Dropped 6% Eurostoxx 50 in four meetings. -4.5% On the Dow Jones. The stock markets are feeling the pinch since five days after a series of disappointing indicators. But the deteriorating economic conditions may explain in part the decline of recent days. A new phobia stirred since mid-August the community of technical analysts, very active in the Anglo-Saxon: the Hindenburg omen. According to this theory based on statistical observation, when during a single session, a large amount of assets a share price reached its highest level since 52 weeks and another group of shares is in contrast to a low of 52 weeks, then it presages a new crash on Wall Street. This configuration has indeed preceded all the crashes of the past 25 years.Now this rare phenomenon has been observed on August 12 last.
At first glance, the analysis may seem silly, but when we know the possible influence of technical analysis on decision making in trading rooms, the question deserves some attention here. An emphasis on this theory could have the effect of precipitating the collapse of markets by a kind of anticipatory self-fulfilling.
What happened on August 12
On 12 August, the same day at least 2.9% of U.S. stocks from the NYSE reached a peak of 52 weeks, while at least 2.6% of values fell to a low of 52 weeks. This configuration, called "Hindenburg omen," referring to the crash of a German Zeppelin in New Jersey in 1937, would thus poses a risk of an imminent collapse in the New York Stock Exchange.For the scenario is validated, however, requires that the configuration is again within 35 days. However, if one sticks to the analysis of Robert McHugh Marketoracle website, seems to have been the case, last August 20.
More ominously, this type of configuration, which, under certain conditions, would have preceded each of the 25 crashes last year. This was the case before the crash in the fall of 2008. The figure was also present a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987. We could observe three trading days before the panic of October 1989. With this indicator, the 1990 recession, falling stock markets linked to the collapse of LTCM and Asian crises of 1998 were also predictable.
A highly controversial approach
By looking more closely at the scenario is unlikely to occur. To understand this flag, it must return to basics.The paternity of the Hindenburg omen Miekka back to Jim, who edits a newsletter called the Bull & Bear Report Sudbury. But the very idea of this flag goes back to later, finding its roots in another indicator: the high low logic index, described by Norman Fosback in the 1970s. In his book Stock Market Logic, the American economist, explained why when at the same time, a significant number of shares reached a new high and a significant number reaches a low, markets are likely to decline. This shows that the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence, which is generally not conducive to future rising stock prices.
But where Norman Fosback had merely simple criteria, proponents of the Hindenburg omen facing a multitude of conditions, which are subject to interpretation, and therefore are not unanimous.That's where the shoe pinches. In practice, it is virtually unenforceable.
Reliable indicators abound in the sense of portent
When the five conditions necessary for the validation of the Hindenburg omen are met, the stock market crash, defined by a rapid drop of at least 15% of stock market indices in the next four months, would then have 30% chance to occur. A contrario reasoning is sufficient to limit the scope of this prediction: if a 30% chance that a crash occurs, there are so 70% it does not happen! This likelihood does not however exclude the possibility of an imminent crash.
This approach also runs counter to the traditional view of technical analysis, which is to banish any source of subjectivity by analyzing the market through simple indicators, not subject to multiple conditions in an attempt to predict the evolution courses in the coming weeks. Technical analysts therefore recommend to always use the same indicators that markets go up or they fold, including the trend of moving averages.These reliable indicators not currently exclude a decrease of 10% to 15% of the market in the coming weeks, as recommended in the Hindenburg omen.
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The five conditions of the Hindenburg omen
First, the quota values that cross new thresholds upward or downward has been lowered. For Norman Fosback requires a minimum of 5% of the relevant securities. But for the Hindenburg omen it requires a much lower threshold of 2.5%.
Further, the followers of the Hindenburg omen believe it should be interpreted in light of several other indicators on the conditions of validity of five.The first condition, the most important is that the highest and lowest of 52 weeks. The second is that the moving average of ten weeks NYSE should be increased. Thirdly, the McClellan Oscillator (a proxy measure of volatility) must be negative on the same day. Fourth condition: the highest amount of new 52-week values the NYSE should not exceed twice the amount of new low of 52 weeks. Finally, and this is the fifth and final condition: the scenario must be repeated within 36 days after the first appearance of this configuration market.