hours.

In the U.S., no major economic figure is expected Tuesday.

EADS, only for an offer

Air France-KLM (0.62%, to 12.15 euros) announced Monday that the decision of French and European authorities to open corridors into European airspace allowed him to "gradually take over its operating schedule . The group felt that the paralysis it costs 35 million euros in losses per day. For its part, Club Med believes the impact on its activity to 5 million euros per day.Titles back on Tuesday to 1.73%, to 13.25 euros.

Furthermore, EADS (+0.21% to 14.44 euros) should submit a solo bid for the tanker contract from U.S. Air Force after he failed to associate with L-3 Communications Holdings or any other provider, said on Monday close to the matter. But rival Boeing seems more than ever favorite for the contract to $ 35 billion for only the first installment.

Lagard?re cons attack

In an interview with Le Figaro, Arnaud Lagardere said it excluded to abandon the status of sponsorship and Lagard?re will take "adequate time" to sell 7.5% stake that the group still holds in EADS No teletrack payday loans.Lagardere shares lost in the first exchanges 0.66%, to 31.47 euros.

The mutual bank BPCE sent an absolute bar to Deminor in the standoff that pitted him against the shareholder advisory firm on the whole record Natixis, the investment banking subsidiary public offerings in 2006 and washed by the financial crisis. Moreover, Natixis (2.42% to 4.03 euros) confirms its proposed sale to Axa's private equity activities.

BNP Paribas (0.56%, to 55.66 euros) announced it signed an agreement with Banca Popolare di Milano in the Italian bank to buy back its activities in the custodian bank for 55 million euros.

The values in the wind motor

Buoyed by a sharp increase in goals from Daimler, whose shares are more than 7% at the Stock Exchange Frankfurt, values are part of the automotive sector increased sharply.Renault and climbs from 2.51% to 34.93 euros, Peugeot of 2.04%, to 22.22 euros. Valeo is 1.98%, to 25.72 euros and Michelin 1.52%, to 53.48 euros.

Soitec and Guyenne published

Soitec reported an increase in demand and an improvement in its operating profit in the second semester 2009-2010. It seeks a balance from operations for the current year. Titles rise of 2.92%, to 11.44 euros, the largest increase of the SBF 120.

Guyenne et Gascogne (-3.34% to EUR 71,51) has published an increase of 4.7% of its revenue for the quarter, reporting a tentative recovery in Spain and a rebound of his activity in France in March.

Safran issued on Tuesday a stable activity in the first quarter, as expected. The shares were down 1.75%, to 18.65 euros. The largest decrease in the SBF 120.

FRANCE

Saffron: AC 1T (0700)

Radiall ca1T2010

Accor Q1 results (after market)

Lafuma AC 2T (after market)

USA

Coca-Cola Q1 results (before market)

Johnson & Johnson Q1 results (before market)

Goldman Sachs Q1 results (1400)

Yahoo!: Q1 results (after market)

GB

Tesco: annual results

SABMiller: progress report of 4T

SWEDEN

TeliaSonera: results 1T

SKF: results 1T

FINLAND

(*) Kone: results 1T (1130)

SWITZERLAND

Novartis Q1 results (0700)