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The speech will be delivered to a very limited audience, but it will be heard by the entire financial world. The head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, will speak on Friday afternoon (French time) to his counterparts at the traditional central bankers in Jackson Hole Symposium, Wyoming.

While the U.S. economy slows dangerously, investors expect a tough response from the Fed. But they may be disappointed because, faced with two problems, the central bank runs out of ammunition.

Misdiagnosis

First, Ben Bernanke erred in economic diagnosis. He underestimated his own admission, the low growth in the first half and was counting on a rebound in demand in the second, which for now does not materialize.Problem with its main policy rate at zero since December 2008, the Fed has little room to revive again the supply of credit. Some members of the Monetary Committee refuses to go further. Among the reluctant, Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed. It is estimated that on August 9 promises to continue until mid-2013 interest rates unusually low, the Fed made a mistake: the promise deters businesses and individuals to borrow quickly as they know that the rates are not nearly up.

So what can Ben Bernanke promised? The resumption of purchases of long-term bonds the Treasury is the preferred option by the markets. But given the high level of inflation, the method is risky.In addition, low interest rates leaves little hope that this new "quantitative easing" has a significant effect on credit supply.

Ben Bernanke should focus on technical measures. The Fed could cut the compensation of bank reserves. It would be a way to push banks to lend rather than storing their cash with her. The second measure seeks to change more or less gradually the composition of its balance sheet, which reached 2.7 trillion dollars. To maintain long-term rates as low as possible, the Fed may decide to increase the proportion of its balance sheet invested in long-term securities, while reducing the one placed in short-term securities. The decline in long rates will encourage companies and individuals to refinance their debts and support the real estate.

Japan is recovering slowly from the disaster of 11 March. On Monday, the government announced a slowdown of 0.3% of GDP in the second quarter. But this decline, of 1.3% annualized, less than analysts' forecasts which projected a contraction of 0.7%. It also shows a marked improvement over the 0.9% decline the previous quarter cashed.

Between April and June, exports fell sharply by 4.9% and is the main factor in the decline. During this period, deliveries of goods have been hampered by the destruction of factories and infrastructure in the devastated areas of north-east of the archipelago. Breaks in the supply chain were found in the key sectors of the automobile and electronics exports pillars.Industrial activity has also been slowed by the nuclear accident in Fukushima that led to the arrest of a significant portion of the reactor pool and therefore a fall in electricity production.

The downward trend was further accentuated by a decline of 1.9% of private real estate investment and a 0.1% decline in consumption. The trauma of the disaster, which killed more than 20,000 dead or missing, has indeed led the Japanese citizens to exercise restraint for several weeks, slowing private consumption, which is usually an engine of growth online cash advance. This slowdown was partly offset by the increase of 3% of public investment.

"We will rebuild Japan"

To observers, this leaves the second quarter, however, consider a rapid improvement in the Japanese economy."If the economy is improving as it takes shape in some respects, it is possible that growth back at the period from July to September", commented Takeshi Minami, an economist at the Institute Norinchukin whose opinion joined the Minister of Finance, Yoshihiko Noda.

For his part, Prime Minister Naoto Kan took advantage of the sixty-sixth anniversary of the surrender of Japan to promise an improvement in the economy. "Our country has emerged from the ruins of war through the efforts of every citizen and overcame many difficulties to date. With these experiences, we will rebuild with determination and force the devastated areas and Japan. "

These remarks have convinced the Asian markets on Monday morning.At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei has closed the day on a sharp increase from 1.37% to 9086.41 points.

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The Asian market does not yield to panic. After closing up slightly Wednesday, several Asian stock markets are divided down Thursday, but less pronounced than Wall Street and in Europe the day before. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 is again in the red, falling 1.04% to 8945.12 points after finishing up 1.05% yesterday.

Of the places in China, Hong Kong the Hang Seng 1.45% yield while the composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.68% to 1134.65 points. In Seoul, the Kospi index is left in the green, up 0.71% to 1819.14 points after plunging by 4% in early trade.

Investors remain concerned, however, fearing another recession in the United States and a spillover of the crisis of debt in the eurozone payday loan lenders. The gold and reached new records, crossing first the maximum 1800 dollars.It was worth 1814.50 dollars in the morning before going down to 1785 dollars. Another safe haven, the yen appreciates, and is worth 76.63 dollars, against 76.83 the previous day.

Oil also set off again down in Asia. Yet he had resisted the panic the day before with the announcement of a dramatic and unexpected decline in crude inventories in the United States. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" lost 79 cents to 82.10 dollars and that of Brent North Sea fell by 1.10 dollars to 105.58 dollars.

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In the night from Friday to Saturday, S & P downgraded the rating of the United States, from "AAA" to "AA +". This historic announcement, which comes as the markets have closed a black week, plunged the financial world into the unknown. Munis Hassim, professor at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, explains why such degradation threatens the U.S. economy, the first world power, and identifies the situation to that of Japan in the 1990s.

Is the degradation of the notes of the United States plunges us into a new crisis?

The fact that the United States lose their triple-A means that they have a slightly higher probability of defaulting. But by switching to "AA +", this probability is very low. Moreover, experts and analysts do not believe at all a failure to pay the largest economy in the world. So there is no reason to panic.However, the multiple consequences which such degradation can they prove to be very disturbing.

For example?

The fact that S & P has dared to sacrifice the American note puts enormous pressure on other countries rated AAA, particularly in Europe as the UK or even France. This announcement will fuel fears of a contagion of degradation of notes, when the markets seemed to panic this week. In Italy and Spain (already degraded) in particular, tensions are rising, although they seem to be the new target markets. Moreover, the impact on the banks direct. They will have to review their capital allocation taking into account the appearance of more risky U.S. bonds they hold, as they impose the new international regulations, to strengthen the solvency of banks (Basel III).The recent bank stress tests, whose results were given there only three weeks, have already lost all credibility because they did not include either a restructuring of the Greek debt, or a deterioration note the United States.

Why such a lowering of note can threaten the global economy?

When the debt rating of long-term decline in the U.S., this means that more may not be refunded if the creditor is. However, the markets, the risk is remunerated by interest rates: if I am less sure of being repaid, so I request a higher rate. Thus, losing the "AAA", the U.S. interest rates at 5 years, 10, 20, 30, will mechanically increase.And if rates rise, it's a downward spiral of investment and consumption that will engage, which produces more unemployment, less tax revenue and public expenditure. This government deficits widen further, and sovereign debt. But during the past two weeks very turbulent markets, the U.S. long rates remained very low. There have never been so low, a sign of investor confidence.

There is still a little time, no one imagined the United States lose their AAA. How did they get there?

The problem the U.S. is that they have more flexibility, or a monetary point of view, or budget.On the one hand, monetary policy can not be more accommodating, having pumped billions and billions of dollars of liquidity into the markets and set the interest rate floor (they are between 0% and 0.5 %) to restore the U.S. economy weighed down by the subprime crisis that has capitulated Lehman Brothers, three years ago. On the other, public spending has been poorly controlled, while the U.S. tax burden is already high. Difficult in these conditions for fiscal consolidation.

It is like in Japan twenty years ago …

Exactly, you are right in the Japanese-style scenario. The United States could enter a situation of liquidity trap in which Japan was mired in the 1990s, but never really escape. Rates were zero and sluggish growth, while prices fell, leaving Japan trapped.United States, the U.S. central bank, the Fed is now more capable of supporting the U.S. economy, which has not really recovered from the crisis, according to the latest statistics. Growth for 2011 looks less than expected, despite the monetary support giant that has been deployed. It remains to be seen whether this will result in deflation (lower prices) or if inflation will return. The best case scenario would be the second, to prevent the United States is experiencing a "lost decade" in Japan.

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Relief. Is the word that should prevail today on all global exchanges, after U.S. lawmakers passed this night finally put to agree on raising the debt ceiling. At 8:15, future contracts on the CAC 40 advanced sharply from 1.39% to 3724.50 points.

Last week, the inability of the United States to solve the problem of public finances had weighed on investor sentiment. In Paris the CAC 40 was indeed touched its lowest level in session year (3,630.75 points), while Wall Street finished its worst week in a year, despite the intervention of Obama Friday in an attempt to reassure debt.

After the relief 10 days ago on Greek sovereign debt, the calm would return to the Paris financial center.After weeks of negotiations, elected Democrats and Republicans have indeed finally found common ground on the amount of new ceiling, avoiding the world's largest economy is in default of payment in the coming days. According to preliminary information provided by the White House, the debt ceiling would be raised to 2.1 trillion dollars, which breathe new life in the United States on the forehead of the debt until 2013, after the presidential elections. This agreement in principle will also enable the countries to continue to borrow on the markets beyond the August 2 deadline set by the Treasury.

The reaction of rating agencies expected

On the other hand, no excessive optimism are to be expected in the financial markets today, at least until the U.S. Congress has not ratified the agreement. The first submission is expected to vote that day.Furthermore, few details have yet filtered on measures taken to reduce the deficit in the U.S., which does not exclude the possibility of deterioration in the rating of the sovereign debt of the United States.

For now, the first tranche of spending cuts of $ 1 trillion is expected. Then a bipartisan special committee of Congress will then be responsible for finding the end of November additional expenditure cuts amounting to 1.5 trillion dollars. A total of 2.5 trillion dollars in budget cuts, all over 10 years. From this point of view, the reaction of rating agencies in this agreement called the "medium term" should be widely followed by the markets.

On the currency front, the dollar has benefited only modestly from the announcement of the night, illustrating the temporary nature of such an agreement.At 8 am, the euro fell slightly (-0.13%) against the greenback at 1.4385 dollar, while it bounces against the yen. Around 6:00, the dollar stood at 76.73 yen 77.58 yen against Friday night cash advance in one hour.

In terms of oil prices were up Monday morning in electronic trading in Asia, where the market relieved by this agreement in extremis. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery gained 1.53 dollars to 97.23 dollars. That of Brent North Sea crude for September delivery was appreciating $ 1.25 dollar to 117.99.

Macroeconomic side, investors should look carefully at the unemployment figures for the month of June Overseas are also expected to 4:00 p.m. construction spending for the month of June, the ISM manufacturing index for July.

As for values ​​to follow

Last week, the many semi-annual publications were rather disappointing, adding to the nervousness of investors. The pace slows publications this week, though are expected in the next three days the details of the interim bank values ​​(Tuesday BNP Paribas, Societe Generale on Wednesday and Thursday Axa and Natixis).

Eiffage reported a slight slowdown in growth in the second quarter despite a sharp rebound from its construction activities, the division of public works who registered a decrease over the period.

Outremer Telecom. A draft tender offer simplified to the telecom operator was introduced by OMT Invest, a structure controlled by Axa Private Equity, according to a notice to the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) and released Friday.

EDF Energies Nouvelles (EDF ENR) has entered into exclusive negotiations with Capital Perceva to cede control of Supra, the fund feeds the project to file a simplified takeover bid at the end of the process.

General Health issued a sharp drop in operating profit in the first half due to exceptional items, but its revenue rose due to higher acute care stays.

Recylex published Friday sales for the second quarter increased significantly, from 32% to 125.34 million euros, supported by an increase of 48% of its business in recycling lead thanks to rising 16 % of lead prices and increased sales volumes.

Air Liquide. The gas giant reported Monday a 11% increase in net profit in the first half, to 750 million euros.It maintained its forecast a "steady increase" in net profit for the year.

Note that Gameloft will publish its interim results after market close, while Le Noble Age unveil at the same time state sales for the same period. The British bank HSBC, which is listed in Paris, finally published its results for the first six months of the year.

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In the case of debt, time is a luxury that the United States as Europe can not afford. This is the message sent Tuesday by Christine Lagarde, director of the International Monetary Fund. Welcoming the plan against the crisis of the Greek debt presented Thursday by EU leaders, the French hoped "that these bold steps will be followed in the United States and that action in the fiscal area will occur as quickly as possible."

In Washington, "the clock is forever and you really find a solution," insisted Christine Lagarde. Democrats and Republicans can not agree on U.S. debt, then that must be addressed prior to August 2 the maximum amount that the state can borrow in the markets (the ceiling of the debt). Otherwise the U.S. will not reimburse investors.

"Having a default or a significant reduction in the rating assigned to the signing of the United States, an event would be very, very, very serious. Not for the U.S. only, but for the world economy in general, "said the leader of the IMF. In the longer term, the IMF has asked the United States Monday to hand over "the debt to a sustainable path." U.S. debt until recently was considered by investors as an investment "safe".

If it is proved otherwise, the consequences could be incalculable. The United States "can not default on their obligations," said John Boehner, a Republican official in Congress. "The jobs and savings of too many Americans (are) in."

Threat of 'turbulence'

Europe is no exception.After the summit on Thursday, the leaders of the euro area should continue their efforts, Christine Lagarde warned: "The plan was welcomed by financial markets, as evidenced by the stronger euro and lower spreads rates on bonds of the periphery. But the turmoil could easily reappear. For this reason it is essential that the commitments of the summit are implemented quickly. "

Problem: The plan must be submitted to national parliaments for approval. "This will be done in the coming weeks. This will not happen overnight because, as is often the case in many developed economies of the Northern Hemisphere, August is relatively calm. And parliaments are closed, "admitted the director of the IMF. But Europeans do not have the luxury of taking their time.I think there is an expectation that things should move forward and be implemented not only by the countries directly concerned but also by governments who, as I said, kept their promises. "

To help stem the debt crisis, the IMF disbursed $ 330 billion to date, also recalled Christine Lagarde. Given this fact, the IMF might have to seek new funds to its member countries, its director admitted: "In the not too distant future we will probably take an interest in this issue."

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Time is running out. While the U.S. may be in default of payment if no agreement is reached on the debt by August 2, Barack Obama issued an ultimatum. Before starting a meeting in 75 minutes Sunday night with parliamentarians, the U.S. president and said "must" that Congress reached agreement on the debt within 10 days.

After discussions between key leaders of Congress – Democrats at the head of the Senate and the Republican majority in the House of Representatives – Barack Obama said he will hold a press conference Monday at 17 noon, Paris. The negotiations between elected to continue thereafter.MPs also plan to meet every day until they reach an agreement, says Bloomberg.

Despite the optimism displayed by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who believes that "the U.S. will not default," the discussions on key topics such as tax increases or program of government spending have little progressed. Republicans and Democrats continue to disagree on the remedies to lower debt. "It is appalling that the president and his party continues to insist on the need to raise taxes in a crisis when they refuse to reduce spending," said the spokesman of the Republican minority in the Senate at the end of meeting Sunday night.For her part, Nancy Pelosi, representative of the minority Democrats in the House of Representatives, is confident that "a consensual agreement is reached (…) it could, she says," include more cuts in public spending but on a longer period. " But she says being uncomfortable with the idea of ​​"saving billions of public health."

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At least fifteen days of its entry into force, the "Google tax" does not ultimately see the day. This is the conclusion of a battle of several months, after the Senate's budget rapporteur Philippe Marini (UMP) withdrew his amendment yesterday to tax by 1 July up to 1%, advertising revenues business generated by online advertising. Adopted at the end of last year by the Senate as part of the proposed budget law for 2011, it was later removed when the collective review on first reading by the National Assembly. With the withdrawal of the amendment Marini, the restoration of this measure is therefore definitely thrown to the wayside.

Illustrating the arguments in favor of setting up the device, the centrist President of the Committee on Finance, Jean Arthuis regretted that choice. "Google does not pay taxes in countries where there is profit.Attention, so does the return to balance public finances and respect for our trajectory, "he said Tuesday. This tax, incorrectly called "Google", companies are taxed advertisers and not portals, would bring a little more than 20 million to state coffers. Several players saw this device the way to avoid tax evasion of income generated in France by Internet groups domiciled in other countries. For example, advertisers of Google domiciled in Ireland, escaped to the French tax.

Disappointments for other organizations, who hoped, through this measure, access to new resources to finance the creation free business cards. This is the case of the Society of Dramatic Authors and Composers (SACD), which campaigns since 2007 for the introduction of this tax, hoping of course to be part of the beneficiaries.

Taxation envisaged at European level

Relief on the contrary side of the digital players, for which such tax could hinder the development of a growing industry. The recent National Council of Digital (CNN) had indeed heard his opposition to the project. For its part, the Association of Community Internet Services (ASIC) in a statement welcomed the choice of the Senate "to preserve the French digital economy," avoiding "the potentially heavy burden on the shoulders of the few French companies, penalizing especially small and very small. "A relayed spoke about Senator Catherine Morin-Desailly, who denounced a tax against-productive: "It would be paid by advertisers, not by the large international groups, Google, Facebook, which were located in countries with attractive tax" has She stated Tuesday.

Remains that the taxation of Internet giants is not totally abandoned. Budget Minister Baroin invoked for the possibility to reflect on actions at EU level. "The government has pledged to establish conditions for a European standard for a tax on a broad base, without waiting for the G20," he developed Tuesday. An argument inadmissible under Jean Arthuis, for whom total absence of tax harmonization in Europe would only bury the project.

Spring 2011 is the warmest spring (+2.6 ° C) since the beginning of the twentieth century, surpassing 2007 (+2.1 ° C) and 2003 (+1.8 ° C). The lack of rainfall between March and May 2011 (deficit of 55%) is also the largest before 1976 (46%) and 1997 (40%).

Result: the vine is ahead. Flowering, key moment, arrived three weeks early. According to the adage, the harvest takes place one hundred days later, the Beaujolais expects to harvest around 15 August, the Bordeaux and Burgundy in late August.

First question: the heat and drought are they harmful to the vine? In principle, no. The vine is a perennial plant with long roots, sometimes over 10 m, which are immune to the vagaries of weather: it is only the first foot of land that are dry.Only the vines suffer not worked and amended with very shallow roots.

We therefore takes a great vintage? Is going a bit far, because spring is not only the result. Moreover, in recent vintages hot, 2007 has not left a great memory, because the summer was wet and ruined the great hopes of the Champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy, among others. Everywhere, 2007 are to drink, and only Sauternes and some great Rhone wines, especially side Chateauneuf-du-Pape, save the reputation of the vintage.

As for the 2003 vintage, with its very short growing season, it remains a curiosity, because with the hot clouds an average but the wines are of low acidity. At birth, the great Bordeaux had raised the enthusiasm of a few tasters, especially overseas, and prices had skyrocketed.But today, the big bottles are rare, first quantitatively, because the harvest was reduced, and they do not shine by their qualities. Those who blindly follow the sirens Bordeaux were fooled. It goes back to 1893 or to 1811 for a hot high quality, but primarily because the weather was dry.

Lower yield

Drought, it should not be confused with heat, produces other effects personal loans for bad credit. The concentration is generally at the rendezvous, but with diminishing returns. The year 1976, which is included in the collective unconscious with his "drought tax" does not figure in the pantheon of great vintages, came too late because the rain has swelled the grapes. In contrast, small droughts have resulted in some recent vintages, like 2005 and 2009.But not too much should not, because it can harden the wines, as in 2010.

For now, the drought of 2011 is not worrying at all, and the vine does not suffer. All the more she has spread the bloom in some places, which is still not a good sign for the quality of the vintage. If it lasts for another month or two, the vine will slow its growth and lead to smaller bays, resulting in a lower yield.

However, "until there is no rain, no need to treat, philosopher producer. The vines are planted on soils with good moisture capacity, which saves them. "Because, contrary to conventional wisdom, it is not enough sun and heat to make great wines, and even wine while short, seeing as Australian producers, who had been seduced by the warm valleys they are forced to abandon due to lack of water.Even with irrigation, there are no great wines in the deserts.

In the New World, the science of irrigation, source of many theses and a large number of studies, has made tremendous progress, but not enough to work miracles. Good wine, let alone the great wines, the result of a complex alchemy between the sun, temperature and water from the sky just as we must, with consummate skill and suspense.

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It unanimously that members have voted to delete one of the cornerstone of the quinquennium of Nicolas Sarkozy. On the night of Friday to Saturday at a little over two hours of the morning, the parliamentarians adopted rule repealing the tax shield, established in 2007 to limit to 50% income taxation. All of the supplementary budget will in turn be a formal vote on Tuesday afternoon.

Strongly contested by the opposition and discussed in the majority, sending checks every year to the wealthiest taxpayers had come to interfere with government. In 2010, a total of 678 million euros that the state has returned to the beneficiaries of this measure, a figure slightly higher than in 2009 (EUR 586 million). Especially, like last year, is only a small fraction of some 592,000 taxpayers subject to the ISF who earned the largest amounts recovered.If the amount of average check totaled 40,908 euros, the richest 7% received 60% of the amount paid, or 381,000 euros on average.

To the dismay of Socialist deputies, the government's plan, however, does not remove the tax shield that from 2012 on taxes paid on income in 2011. According to the deputy PS Jerome Cahuzac, the measure should thus continue to cost the public finances 550 million Euros in 2012 and 200 million in 2013.

Relief ISF

The elimination of this symbolic mandate Nicolas Sarkozy also fits into the context of a broader reform of the taxation of wealth, the members approved each measure in recent days. To parliamentarians, the Minister of Budget, Baroin, endeavored to describe the philosophy of combining text as "social justice" (the end of the tax shield) and "tax justice" (relief ISF) short term personal loan."The government is a simple reform, fair and balanced" has said repeatedly this week Baroin.

On Friday, the parliamentarians approved a reform of the solidarity tax on wealth (ISF), which raises € 800,000 to 1.3 million euros threshold of assets at which a taxpayer is taxable to the ISF. Approximately 300,000 people should therefore be exempt from this tax next year. The current rate also eased: below three million, the tax rate increased from 0.55% to 0.25% when it is lowered to 0.5% instead of 1.8 % above. Overall, 250,000 taxpayers should therefore pay less. This reform will result in a revenue decline of 1.8 billion euros.

A shortfall that is projected by the government, be offset by the elimination of the tax shield, the higher taxes on gifts and estates, and the new tax on second homes of strangers, sitting on their rental value. In total, the projected deficit for 2011 however, increases of 596 million euros, 460 million due to payments associated with the Taiwan frigates affair. Remain a little over 130 million bridge to return to the original projected deficit. Baroin promised by the end of the year new savings measures to achieve this.

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