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After finishing the day in the green yesterday, gaining 1.50% to 2984 points, the CAC 40 tackles the session close to balance, falling symbolically 0.04%% to 2982.86 points on Wednesday, pending an important decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). After a two-day meeting, the institution is expected to announce measures to support the U.S. economy. The wait seems high, especially since the day before, the International Monetary Fund has raised the specter of a recession in the world by launching "a strong call to action" at the announcement of its lower growth forecasts for the global economy. This should amount to 4% for both 2011 and for 2012, 0.5 points less than the 4.5% announced in April.However, "given the weakness in economic indicators, it is almost certain that the Fed will do something but it is difficult to know exactly what," noted economists from Capital Economics.

Investors should in all cases be cautious on the Old Continent, especially after the deterioration of the Italian sovereign debt on Tuesday, which must be added the absence of a clear response from the area in the euro area on the Greek crisis. The conference held the day before between the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the heads of mission of the "troika" of the creditors of the country has still not been completed. Only "good progress has been made," the European Commission ruled in a statement. Yet it must release the next tranche of aid and vital in Athens 8 billion euros.The Greek authorities are pressed by their foreign creditors to accelerate the reduction of budgetary expenditures, while the other side, protesters denounced the daily ravages of austerity.

Brazil could help the euro area

In addition, the Greek daily Kathimerini Athens unveiled Tuesday would consider holding a referendum on the continuation of Greece in the euro area to strengthen its legitimacy in its management of the debt crisis. A bill prior to the referendum would be discussed in the coming days, the newspaper said, quoting unspecified sources.Athens, however, denied such a referendum.

While the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) had indicated last week the possibility of supporting the euro area by increasing their holdings of bonds, the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, confirmed this position at Barack Obama on Wednesday at a meeting in New York.

On the macroeconomic front, the United States, home resales for the month of August are expected in 16 hours as the weekly inventory of crude oil at 16.30.

In Britain, the public finance figures for August are expected.

In Italy, the current account balance for the month of July will be published.

In Japan, foreign trade figures for August will also be unveiled.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remained stable against the dollar Wednesday after Greece has reported "satisfactory progress" with the troika of creditors, but the markets remained nervous awaiting the announcements of the Fed . Around 8 am, the European currency was worth 1.3703 dollars against 1.3702 dollars the night before.

As for oil, it was down Wednesday morning in a market desperate to face the crisis of debt in the euro area, pending a decision by the Fed to promote economic recovery of the largest consumer of crude in the world.In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery gave up 53 cents to 86.38 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery lost 37 cents to 110.17 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• Banking

After the degradation of Italian sovereign debt, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas, which are exposed, will still be observed.

Attention will also Dexia, which would have allowed for 25 billion euros in loans toxic entities in 5500, according to Liberation.The additional cost of these credits was estimated at 3.9 billion euros at the end of 2009.

• Bouygues

The group filed with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) the prospectus of the takeover of shares of € 1.25 billion announced on August 31, at 30 euros per share.

• Saffron

The aerospace equipment mandated banks Mediobanca and UBS to bid for the Italian manufacturer of aircraft engines Avio, reports the newspaper front page.

• Canal +

The Competition Authority decided Wednesday to withdraw the decision to authorize the merger of satellite packages CanalSat and TPS, completed in 2007, finding that Canal Plus had "failed to comply with a number of commitments" made to avoid misuse its dominant position.Groupe Canal Plus also sees a fine of 30 million euros.

• JCDecaux

According to Les Echos, the group won an exclusive contract advertising on two subway lines in Chongqing in China for a period of 15 years, but did not disclose financial details.

• Le Noble Age

The company announced in a press up all its results in the 1st half (34% to 3.68 million euros for the net) and confirmed the increase in its forecast of EBITDAR margin ( Operating income before depreciation, amortization and rent) at cruising speed greater than 27% by year end.

Twenty-four years after the first world held in New Zealand, rugby world last week signed a homecoming, celebrating the opening ceremony of the 7th edition of the World Cup. Certainly, in the meantime, the world of rugby has changed profoundly, from many countries in an amateur status to a professional model. However, the edition that has just begun in the land of long white cloud, earth history of the discipline, will not be remembered in terms of costs and economic benefits. New Zealand, a small country of 4.2 million inhabitants, has in fact not the same financial resources than previous organizers. Plunged into an economic crisis, it was also affected in February by an earthquake that devastated the city and the stage of Christchurch, the second largest city.What add to the bill related to the organization, and limit the financial benefits expected from the competition.

More limited carrying capacity

Estimates of the study Mastercard "Report on the economic impact of Rugby World: 2011 World Cup," the economic activity generated by the event is expected to reach $ 654 million (479 million), 18 % less than the 2007 edition in France. Main reason: the carrying capacity, especially in the stages are not the same. In New Zealand, the largest chamber (the Eden Park in Auckland) can accommodate 60,000 rugby fans. This figure drops to 40,000 for the second largest stadium. In total, only five of the twelve speakers in the competition beyond the 30,000 seats. In France in 2007, all exceeded the 32,000 seats.Enough to blow up the number of tickets sold in the Hexagon at 2.25 million, against 1.35 million sold in 2011 according to MasterCard. Next visitors, a double standard as well, since 95,000 fans are expected in the country of Blacks against more than 325,000 in 2007.

Overall, the economic impact of the sixth edition of Rugby World Cup in 2007 was estimated at 540 million euros, of which over 85% from the tourism (spending by spectators, lodging, drinks, souvenirs …). A record that does not beat New Zealand in terms of direct benefits. It remains to know the net financial gain from the competition.Those of this edition will not be known precisely until a few weeks, but we know already that they will be affected by 550 million euros spent on building or renovating stadiums, where France had limited its expenses (most stadiums were renovated for the World Cup soccer in 1998). The catastrophe of Christchurch should also weigh on the accounts. In 2007, net income of the competition had reached about 113 million euros, while New Zealand could lose money on this event.

The hearing will be at the rendezvous

The only consolation for the organizers of New Zealand against the semi-economic success: the increasing popularity of the rugby world should not be questioned. About 4 billion viewers (cumulative audience) should follow the matches of the competition.Almost as much as 4 years ago (4.2 billion according to URS Finance and Economics and the International Rugby Board). More than 220 million euros in marketing and TV rights for the event have been sold by the IRB, against only 190 million for the French edition of 2007. The fact is that New Zealand will not see the color of money, revenue from TV rights and advertising contracts falling directly into the pocket of the Board, to fund the global development of rugby.

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For Jérôme Kerviel, the horizon is not entirely clear. His appeal is expected in June 2012. At trial, the former Societe Generale trader was sentenced Oct. 5, 2010 for fraud, breach of trust, forgery and uttering forged documents and five years in prison, three farm, and 4.9 billion euros in damages. The stakes are huge for him, if his conviction was upheld, he could not escape from the prison, having been detained one month and ten days in custody.

Olivier Metzner, remained the only lawyer after a parade of big names in Paris, he prepares the deadline today and this time decided to stay quiet.When the scandal broke, there was much media-presentation, signing, even before his trial, a book, The Gear, memoirs of a trader (Flammarion), in which he denounced "the reality of banking practices."

"Someone basically nice"

Today, thirty years working for a computer consulting firm located in Levallois, near Paris. The boss of this company, expert in court and knowledge of his brother and his first attorney, had befriended the young Breton and had welcomed home after the blast caused by the scandal. "All the people who approached basically found someone nice. He tries to do well in his way. And it's someone you can trust, "assured RTL in 2010 Jean-Raymond Lemaire, his employer.

The scandal January 24, 2008 when Societe Generale announced a record loss of 4.9 billion. Suspicion immediately converge on the trading Delta One desk model that would have concealed astronomical risk positions taken on the markets. At trial, Jerome Kerviel ensures that the bank had encouraged him to take such risks and had then "unwound" these positions in spite of common sense.

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This year again, the market shelves is essentially … the Apple iPad, despite an influx of competing products on the market. "Other manufacturers are struggling to create the right set-shelf applications to counter Apple," says Kirk Campbell, CEO of IDC. Samsung advanced course in second place world ranking producers of tablets, but it is still far behind the iPad. "RIM, the maker of BlackBerry, will come with an improved product. It retains its chances of success, "said the boss of IDC, while sales of PlayBook, the first tablet of RIM, have not changed the world rankings.

"There's always room for one leader in the business world," said Kirk Campbell.Indeed, users have iPads'm more likely to want to use it in a professional, IT departments are often the resistance, finding the subject too insecure. "The market remains very open shelves and Apple will sell mechanically market share," said Kirk Campbell. However, the firm at the apple still have good days ahead. If Microsoft Tuesday unveiled a new Windows Tablet 8 can equip, no product should be on the market before the end of 2012. Accordingly, IDC does not anticipate any real rebound in the PC market before that date.Then, computer sales are expected to further growth in France, with the arrival of the new Windows, but also new forms of computers and especially ultrabooks These extra thin and light PC Faxless payday loans.

Sales of smartphones are also expected to continue to grow, reaching four billion euros, an increase of 33% at the end of 2011. About 12 million handsets will be sold in France this year. "This increase meets the mobility needs of consumers," said Kirk Campbell, for whom the main battle takes place on the side of operational systems. If for the moment the landscape is dominated by IOS (Apple) and Android (Google), "there is room for five or six players, according to Kirk Campbell. There will be regional solutions. Remember that the Chinese are still not entered the race. "In France, Bada, the operating system from Samsung that plays the third male. Korean is also passed by Apple in July. Android now holds more than 50% of the French market of smartphone sales, against 17.7% for Bada (which equips Samsung Wave) and 17% for iOS Apple.

"The future cars will be connected devices" said Kirk Campbell, who predicted the establishment of a new economic model that would allow manufacturers to generate recurring revenue by selling subscription services. Ford has already extensively engaged in this way with Sync.

The debt crisis turns to Greek tragedy and psychodrama. Tuesday night, a committee of experts of Parliament in an official report revealed that the country's debt was "out of control." The next day, denial and criticism rang out, Evangelos Venizelos, the Finance Minister did not mince words, stating that these auditors did not have "neither the knowledge nor the experience nor the necessary responsibility to judge the debt ", a few hours later, the director of the parliamentary commission complained resigned.

Stock market crash

Friday, an additional layer was taken with the surprise announcement of the suspension for ten days, the mission started in Athens earlier this week by experts from the troika (EU, ECB and International Monetary Fund).This sudden departure caused an outcry in the country and the stock market plummeted at the opening, causing the European financial centers in its wake. The finance minister has tried to downplay the event: "There was no rupture of discussions between the country and the Troika," he said. But Evangelos Venizelos has failed to convince, especially as he admitted, following that "Greece will not hold its goals of reducing the public deficit in 2011 due to the deepening recession in the country. " GDP is forecast to decline by at least 5% this year, the government now provides, which leads mechanically to predict a deficit of 8.8% of GDP at end 2011, against a previous estimate of 7.4%.

It is a fact, almost a year and a half after the introduction of the first austerity plan, Greece is again up against the wall.The austerity measures have led to a sharp recession and sealed growth, competitiveness and production. The unemployment rate reached 16.6% last month. "The committee was right. The debt is really out of control because it is growing and will continue to grow, "Analysis Stefanos Manos, a former finance minister credit reports free. "It is sad to see that the government did nothing for months. No reform of the state system, not privatization, but only the imposition of taxes and cuts in wages! There are more public spending in 2009, before the crisis, he said. This time, it is urgent, bankruptcy is just around the nose. International leaders must tap your feet.They should refuse to grant the sixth installment of the loan of 110 billion euros granted to Greece if these measures are not implemented. "This is probably the direction of the departure of the troika, which means by this dramatic move to the pressure on the government.

But this game of poker liar weary Greeks who bear the brunt of austerity. Last significant extent, the increase in VAT in catering from 13 to 23%. "A step too far, according to Giorgos Delastik, a political analyst. The Greeks are exhausted. They think that especially in terms of rigor is not applied the right way to save their country from the crisis, just as Ireland and Portugal. "

Strikes and demonstrations were not long in coming. After the Athens metro and teachers, the outraged calls for a mobilization in Parliament tonight.Ilias Iliopoulos for general secretary of the union officials, the Greeks played their all. "We are on the verge of a social explosion," said he. "In 2010, when the deficit would be reduced by five points, the Greeks had to make huge sacrifices. Today, they can not accept other measures or new cuts on wages. " However, the troika request 2.5 billion savings by the end of the year. The authorities now fear having barely contain the anger of the Greeks, who was radicalized after the summer break.

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The speech will be delivered to a very limited audience, but it will be heard by the entire financial world. The head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, will speak on Friday afternoon (French time) to his counterparts at the traditional central bankers in Jackson Hole Symposium, Wyoming.

While the U.S. economy slows dangerously, investors expect a tough response from the Fed. But they may be disappointed because, faced with two problems, the central bank runs out of ammunition.

Misdiagnosis

First, Ben Bernanke erred in economic diagnosis. He underestimated his own admission, the low growth in the first half and was counting on a rebound in demand in the second, which for now does not materialize.Problem with its main policy rate at zero since December 2008, the Fed has little room to revive again the supply of credit. Some members of the Monetary Committee refuses to go further. Among the reluctant, Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed. It is estimated that on August 9 promises to continue until mid-2013 interest rates unusually low, the Fed made a mistake: the promise deters businesses and individuals to borrow quickly as they know that the rates are not nearly up.

So what can Ben Bernanke promised? The resumption of purchases of long-term bonds the Treasury is the preferred option by the markets. But given the high level of inflation, the method is risky.In addition, low interest rates leaves little hope that this new "quantitative easing" has a significant effect on credit supply.

Ben Bernanke should focus on technical measures. The Fed could cut the compensation of bank reserves. It would be a way to push banks to lend rather than storing their cash with her. The second measure seeks to change more or less gradually the composition of its balance sheet, which reached 2.7 trillion dollars. To maintain long-term rates as low as possible, the Fed may decide to increase the proportion of its balance sheet invested in long-term securities, while reducing the one placed in short-term securities. The decline in long rates will encourage companies and individuals to refinance their debts and support the real estate.

Treasury bills do not suffer from degradation of the note of the United States. Instead, rates remain historically low. U.S. finances are parties to drift, but investors have long known, and such a decision undermines their confidence in the ability of the United States to meet its repayments. "On the contrary, the threat of similar actions in other states has positive points: it encourages the ECB to carry more debt buyer of European public and invites States to precipitate the budgetary consolidation measures, which will strengthen intrinsic quality of government securities, "relativize Patrick Artus, Research Director of Studies and Natixis.

In fact, it is especially risky assets, which suffer from fears of contagion cuts ratings of sovereign debt payday loan.Evidenced by the plummeting global stock indexes following the shock announcement Standard & Poor's. Over the past five trading days, the Cac 40 lost almost 8%, and the index companies were affected differently. These are "primarily growth stocks" that have suffered the most, says Patrick Artus, "since the fall of 2400 billion over ten years the U.S. deficit will cost a point of growth the first year." Over the period, it is almost 70 billion euros in market capitalization went up in smoke. The equivalent (almost) the biggest company in France, namely Total!

In the night from Friday to Saturday, S & P downgraded the rating of the United States, from "AAA" to "AA +". This historic announcement, which comes as the markets have closed a black week, plunged the financial world into the unknown. Munis Hassim, professor at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, explains why such degradation threatens the U.S. economy, the first world power, and identifies the situation to that of Japan in the 1990s.

Is the degradation of the notes of the United States plunges us into a new crisis?

The fact that the United States lose their triple-A means that they have a slightly higher probability of defaulting. But by switching to "AA +", this probability is very low. Moreover, experts and analysts do not believe at all a failure to pay the largest economy in the world. So there is no reason to panic.However, the multiple consequences which such degradation can they prove to be very disturbing.

For example?

The fact that S & P has dared to sacrifice the American note puts enormous pressure on other countries rated AAA, particularly in Europe as the UK or even France. This announcement will fuel fears of a contagion of degradation of notes, when the markets seemed to panic this week. In Italy and Spain (already degraded) in particular, tensions are rising, although they seem to be the new target markets. Moreover, the impact on the banks direct. They will have to review their capital allocation taking into account the appearance of more risky U.S. bonds they hold, as they impose the new international regulations, to strengthen the solvency of banks (Basel III).The recent bank stress tests, whose results were given there only three weeks, have already lost all credibility because they did not include either a restructuring of the Greek debt, or a deterioration note the United States.

Why such a lowering of note can threaten the global economy?

When the debt rating of long-term decline in the U.S., this means that more may not be refunded if the creditor is. However, the markets, the risk is remunerated by interest rates: if I am less sure of being repaid, so I request a higher rate. Thus, losing the "AAA", the U.S. interest rates at 5 years, 10, 20, 30, will mechanically increase.And if rates rise, it's a downward spiral of investment and consumption that will engage, which produces more unemployment, less tax revenue and public expenditure. This government deficits widen further, and sovereign debt. But during the past two weeks very turbulent markets, the U.S. long rates remained very low. There have never been so low, a sign of investor confidence.

There is still a little time, no one imagined the United States lose their AAA. How did they get there?

The problem the U.S. is that they have more flexibility, or a monetary point of view, or budget.On the one hand, monetary policy can not be more accommodating, having pumped billions and billions of dollars of liquidity into the markets and set the interest rate floor (they are between 0% and 0.5 %) to restore the U.S. economy weighed down by the subprime crisis that has capitulated Lehman Brothers, three years ago. On the other, public spending has been poorly controlled, while the U.S. tax burden is already high. Difficult in these conditions for fiscal consolidation.

It is like in Japan twenty years ago …

Exactly, you are right in the Japanese-style scenario. The United States could enter a situation of liquidity trap in which Japan was mired in the 1990s, but never really escape. Rates were zero and sluggish growth, while prices fell, leaving Japan trapped.United States, the U.S. central bank, the Fed is now more capable of supporting the U.S. economy, which has not really recovered from the crisis, according to the latest statistics. Growth for 2011 looks less than expected, despite the monetary support giant that has been deployed. It remains to be seen whether this will result in deflation (lower prices) or if inflation will return. The best case scenario would be the second, to prevent the United States is experiencing a "lost decade" in Japan.

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After considering the price of flour in supermarkets and those of certain financial products, the European Commission is vigilant in fine watchmaking. The competition regulator on Friday launched an investigation into the agreements and dominant positions among manufacturers of luxury watches, trying to see if they have agreed to refuse to supply spare parts to independent repairers.

"The Commission informed the parties concerned and the competition authorities of the Member States of the opening of the proceedings in this case," said the European Commission in a statement.

The investigation follows a complaint filed in 2004 by the European Confederation of Associations of watch repairers (CEAHR) for alleged violation of competition rules of the European Union.Multi-brand repairers had indeed used to make many of the repairs of luxury watches. But from 2002, according to CEAHR, manufacturers of luxury watches began to refuse to supply spare parts to multi-brand repairers who were not part of their repair networks. The CEAHR therefore seeks the condemnation of the practice, saying it could force independent repairers to put the key under the door.

The European competition regulator rejected its complaint in 2008 for lack of Community interest. Then the decision was overturned by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in December 2010. This does not prevent the European Commission to be cautious about this.She stresses that the opening of an investigation does not mean it already has evidence about the existence of an offense. And yet, no manufacturer of luxury watches is specifically under investigation.

Annick Goutal perfumes changes hands. Korean cosmetics group Amore Pacific, which owns the Lolita Lempicka fragrance and cosmetics Laneige, acquired the French brand to the U.S. fund Starwood Capital. The latter had acquired in 2005 by taking control of several jewels of the Taittinger family group: hotels Crillon and Lutetia or Baccarat crystal pay day loans.

Goutal perfumes, bought by Taittinger in 1985 and still led by Brigitte Taittinger, had been founded by Annick Goutal in 1981. The brand has stores in France, Belgium, UK and Canada, but mainly distribution agreements with 1300 stores in twenty countries. Amore Pacific sees growth potential in Asia.