Archive for the ‘opinions’ Category

Goldman Sachs: Axa halved its share

August 30, 2010 - 8:52 pm Comments Off

In the space of just three months, Axa sold nearly half its stake in Goldman Sachs. According to a document quoted by U.S. stock market regulator the Financial Times, the French insurer has sold nearly 16 million shares of U.S. bank and reduced its share from 5% to 2.1%. The funds were raised to bail out financial services group.

The withdrawal of the French group came at a time when the famous Wall Street bank saw its market capitalization melt after an investigation by the U.S. court on possible fraud. In the quarter, the title of the investment bank collapsed by nearly 23%.

Other major shareholders of Goldman Sachs have also reduced their stake in the bank business loan no fax payday. BlackRock and T.Rowe Price have respectively sold 1.6 million and 4.2 million shares Goldman Sachs.

Meanwhile, Axa has reduced its stake in U.S. Bancorp and that of Barclays and acquired stakes in Wells Fargo and Bank of America.

However, the bank always seems to be supported by Warren Buffett had invested in September 2008 – is in financial crisis – some five billion dollars in bank capital. The investor would also prominent candidate for the acquisition of Direct Line, a subsidiary of British bank RBS.

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The activity growth slows in France

August 23, 2010 - 9:28 pm Comments Off

August subdued for the French economy. According to a first estimate, the flash PMI index of purchasing managers stood at its lowest level since five months, to 59 points, against 59.7 in July, reported Markit. Pessimists will note that the services are in decline, against 61.1 to 59.9 in July. As for industry, she has continued to destroy jobs in the month of August.

But optimists emphasize that, although down compared to July, the PMI indicator reflects a strong growth in business services as industry. This also recovers to 54.7 against 53.9 a month earlier. In general, grade Markit, the two sectors have "stronger growth in the volume of new business" on the month. What "confirm the solidity of the French takeover," analyzes Jack Kennedy, economist at Markit.The government has revised its forecast Friday for growth for 2011 downward from 2.5% to 2%.

On another positive note, employment continued to grow, driven by strong hiring in the services. Above all, companies "remain confident about their business outlook," "anticipate new business opportunities" and "hope for an improvement in overall economic conditions over the next twelve months," notes Markit.

Germany shaped

In Germany, activity has accelerated in August, reaching the highest since three years, according to Markit index. This was up by 59.3 points, against 59 in July. "The strong growth in services from the index, while the industry recorded a slight slowdown in growth."While some manufacturers are worried about the holding of world trade, the robust performance of services will be crucial in the second half" to maintain the dynamism of the recovery in Germany, analyzes Tim Moore, an economist at Markit.

The PMI index for the entire euro area fell slightly to 56.1, against 56.7 points in July. This result, which indicates a growth in activity, conceals alarming disparities between national economies, growth still based primarily on Germany and France, "warned Markit.

"After an excellent second quarter, growth in the third quarter should be relatively robust to the heart of Europe," said Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas."A further rise in significant business is in the cards, probably beyond current expectations."

Less optimistic economists at BNP Paribas' doubt that the dynamism in the services prevent the European economy to slow sharply in the second half. "

Football: impending sale of the club from Liverpool

August 21, 2010 - 4:56 pm Comments Off

A Chinese owner of the club from Liverpool? The fund China Investiment Corporation (CIC), led by the wealthy Kenny Huang, would in any case confirmed its interest in the Reds. More than just a word, CIC has already reached the cash to afford the football club. And, by selling 9% of share capital the fund held in Morgan Stanley. Amount generated: 558 million (the équivelant 351.4 million pounds). Either the decimal point, the debt of British club, reports the Guardian.

Another businessman claiming close discussions with the club to five European Cup victories. He called and said Yahya Kirdi be supported by a group of Canadian investors and Saudi Arabia. "Our group is in advanced negotiations with Tom Hicks and George Gillett, current owners of Liverpool Football Club, to purchase 100% of the club.An agreement was reached on the major terms, including purchase price, repayment of debt (approximately 300 million euros, ie) banks RBS and Wells Fargo to finance a new stadium Stanley Park. The formal contract of sale is in its final stages of negotiation, "he announced.

Statements to be taken lightly. For the sale of the club is orchestrated by Martin Broughton, Chairman of the club, with the support of the British bank Barclays. But Yahya Kirdi does not seem to have negotiated with them directly.

But whether or Yahya Kirdi Kenny Huang, sale of Liverpool seems on track. The leaders of the Reds have more alerted the Premier League, as want new rules on sale of a club, a club takeover was imminent.

The club Liverpool is not the only shine in financial difficulty.Since the beginning of the crisis, fifteen of the twenty clubs that make up the Premier League are looking for investors. According to the audit firm Deloitte, the overall debt of the elite of British football came to 3.6 billion euros in 2009. Manchesteur United, Arsenal and Chelsea, the other three clubs in the "Big Four" are also on trial.

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Lafarge: margins fall

July 30, 2010 - 8:12 pm Comments Off

Lafarge, the group specializes in building materials, has announced a decrease of 3% of its turnover for the first half of 2010. At constant exchange rates and constant perimeter, the decrease amounted to 4%. The operating income showed a decline of 5% to 1.072 billion euros (-9% at constant scope and exchange rates).

Net income from Lafarge withdrew its side of 29% to EUR 233 million. The current operating margin shows finally a decrease of 30 basis points to 13.9%.

In the second quarter alone, sales rose 2% to 4.436 billion euros but, at constant perimeter and constant exchange rates, sales rose 2%. The operating income increased 5% to 836 million euros. It is stable at constant exchange rates and constant perimeter.

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New measures to reduce debt

Bruno Lafont CEO of Lafarge, said in a statement that "the pace of economic recovery remains uncertain and highly variable from one country to another," led the group to adjust its market forecast for the year 2010. Lafarge table so now on a variation of the demand for cement between -1 and +3% on the year compared to 2009 (against 0% to 5% expected in late March).

The band announced further steps to reduce its debt amounting to 15.16 billion euros (down 1% during the first half).Thus, it will "limit its investments in 2011 to 1 billion euros" and sets "a new goal of structural cost reductions of more than 200 million euros."

Renewed speculation around the Club Med

July 19, 2010 - 9:32 am Comments Off

Just over one month after the arrival of a new Chinese shareholder – Fosun Group, up 7.1% stake – Club Med is again subject of speculation, the Sunday Times reporting that Sunday that an investment company managing the funds of the family of the Sultan of Brunei, BMB Group, plans to file a takeover offer for the group of holiday villages. His proposal, presented as a friendly, valued the club at 800 million euros, almost double the market capitalization of the company, which was about 430 million euros on Friday.

BMB Group has denied reports Sunday night in a statement."The BMB Group is in discussions with any officer or shareholder of Club Med as suggested by the Sunday Times article, it says Harold Alby, a spokesman for the group totally free credit score.

At the same time, nobody wanted to comment at Club Med. The Sunday Times, BMB Group has already the support of three of the four major shareholders of the group chaired by Henri Giscard d'Estaing (Chinese Fosun, GL Partners hedge fund and investment company Rolaco), and finalize it this week discussions with the first of them, Fipar International, a subsidiary of Caisse des Depots and management of Morocco.

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Fireworks spared by the crisis

July 13, 2010 - 6:20 pm Comments Off

The fireworks on July 14, is sacred in many municipalities, but not Mennecy. This town of Essonne is indeed one of the few to have made the choice to give up for budgetary reasons. "This is the third consecutive year that we do not celebrate the national holiday, says Elizabeth Vasseur, deputy mayor. It is a decision we made when we arrived responsibilities. Given the state of public finances, we have chosen to focus on building maintenance, or renovation of two schools being. Because we do not want to raise taxes, "she argues. The savings amounted to ten thousand euros. If people have stayed up Mennecy perhaps no worse the other 364 days of the year, few cities, however, he followed suit.

For the celebrations of July 14 remains a symbolic moment for which the municipalities continue to invest in broadly stable, despite the severity of wind hovering at the national level. In Paris, the budget devoted to one of the biggest fireworks of the Hexagon is constant since 2001. An investment of € 500,000 by July 14 to 30 tons of powder and 30 minute show. "In the current economic climate, we did not want that expense increases, say to the City of Paris. But it seems important to properly celebrate this national event. " Same story in a smaller city, Chalon-sur-Saone (71), where the budget for fireworks is roughly the same from year to year, despite a desire for renewal: "Our budget is constant for 5-6 years, explains Cédric Sementi, responsible for the event.But we chose this year to remove the sound of fire to prolong the duration of the show. " In total, 14 July festivities will be spread over five days in Chalon whole through the operation "Summer Sonatas" paydayloan.

The fireworks, creator of the social bond

Jacques Couturier Organization, which has won this year's market fireworks in the city of Paris, his explanation for this relative constancy: "The fireworks created a social bond that we all need in times crisis, analyzes its founder. Increasingly, we are asked to create fireworks outside the July 14, for example recently at the Championnat de France cyclist Vendee. Especially since the resources allocated to the festivities usually remain small relative to the overall budget of Commons.In Sceaux (92) – which does more than fireworks on July 14 for 10 years, preferring the fires of St. John – the various festivities cost about 200,000 euros to the municipality, with a total budget of 30 million. "This costs in a city hall, which is most likely to suffer from the crisis, are the social or educational expenses," said Philip Lawrence, Mayor of Sceaux.

Among Europe's leading fireworks, Lacroix-Ruggieri, there is however a slight decline in budgets. The amounts invested were stable in 2009, but budgets have contracted by about 5% this year. "All budgets ranges from 2000 euros to 500,000 euros, have been involved," says Jean-Michel Dambielle, Director General Operational Group. And if the national holiday of July 14 is still with us, removal of business tax still worried the bomb."The fiscal autonomy of municipalities will decrease their budgets might be affected, analysis Picard, CEO of Group F, creator of the fireworks in Paris in 2008. Will we still saved? We'll see next year. "

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Growth: Lagarde await fall

June 21, 2010 - 12:32 am Comments Off

The European Commission has just been estimated in March that the forecasts were too optimistic France and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last Thursday to consider that they might lead to "a significant underestimation" of efforts to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013, Paris had no intention of yielding to pressures coming from all sides on its growth forecast and react hastily to the scaling back.

While the government expects growth of 2.5% in 2011 as in 2012, Christine Lagarde, who was Sunday guest of Grand Jury RTL-LCI-Le Figaro, said Bercy maintained that figure. "It is perhaps a bit daring.But this does not mean that I do not think so because when we have breaks in growth, as we had last year, it rebounded the following year generally stronger than that which was anticipated, "Christine Lagarde has justified, that speaks of" a spring that tightens "…

Nevertheless, "it is too early in the year," to decide to revise the forecast, says she. "Wait and see the results of second quarter results that I hope good." The growth figure for the second quarter will be published in August.Traditionally, this publication – which comes in full preparation of the draft budget law – leads to changes in assumptions of growth for the next year payday loans.

Commitments savings firm and final

If she wants to be proactive, Christine Lagarde, however, not only closes the door to such a review. Paris will pose the question "to fall," said the minister.

This will be a real challenge for public finances. For the equation becomes perilous Paris counts on the 2.5% growth to get him some 35 billion euros in tax revenues to enable it to meet part of 100 billion euros that represents a return to 3% deficit in 2013.If it is not there you will have to find more savings.

One thing is certain: "The commitments we made in terms of economy of expenditure and intervention are firm and final," said Christine Lagarde.

In short, the government must conduct a struggle of economic policy. Christine Lagarde, who just celebrated three years as head of the Department of Economics, said he was ready to continue to assume. While circulating the idea of a reshuffle in September, "it is the President of the Republic to decide what the best players at the right time. If I am useful for the France team, I am available to the Prime Minister and the President of the Republic. Has it Matignon in sight? "Certainly not! Answered Christine Lagarde. The French economy and employment deserve I spend all my energy. "

The economies of emerging countries will exceed those of rich countries

June 17, 2010 - 4:24 am Comments Off

The OECD refers to a "structural change" of historic importance. The phenomenon is not new but it has accelerated over the last decade and more as a result of the crisis. The weight of emerging economies has amplified, as evidenced by a new study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on the tilting of wealth. In support, the few trade data: in 2009, China became the largest trading partner of Brazil, India and South Africa. Between 1990 and 2008, world trade has multiplied almost fourfold, while the South-South trade have been more than ten. Indian car maker Tata is now the second largest investor in sub-Saharan Africa.Financially, the Developing Countries held in 2008, 4.2 trillion dollars of foreign reserves, or more than one and half times the amount held by the rich countries.

Another sign of their increasing weight between 1990 and 2000, the number of countries called emerging markets (ie whose average per capita equivalent to more than double that of OECD countries) has increased from 12 65. Several states of Eastern Europe like the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia acceded to the richest group, along with Saudi Arabia. Today, says the OECD, a simple division into two is more relevant. Château de la Muette now retains the concept of world "four speed", according to growth rates and income levels: poor, distressed, convergent and rich.Interesting phenomenon, twenty economies, mostly in Asia like India, Indonesia and Bangladesh but also in Africa, like Ethiopia or Nigeria, have made a great leap forward from the status of "poor" than "converge".

Note in this scenario, the underperformance of Latin America, where reforms have done little to advance growth. The report noted a reduction of poverty, especially in China where the rate has decreased by 60% in 1995 to 16% in 2005. The downside, if the number of poor has decreased overall from 300 million in the last decade, growth has often been accompanied by increasing inequality, which may influence the long term.

But the trend should not be reversed.In 2030, the OECD area could represent 43% of global GDP in purchasing power parity, against 60% in 2000 and 51% in 2010.

Events in Italy and Germany against the rigor

June 12, 2010 - 9:04 pm Comments Off

Tens of thousands of trade unionists yesterday converged toward the center of Rome at the invitation of the CGIL, the main federation of workers in Italy (5.5 million members).

Shouting "not only on our shoulders," they denounced the sacrifices imposed by the government of Silvio Berlusconi to reduce the public deficit from 5.3% to 3.9% next year and 2.7% of GDP 2012.

At a rally Piazza del Popolo, Guglielmo Epifani, Secretary General of the CGIL, reiterated that his organization was not opposed to a correction of the accounts of the state. "We reject this maneuver only made budget cuts without structural reforms or measures to support investment, particularly in public education and research," he told Le Figaro before the start of the event."Those who will pay for will mainly employees and the lowest incomes while wealth and annuities will not be affected."

Guglielmo Epifani also calls for a broad mobilization to invite the Parliament, which will begin consideration of the bill next week, "to modify".

The CGIL has launched on June 25 a word of general strike of four hours in the private sector and the public 24 hours.

For its part, the Democratic Party (PD), the main opposition, has announced a rally against the plan "unfair" in Rome June 19 while magistrates, public sector doctors and world culture multiply protests.

The government plans to freeze wages and hiring in the civil service for two years and 10% reduction in the allocation of ministries and local authorities.No new taxes would be raised and the taxation of financial income would continue to benefit from a preferential rate, but a greater effort would be made against tax evasion.

For the Bank of Italy, the austerity plan could result in a reduction of O, 5% of GDP in 2011/2012 "as a result of compression of consumption and investment." Italy expects a growth of 1% this year and 1.5% in 2011.

Events in Germany

Protests against the rigor were also held in Germany. Between 15,000 and 20,000 people marched in Berlin, organizers said. And between 10,000, according to police, and 20,000, according to organizers, Stuttgart.

The German government announced Monday an austerity plan of 80 billion euros by 2013.He wants to save 11 billion euros in the budget 2011, including through budget cuts in military spending and social.

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The weight of private debt threatens Spain

June 7, 2010 - 8:00 am Comments Off

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphics.

In Madrid

Again, it is a credit rating agency has sounded the alarm. Fitch recently lowered the rating one notch from Spain, was concerned about the weight of private debt for growth prospects. If market pressure in recent weeks has focused on the soaring national debt, the time bomb in Spain could come from private debt.

In 2008, the accumulated debt of households and enterprises was 220% of GDP according to Eurostat, against 159% in France, Italy 138% and 130% in Greece, dunce European government debt. Only Portugal beats the record of his Hispanic neighbor with 255%! The problem is summarized in one word: stone.Even today, real estate receivables represent over 70% of household debt.

The Spaniards pay the crazy real estate boom years of speculation-all does, where developers have built millions of square meters in gigantic projects, where banks have opened the floodgates of credit, increased interest rates by attractive. Since over 80% of Spaniards, Jose Maria Molina has invested his wages in stone. "I decided to buy an apartment because the reimbursement of the credit cost me nothing more than rent," he says. All were encouraged: the tax benefits, the abundant supply and the famous "cultura de propiedad the" culture of ownership. In Spain, a rent was seen as an expenditure and the purchase of a property as a profitable investment … well until the crisis. Jose Maria has the harsh experience.Employee of a security alarm company, he has always honored its debt carefully, paying each month "between 400 and 500 euros. A total flux, since the vast majority of Spanish mortgages are variable rate negotiated. They are indexed on the Euribor, the interbank lending rate for the euro … Russian mountain assured. In 2008, Jose Maria has lost her job. "When I was fired, I was given eight months of unemployment benefits. Then, I have received no assistance. "He stopped paying the bank for nine months, then his home was seized. Today, Jose Maria returned to live with his mother. At 42 years old. Same scenario for José Coy, who had established a small textile company in the region of Murcia. His property, purchased on credit, served as collateral for other loans that financed its activities. But in April 2009, he had to close shop, victim of globalization.Suddenly, he found himself without a business, jobless and soon without control of his apartment. Jose, who paid back 720 euros each month, tried to renegotiate its loans. But taken in the financial turmoil, the bank had granted its loans so easily does not listen anymore. In one year, his property will be auctioned on the market, morose, Spanish property. Meanwhile, Jose Coy has decided to fight back: he took the head of the Platform of victims of the credit of Murcia and claims to assigning his property in lieu to the bank in exchange for the cancellation of its debt.

Time bomb

These slices of life illustrate the squaring of the circle of the Spanish crisis. Victims of the recession that has resulted in tens bankruptcy and pushed unemployment to 20%, households and businesses no longer able to meet their deadlines.Their purchasing power risk of further deterioration as a result of austerity measures, higher taxes and lower social spending. "Private demand will fall further as the private agents tend to focus on reducing debt and it is not public demand, restrained by the austerity plans, which will take over as in 2008 and 2009," says Philip of Sabuco BNP Paribas. Even within the majority, concern is growing: "We have a private sector debt triple that of the public. The challenge is to ensure that the cost of financing does not stifle the economy, "said Parliament this week the leader of Socialist deputies, José Antonio Alonso. Spain can not inject billions as did the United States to stem the subprime crisis.Knowing too much debt – 71% in 2008 according to the McKinsey Institute – is in the hands of foreign creditors, potential lenders stung by fears of the market, especially if they are outside the Eurozone. This is not counting the other bomb that is a possible crash of the banking sector. How companies and banks refinance? At what rate? What implications for the economy in the long term? The IMF has pointed out, the heavy indebtedness of the private sector is a challenge for Spain struggling to revive growth.

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