Total: the gas leak could be costly
Experts have not yet returned their verdict about the seriousness of the situation on the gas platform of Total in the North Sea. But analysts have already whipped out their calculators and trying to measure the cost of the incident for Total and stakeholders. The range of estimates is very wide: it extends to the French oil group, 150 million dollars (113 million) to $ 10 billion (7.5 billion euros) in case of explosion of the platform.
In all cases, it appears that the bill implied $ 16 billion (12 billion euros), deduced from the fall of Total shares on the stock market, is largely overestimated, says Societe Generale. "A loss of over $ 7 billion (5.3 billion euros) for Total (which holds 46.2% of the platform) seems particularly severe," wrote analyst Societe Generale. The impact on production will remain relatively moderate and the final cost in a worst case scenario hardly exceed the amount implied by the Exchange.
150 to 200,000,000 dollars
To try to guess what the final bill of the incident, calculate how much is the cessation of production from the platform evacuated Sunday at midday. According to CM-CIC Securities, the daily loss would rise between 10 and 15 million. "For Total, one can estimate a minimum cost of 150 to 200 million dollars in the best case (limited to two weeks off) or even more if the situation were to persist for several months' advance CM-CIC Securities. The shutdown could last from six months to a year, according to various analysts. An official of Total recognized that blockage could last up to six months.
$ 10 billion in case of explosion
The bill also depends on the solution proposed to solve the crisis. Exane BNP Paribas, estimated that operators of the platform may have to dig two relief wells, each costing about $ 44 million (33 million) direct payday lenders. Remains a possible explosion on the platform would jump costs for operators. The bill could reach 7.5 billion according to analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch. This amount includes the loss of deposits and the platform (about 2.8 billion euros) and nearly $ 1.5 billion to clean up environmental damage, but excludes any fines.
Analysts agree on one point: this incident, which involves gas and not oil, will not scale environmental or financial cost of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in April 2010. The operator of the platform involved in this disaster, the oil BP, had to set aside $ 37.2 billion (24 billion euros).
Between 100 and 200 million pounds less for Crown
Stopping exploitation of the Elgin platform in the North Sea could also have an impact on … tax revenues of His Majestys. "If the site remains closed door for six months, this could result in a revenue loss of between 100 and 200 million pounds (119 and 238.4 million euros)," David has calculated Tinsley, an economist at BNP Paribas . This amount, compared to 43 billion pounds collected by the British state in 2011, does not include any costs of cleanup. The invoice is not limited to the tax shortfall. British production, already amorphous, could also be slowed, says the analyst, who concluded that the country's growth could even be reduced by 0.05% in the second quarter.
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