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In Madrid
Again, it is a credit rating agency has sounded the alarm. Fitch recently lowered the rating one notch from Spain, was concerned about the weight of private debt for growth prospects. If market pressure in recent weeks has focused on the soaring national debt, the time bomb in Spain could come from private debt.
In 2008, the accumulated debt of households and enterprises was 220% of GDP according to Eurostat, against 159% in France, Italy 138% and 130% in Greece, dunce European government debt. Only Portugal beats the record of his Hispanic neighbor with 255%! The problem is summarized in one word: stone.Even today, real estate receivables represent over 70% of household debt.
The Spaniards pay the crazy real estate boom years of speculation-all does, where developers have built millions of square meters in gigantic projects, where banks have opened the floodgates of credit, increased interest rates by attractive. Since over 80% of Spaniards, Jose Maria Molina has invested his wages in stone. "I decided to buy an apartment because the reimbursement of the credit cost me nothing more than rent," he says. All were encouraged: the tax benefits, the abundant supply and the famous "cultura de propiedad the" culture of ownership. In Spain, a rent was seen as an expenditure and the purchase of a property as a profitable investment … well until the crisis. Jose Maria has the harsh experience.Employee of a security alarm company, he has always honored its debt carefully, paying each month "between 400 and 500 euros. A total flux, since the vast majority of Spanish mortgages are variable rate negotiated. They are indexed on the Euribor, the interbank lending rate for the euro … Russian mountain assured. In 2008, Jose Maria has lost her job. "When I was fired, I was given eight months of unemployment benefits. Then, I have received no assistance. "He stopped paying the bank for nine months, then his home was seized. Today, Jose Maria returned to live with his mother. At 42 years old. Same scenario for José Coy, who had established a small textile company in the region of Murcia. His property, purchased on credit, served as collateral for other loans that financed its activities. But in April 2009, he had to close shop, victim of globalization.Suddenly, he found himself without a business, jobless and soon without control of his apartment. Jose, who paid back 720 euros each month, tried to renegotiate its loans. But taken in the financial turmoil, the bank had granted its loans so easily does not listen anymore. In one year, his property will be auctioned on the market, morose, Spanish property. Meanwhile, Jose Coy has decided to fight back: he took the head of the Platform of victims of the credit of Murcia and claims to assigning his property in lieu to the bank in exchange for the cancellation of its debt.
Time bomb
These slices of life illustrate the squaring of the circle of the Spanish crisis. Victims of the recession that has resulted in tens bankruptcy and pushed unemployment to 20%, households and businesses no longer able to meet their deadlines.Their purchasing power risk of further deterioration as a result of austerity measures, higher taxes and lower social spending. "Private demand will fall further as the private agents tend to focus on reducing debt and it is not public demand, restrained by the austerity plans, which will take over as in 2008 and 2009," says Philip of Sabuco BNP Paribas. Even within the majority, concern is growing: "We have a private sector debt triple that of the public. The challenge is to ensure that the cost of financing does not stifle the economy, "said Parliament this week the leader of Socialist deputies, José Antonio Alonso. Spain can not inject billions as did the United States to stem the subprime crisis.Knowing too much debt – 71% in 2008 according to the McKinsey Institute – is in the hands of foreign creditors, potential lenders stung by fears of the market, especially if they are outside the Eurozone. This is not counting the other bomb that is a possible crash of the banking sector. How companies and banks refinance? At what rate? What implications for the economy in the long term? The IMF has pointed out, the heavy indebtedness of the private sector is a challenge for Spain struggling to revive growth.
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