Current News Headlines

After finishing the day in the green yesterday, gaining 1.50% to 2984 points, the CAC 40 tackles the session close to balance, falling symbolically 0.04%% to 2982.86 points on Wednesday, pending an important decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). After a two-day meeting, the institution is expected to announce measures to support the U.S. economy. The wait seems high, especially since the day before, the International Monetary Fund has raised the specter of a recession in the world by launching "a strong call to action" at the announcement of its lower growth forecasts for the global economy. This should amount to 4% for both 2011 and for 2012, 0.5 points less than the 4.5% announced in April.However, "given the weakness in economic indicators, it is almost certain that the Fed will do something but it is difficult to know exactly what," noted economists from Capital Economics.

Investors should in all cases be cautious on the Old Continent, especially after the deterioration of the Italian sovereign debt on Tuesday, which must be added the absence of a clear response from the area in the euro area on the Greek crisis. The conference held the day before between the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the heads of mission of the "troika" of the creditors of the country has still not been completed. Only "good progress has been made," the European Commission ruled in a statement. Yet it must release the next tranche of aid and vital in Athens 8 billion euros.The Greek authorities are pressed by their foreign creditors to accelerate the reduction of budgetary expenditures, while the other side, protesters denounced the daily ravages of austerity.

Brazil could help the euro area

In addition, the Greek daily Kathimerini Athens unveiled Tuesday would consider holding a referendum on the continuation of Greece in the euro area to strengthen its legitimacy in its management of the debt crisis. A bill prior to the referendum would be discussed in the coming days, the newspaper said, quoting unspecified sources.Athens, however, denied such a referendum.

While the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) had indicated last week the possibility of supporting the euro area by increasing their holdings of bonds, the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, confirmed this position at Barack Obama on Wednesday at a meeting in New York.

On the macroeconomic front, the United States, home resales for the month of August are expected in 16 hours as the weekly inventory of crude oil at 16.30.

In Britain, the public finance figures for August are expected.

In Italy, the current account balance for the month of July will be published.

In Japan, foreign trade figures for August will also be unveiled.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remained stable against the dollar Wednesday after Greece has reported "satisfactory progress" with the troika of creditors, but the markets remained nervous awaiting the announcements of the Fed . Around 8 am, the European currency was worth 1.3703 dollars against 1.3702 dollars the night before.

As for oil, it was down Wednesday morning in a market desperate to face the crisis of debt in the euro area, pending a decision by the Fed to promote economic recovery of the largest consumer of crude in the world.In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery gave up 53 cents to 86.38 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery lost 37 cents to 110.17 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• Banking

After the degradation of Italian sovereign debt, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas, which are exposed, will still be observed.

Attention will also Dexia, which would have allowed for 25 billion euros in loans toxic entities in 5500, according to Liberation.The additional cost of these credits was estimated at 3.9 billion euros at the end of 2009.

• Bouygues

The group filed with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) the prospectus of the takeover of shares of € 1.25 billion announced on August 31, at 30 euros per share.

• Saffron

The aerospace equipment mandated banks Mediobanca and UBS to bid for the Italian manufacturer of aircraft engines Avio, reports the newspaper front page.

• Canal +

The Competition Authority decided Wednesday to withdraw the decision to authorize the merger of satellite packages CanalSat and TPS, completed in 2007, finding that Canal Plus had "failed to comply with a number of commitments" made to avoid misuse its dominant position.Groupe Canal Plus also sees a fine of 30 million euros.

• JCDecaux

According to Les Echos, the group won an exclusive contract advertising on two subway lines in Chongqing in China for a period of 15 years, but did not disclose financial details.

• Le Noble Age

The company announced in a press up all its results in the 1st half (34% to 3.68 million euros for the net) and confirmed the increase in its forecast of EBITDAR margin ( Operating income before depreciation, amortization and rent) at cruising speed greater than 27% by year end.

This year again, the market shelves is essentially … the Apple iPad, despite an influx of competing products on the market. "Other manufacturers are struggling to create the right set-shelf applications to counter Apple," says Kirk Campbell, CEO of IDC. Samsung advanced course in second place world ranking producers of tablets, but it is still far behind the iPad. "RIM, the maker of BlackBerry, will come with an improved product. It retains its chances of success, "said the boss of IDC, while sales of PlayBook, the first tablet of RIM, have not changed the world rankings.

"There's always room for one leader in the business world," said Kirk Campbell.Indeed, users have iPads'm more likely to want to use it in a professional, IT departments are often the resistance, finding the subject too insecure. "The market remains very open shelves and Apple will sell mechanically market share," said Kirk Campbell. However, the firm at the apple still have good days ahead. If Microsoft Tuesday unveiled a new Windows Tablet 8 can equip, no product should be on the market before the end of 2012. Accordingly, IDC does not anticipate any real rebound in the PC market before that date.Then, computer sales are expected to further growth in France, with the arrival of the new Windows, but also new forms of computers and especially ultrabooks These extra thin and light PC Faxless payday loans.

Sales of smartphones are also expected to continue to grow, reaching four billion euros, an increase of 33% at the end of 2011. About 12 million handsets will be sold in France this year. "This increase meets the mobility needs of consumers," said Kirk Campbell, for whom the main battle takes place on the side of operational systems. If for the moment the landscape is dominated by IOS (Apple) and Android (Google), "there is room for five or six players, according to Kirk Campbell. There will be regional solutions. Remember that the Chinese are still not entered the race. "In France, Bada, the operating system from Samsung that plays the third male. Korean is also passed by Apple in July. Android now holds more than 50% of the French market of smartphone sales, against 17.7% for Bada (which equips Samsung Wave) and 17% for iOS Apple.

"The future cars will be connected devices" said Kirk Campbell, who predicted the establishment of a new economic model that would allow manufacturers to generate recurring revenue by selling subscription services. Ford has already extensively engaged in this way with Sync.

The debt crisis turns to Greek tragedy and psychodrama. Tuesday night, a committee of experts of Parliament in an official report revealed that the country's debt was "out of control." The next day, denial and criticism rang out, Evangelos Venizelos, the Finance Minister did not mince words, stating that these auditors did not have "neither the knowledge nor the experience nor the necessary responsibility to judge the debt ", a few hours later, the director of the parliamentary commission complained resigned.

Stock market crash

Friday, an additional layer was taken with the surprise announcement of the suspension for ten days, the mission started in Athens earlier this week by experts from the troika (EU, ECB and International Monetary Fund).This sudden departure caused an outcry in the country and the stock market plummeted at the opening, causing the European financial centers in its wake. The finance minister has tried to downplay the event: "There was no rupture of discussions between the country and the Troika," he said. But Evangelos Venizelos has failed to convince, especially as he admitted, following that "Greece will not hold its goals of reducing the public deficit in 2011 due to the deepening recession in the country. " GDP is forecast to decline by at least 5% this year, the government now provides, which leads mechanically to predict a deficit of 8.8% of GDP at end 2011, against a previous estimate of 7.4%.

It is a fact, almost a year and a half after the introduction of the first austerity plan, Greece is again up against the wall.The austerity measures have led to a sharp recession and sealed growth, competitiveness and production. The unemployment rate reached 16.6% last month. "The committee was right. The debt is really out of control because it is growing and will continue to grow, "Analysis Stefanos Manos, a former finance minister credit reports free. "It is sad to see that the government did nothing for months. No reform of the state system, not privatization, but only the imposition of taxes and cuts in wages! There are more public spending in 2009, before the crisis, he said. This time, it is urgent, bankruptcy is just around the nose. International leaders must tap your feet.They should refuse to grant the sixth installment of the loan of 110 billion euros granted to Greece if these measures are not implemented. "This is probably the direction of the departure of the troika, which means by this dramatic move to the pressure on the government.

But this game of poker liar weary Greeks who bear the brunt of austerity. Last significant extent, the increase in VAT in catering from 13 to 23%. "A step too far, according to Giorgos Delastik, a political analyst. The Greeks are exhausted. They think that especially in terms of rigor is not applied the right way to save their country from the crisis, just as Ireland and Portugal. "

Strikes and demonstrations were not long in coming. After the Athens metro and teachers, the outraged calls for a mobilization in Parliament tonight.Ilias Iliopoulos for general secretary of the union officials, the Greeks played their all. "We are on the verge of a social explosion," said he. "In 2010, when the deficit would be reduced by five points, the Greeks had to make huge sacrifices. Today, they can not accept other measures or new cuts on wages. " However, the troika request 2.5 billion savings by the end of the year. The authorities now fear having barely contain the anger of the Greeks, who was radicalized after the summer break.

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Washington, our correspondent

Dominique Strauss-Kahn said goodbye as expected Monday afternoon in Washington with his colleagues in the IMF. Refusing to say more, the spokesman confirmed that DSK was also "briefly" met with Christine Lagarde before. It was "private meetings" held at the request of DSK and that the press was not invited.

The IMF staff was asked to say "goodbye" in a room usually devoted to the headquarters press conferences. Tea and coffee were served. Dominique Strauss-Kahn is mounted on the platform to speak for ten minutes. He wanted not only to greet his colleagues, but he also apologized twice "for the harm done" to the institution.

A lot of people to greet him was in a hurry. "Several hundred" witnesses said. "He was applauded.The atmosphere was warm, "commented one frame. Many, especially women, especially African, wanted to be photographed with him.

DSK told his audience of the importance of imagination in the IMF mission. He also said that if their recommendations had been followed eight months ago, Europe would not be where it is today.

A popular leader

The ousted boss of the IMF gave no indication of its political intentions or professional on his return to France. He however praised the speech made Saturday by Christine Lagarde warned that the G20 leaders risk of relapse into recession and the need to practice in the short term even the stimulus spending quick cash.

The former CEO had arrived with his wife Anne Sinclair to 3:30 p.m. at the wheel of his Audi.He chose to enter quietly through the underground garage and left the same way.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn was popular with staff. He recognized great qualities to have changed the image and practices of the IMF during the financial crisis. The institution is now much more visible in debates on the reforms to be implemented to combat the crisis. It is emerging as a kind of secretarial and "think tank" of the G20, while providing enormous resources urgently to stabilize countries in crisis.

Critics of economic policies made by the IMF are more biting than in the past. The contribution of funds to support plans to indebted countries in the euro area is crucial, both in terms of funding and conditionality. Provided the results of these plans are not yet up to the expectations.And recommendations to the rich countries do not seem to be better monitored than before.

Employees recognize the IMF provided that their favorite patron has made huge mistakes personal trial and that the abandonment of criminal proceedings against him can not be the "whitening" or erase their mistakes.

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The speech will be delivered to a very limited audience, but it will be heard by the entire financial world. The head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, will speak on Friday afternoon (French time) to his counterparts at the traditional central bankers in Jackson Hole Symposium, Wyoming.

While the U.S. economy slows dangerously, investors expect a tough response from the Fed. But they may be disappointed because, faced with two problems, the central bank runs out of ammunition.

Misdiagnosis

First, Ben Bernanke erred in economic diagnosis. He underestimated his own admission, the low growth in the first half and was counting on a rebound in demand in the second, which for now does not materialize.Problem with its main policy rate at zero since December 2008, the Fed has little room to revive again the supply of credit. Some members of the Monetary Committee refuses to go further. Among the reluctant, Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed. It is estimated that on August 9 promises to continue until mid-2013 interest rates unusually low, the Fed made a mistake: the promise deters businesses and individuals to borrow quickly as they know that the rates are not nearly up.

So what can Ben Bernanke promised? The resumption of purchases of long-term bonds the Treasury is the preferred option by the markets. But given the high level of inflation, the method is risky.In addition, low interest rates leaves little hope that this new "quantitative easing" has a significant effect on credit supply.

Ben Bernanke should focus on technical measures. The Fed could cut the compensation of bank reserves. It would be a way to push banks to lend rather than storing their cash with her. The second measure seeks to change more or less gradually the composition of its balance sheet, which reached 2.7 trillion dollars. To maintain long-term rates as low as possible, the Fed may decide to increase the proportion of its balance sheet invested in long-term securities, while reducing the one placed in short-term securities. The decline in long rates will encourage companies and individuals to refinance their debts and support the real estate.

Japan is recovering slowly from the disaster of 11 March. On Monday, the government announced a slowdown of 0.3% of GDP in the second quarter. But this decline, of 1.3% annualized, less than analysts' forecasts which projected a contraction of 0.7%. It also shows a marked improvement over the 0.9% decline the previous quarter cashed.

Between April and June, exports fell sharply by 4.9% and is the main factor in the decline. During this period, deliveries of goods have been hampered by the destruction of factories and infrastructure in the devastated areas of north-east of the archipelago. Breaks in the supply chain were found in the key sectors of the automobile and electronics exports pillars.Industrial activity has also been slowed by the nuclear accident in Fukushima that led to the arrest of a significant portion of the reactor pool and therefore a fall in electricity production.

The downward trend was further accentuated by a decline of 1.9% of private real estate investment and a 0.1% decline in consumption. The trauma of the disaster, which killed more than 20,000 dead or missing, has indeed led the Japanese citizens to exercise restraint for several weeks, slowing private consumption, which is usually an engine of growth online cash advance. This slowdown was partly offset by the increase of 3% of public investment.

"We will rebuild Japan"

To observers, this leaves the second quarter, however, consider a rapid improvement in the Japanese economy."If the economy is improving as it takes shape in some respects, it is possible that growth back at the period from July to September", commented Takeshi Minami, an economist at the Institute Norinchukin whose opinion joined the Minister of Finance, Yoshihiko Noda.

For his part, Prime Minister Naoto Kan took advantage of the sixty-sixth anniversary of the surrender of Japan to promise an improvement in the economy. "Our country has emerged from the ruins of war through the efforts of every citizen and overcame many difficulties to date. With these experiences, we will rebuild with determination and force the devastated areas and Japan. "

These remarks have convinced the Asian markets on Monday morning.At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei has closed the day on a sharp increase from 1.37% to 9086.41 points.

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The Asian market does not yield to panic. After closing up slightly Wednesday, several Asian stock markets are divided down Thursday, but less pronounced than Wall Street and in Europe the day before. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 is again in the red, falling 1.04% to 8945.12 points after finishing up 1.05% yesterday.

Of the places in China, Hong Kong the Hang Seng 1.45% yield while the composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.68% to 1134.65 points. In Seoul, the Kospi index is left in the green, up 0.71% to 1819.14 points after plunging by 4% in early trade.

Investors remain concerned, however, fearing another recession in the United States and a spillover of the crisis of debt in the eurozone payday loan lenders. The gold and reached new records, crossing first the maximum 1800 dollars.It was worth 1814.50 dollars in the morning before going down to 1785 dollars. Another safe haven, the yen appreciates, and is worth 76.63 dollars, against 76.83 the previous day.

Oil also set off again down in Asia. Yet he had resisted the panic the day before with the announcement of a dramatic and unexpected decline in crude inventories in the United States. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" lost 79 cents to 82.10 dollars and that of Brent North Sea fell by 1.10 dollars to 105.58 dollars.

.

In the night from Friday to Saturday, S & P downgraded the rating of the United States, from "AAA" to "AA +". This historic announcement, which comes as the markets have closed a black week, plunged the financial world into the unknown. Munis Hassim, professor at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, explains why such degradation threatens the U.S. economy, the first world power, and identifies the situation to that of Japan in the 1990s.

Is the degradation of the notes of the United States plunges us into a new crisis?

The fact that the United States lose their triple-A means that they have a slightly higher probability of defaulting. But by switching to "AA +", this probability is very low. Moreover, experts and analysts do not believe at all a failure to pay the largest economy in the world. So there is no reason to panic.However, the multiple consequences which such degradation can they prove to be very disturbing.

For example?

The fact that S & P has dared to sacrifice the American note puts enormous pressure on other countries rated AAA, particularly in Europe as the UK or even France. This announcement will fuel fears of a contagion of degradation of notes, when the markets seemed to panic this week. In Italy and Spain (already degraded) in particular, tensions are rising, although they seem to be the new target markets. Moreover, the impact on the banks direct. They will have to review their capital allocation taking into account the appearance of more risky U.S. bonds they hold, as they impose the new international regulations, to strengthen the solvency of banks (Basel III).The recent bank stress tests, whose results were given there only three weeks, have already lost all credibility because they did not include either a restructuring of the Greek debt, or a deterioration note the United States.

Why such a lowering of note can threaten the global economy?

When the debt rating of long-term decline in the U.S., this means that more may not be refunded if the creditor is. However, the markets, the risk is remunerated by interest rates: if I am less sure of being repaid, so I request a higher rate. Thus, losing the "AAA", the U.S. interest rates at 5 years, 10, 20, 30, will mechanically increase.And if rates rise, it's a downward spiral of investment and consumption that will engage, which produces more unemployment, less tax revenue and public expenditure. This government deficits widen further, and sovereign debt. But during the past two weeks very turbulent markets, the U.S. long rates remained very low. There have never been so low, a sign of investor confidence.

There is still a little time, no one imagined the United States lose their AAA. How did they get there?

The problem the U.S. is that they have more flexibility, or a monetary point of view, or budget.On the one hand, monetary policy can not be more accommodating, having pumped billions and billions of dollars of liquidity into the markets and set the interest rate floor (they are between 0% and 0.5 %) to restore the U.S. economy weighed down by the subprime crisis that has capitulated Lehman Brothers, three years ago. On the other, public spending has been poorly controlled, while the U.S. tax burden is already high. Difficult in these conditions for fiscal consolidation.

It is like in Japan twenty years ago …

Exactly, you are right in the Japanese-style scenario. The United States could enter a situation of liquidity trap in which Japan was mired in the 1990s, but never really escape. Rates were zero and sluggish growth, while prices fell, leaving Japan trapped.United States, the U.S. central bank, the Fed is now more capable of supporting the U.S. economy, which has not really recovered from the crisis, according to the latest statistics. Growth for 2011 looks less than expected, despite the monetary support giant that has been deployed. It remains to be seen whether this will result in deflation (lower prices) or if inflation will return. The best case scenario would be the second, to prevent the United States is experiencing a "lost decade" in Japan.

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Relief. Is the word that should prevail today on all global exchanges, after U.S. lawmakers passed this night finally put to agree on raising the debt ceiling. At 8:15, future contracts on the CAC 40 advanced sharply from 1.39% to 3724.50 points.

Last week, the inability of the United States to solve the problem of public finances had weighed on investor sentiment. In Paris the CAC 40 was indeed touched its lowest level in session year (3,630.75 points), while Wall Street finished its worst week in a year, despite the intervention of Obama Friday in an attempt to reassure debt.

After the relief 10 days ago on Greek sovereign debt, the calm would return to the Paris financial center.After weeks of negotiations, elected Democrats and Republicans have indeed finally found common ground on the amount of new ceiling, avoiding the world's largest economy is in default of payment in the coming days. According to preliminary information provided by the White House, the debt ceiling would be raised to 2.1 trillion dollars, which breathe new life in the United States on the forehead of the debt until 2013, after the presidential elections. This agreement in principle will also enable the countries to continue to borrow on the markets beyond the August 2 deadline set by the Treasury.

The reaction of rating agencies expected

On the other hand, no excessive optimism are to be expected in the financial markets today, at least until the U.S. Congress has not ratified the agreement. The first submission is expected to vote that day.Furthermore, few details have yet filtered on measures taken to reduce the deficit in the U.S., which does not exclude the possibility of deterioration in the rating of the sovereign debt of the United States.

For now, the first tranche of spending cuts of $ 1 trillion is expected. Then a bipartisan special committee of Congress will then be responsible for finding the end of November additional expenditure cuts amounting to 1.5 trillion dollars. A total of 2.5 trillion dollars in budget cuts, all over 10 years. From this point of view, the reaction of rating agencies in this agreement called the "medium term" should be widely followed by the markets.

On the currency front, the dollar has benefited only modestly from the announcement of the night, illustrating the temporary nature of such an agreement.At 8 am, the euro fell slightly (-0.13%) against the greenback at 1.4385 dollar, while it bounces against the yen. Around 6:00, the dollar stood at 76.73 yen 77.58 yen against Friday night cash advance in one hour.

In terms of oil prices were up Monday morning in electronic trading in Asia, where the market relieved by this agreement in extremis. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery gained 1.53 dollars to 97.23 dollars. That of Brent North Sea crude for September delivery was appreciating $ 1.25 dollar to 117.99.

Macroeconomic side, investors should look carefully at the unemployment figures for the month of June Overseas are also expected to 4:00 p.m. construction spending for the month of June, the ISM manufacturing index for July.

As for values ​​to follow

Last week, the many semi-annual publications were rather disappointing, adding to the nervousness of investors. The pace slows publications this week, though are expected in the next three days the details of the interim bank values ​​(Tuesday BNP Paribas, Societe Generale on Wednesday and Thursday Axa and Natixis).

Eiffage reported a slight slowdown in growth in the second quarter despite a sharp rebound from its construction activities, the division of public works who registered a decrease over the period.

Outremer Telecom. A draft tender offer simplified to the telecom operator was introduced by OMT Invest, a structure controlled by Axa Private Equity, according to a notice to the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) and released Friday.

EDF Energies Nouvelles (EDF ENR) has entered into exclusive negotiations with Capital Perceva to cede control of Supra, the fund feeds the project to file a simplified takeover bid at the end of the process.

General Health issued a sharp drop in operating profit in the first half due to exceptional items, but its revenue rose due to higher acute care stays.

Recylex published Friday sales for the second quarter increased significantly, from 32% to 125.34 million euros, supported by an increase of 48% of its business in recycling lead thanks to rising 16 % of lead prices and increased sales volumes.

Air Liquide. The gas giant reported Monday a 11% increase in net profit in the first half, to 750 million euros.It maintained its forecast a "steady increase" in net profit for the year.

Note that Gameloft will publish its interim results after market close, while Le Noble Age unveil at the same time state sales for the same period. The British bank HSBC, which is listed in Paris, finally published its results for the first six months of the year.

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In the case of debt, time is a luxury that the United States as Europe can not afford. This is the message sent Tuesday by Christine Lagarde, director of the International Monetary Fund. Welcoming the plan against the crisis of the Greek debt presented Thursday by EU leaders, the French hoped "that these bold steps will be followed in the United States and that action in the fiscal area will occur as quickly as possible."

In Washington, "the clock is forever and you really find a solution," insisted Christine Lagarde. Democrats and Republicans can not agree on U.S. debt, then that must be addressed prior to August 2 the maximum amount that the state can borrow in the markets (the ceiling of the debt). Otherwise the U.S. will not reimburse investors.

"Having a default or a significant reduction in the rating assigned to the signing of the United States, an event would be very, very, very serious. Not for the U.S. only, but for the world economy in general, "said the leader of the IMF. In the longer term, the IMF has asked the United States Monday to hand over "the debt to a sustainable path." U.S. debt until recently was considered by investors as an investment "safe".

If it is proved otherwise, the consequences could be incalculable. The United States "can not default on their obligations," said John Boehner, a Republican official in Congress. "The jobs and savings of too many Americans (are) in."

Threat of 'turbulence'

Europe is no exception.After the summit on Thursday, the leaders of the euro area should continue their efforts, Christine Lagarde warned: "The plan was welcomed by financial markets, as evidenced by the stronger euro and lower spreads rates on bonds of the periphery. But the turmoil could easily reappear. For this reason it is essential that the commitments of the summit are implemented quickly. "

Problem: The plan must be submitted to national parliaments for approval. "This will be done in the coming weeks. This will not happen overnight because, as is often the case in many developed economies of the Northern Hemisphere, August is relatively calm. And parliaments are closed, "admitted the director of the IMF. But Europeans do not have the luxury of taking their time.I think there is an expectation that things should move forward and be implemented not only by the countries directly concerned but also by governments who, as I said, kept their promises. "

To help stem the debt crisis, the IMF disbursed $ 330 billion to date, also recalled Christine Lagarde. Given this fact, the IMF might have to seek new funds to its member countries, its director admitted: "In the not too distant future we will probably take an interest in this issue."

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