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Change in the indices of the Paris Bourse. The Franco-Belgian bank Dexia and media group Lagardere will leave the CAC 40 September 20. They will be replaced by the bank Natixis, a subsidiary of BPCE, and the communication group Publicis. They wait patiently until two values within the index "Next 20", will welcome their places Dexia and Lagardère.

Natixis and Publicis laugh, cry and Lagardère Dexia

Meanwhile, financial markets on Monday welcomed the news: Natixis gaining 3.26% to 4.57 euros and Publicis rose 1.50% to 34.95 euros in a market up slightly at 0.12%.Conversely, Lagardere was down 2.42% to 28.05 euros and Dexia loose 2.03% to 3.37 euros, to 10.30, the two largest declines the CAC 40.

Edenred, company resulting from the division of Accor, the chemist and Rhodia will join at the same time that antechamber of the CAC 40 in place of the services company Atos Origin and Land Regions.

These decisions were taken Friday night by the Scientific Council of the indices of the Paris Bourse. It meets at least four times a year to update the content index. To determine the entry or exit to a value of the CAC 40 are taken into account many factors: the respective weight values, number of transactions, volumes of shares traded and turnover.

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The firms play the game of real recovery? Their profits are excellent on both sides of the Atlantic in the second quarter. At the same time, growth remains too low to reduce unemployment and the specter of a double dip recession. Economists blame the companies responsible for this widening gap between profits and growth.

"The companies have not shared enough of their profits with their employees, and this could dampen the recovery," says Aneta Markowska, economist at Societe Generale CIB. In the U.S., the share of corporate revenues redistributed to employees has dropped from 59.8% in the second quarter, its lowest level since the Second World War.

Recruitment at half

Paradoxically, "the companies that have entered the crisis with little debt and thus did not need to rebalance their balance sheets, accumulate cash and threaten the recovery," says Aneta Markowska. Their cash is now nearly 6% of their assets, against less than 4.5% before the crisis. A level not seen since the 50s, according to figures from Societe Generale CIB. The most obvious translation of this strategy, they block the hiring.

Natixis, the head of economic research, Patrick Artus, made the same observation. In a classical revival, the increase in profits resulting from investment, thus creating jobs, which in turn produce growth. But this time it's different.'Distortion of revenue sharing to the detriment of employees led to the weakening of wage and salary income, thus accentuating the weakness of domestic demand, "says Patrick Artus in a note. In the U.S., it will need more time to households in debt up to his neck to clean up their finances before eating again.

Uncertainty

If companies are ants and jealously guard their cash flow, because a great uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. Because of fears of fallout in recession, "they do not know what will be their future profits and (in the U.S., Ed) they have difficulty in measuring what the impact of tax measures on the viability of their projects investment ", according to Societe Generale economist IPC.

Growth at half-profits on the rise, "he will have to get used to the difference," said Patrick Artus, who believes this is a trend. First, large groups are investing in emerging markets with high potential, which boosts their results. Then the credit market freeze that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has scalded. They now want to finance their own investments and not to depend on external funding.

In the space of just three months, Axa sold nearly half its stake in Goldman Sachs. According to a document quoted by U.S. stock market regulator the Financial Times, the French insurer has sold nearly 16 million shares of U.S. bank and reduced its share from 5% to 2.1%. The funds were raised to bail out financial services group.

The withdrawal of the French group came at a time when the famous Wall Street bank saw its market capitalization melt after an investigation by the U.S. court on possible fraud. In the quarter, the title of the investment bank collapsed by nearly 23%.

Other major shareholders of Goldman Sachs have also reduced their stake in the bank business loan no fax payday. BlackRock and T.Rowe Price have respectively sold 1.6 million and 4.2 million shares Goldman Sachs.

Meanwhile, Axa has reduced its stake in U.S. Bancorp and that of Barclays and acquired stakes in Wells Fargo and Bank of America.

However, the bank always seems to be supported by Warren Buffett had invested in September 2008 – is in financial crisis – some five billion dollars in bank capital. The investor would also prominent candidate for the acquisition of Direct Line, a subsidiary of British bank RBS.

Dropped 6% Eurostoxx 50 in four meetings. -4.5% On the Dow Jones. The stock markets are feeling the pinch since five days after a series of disappointing indicators. But the deteriorating economic conditions may explain in part the decline of recent days. A new phobia stirred since mid-August the community of technical analysts, very active in the Anglo-Saxon: the Hindenburg omen. According to this theory based on statistical observation, when during a single session, a large amount of assets a share price reached its highest level since 52 weeks and another group of shares is in contrast to a low of 52 weeks, then it presages a new crash on Wall Street. This configuration has indeed preceded all the crashes of the past 25 years.Now this rare phenomenon has been observed on August 12 last.

At first glance, the analysis may seem silly, but when we know the possible influence of technical analysis on decision making in trading rooms, the question deserves some attention here. An emphasis on this theory could have the effect of precipitating the collapse of markets by a kind of anticipatory self-fulfilling.

What happened on August 12

On 12 August, the same day at least 2.9% of U.S. stocks from the NYSE reached a peak of 52 weeks, while at least 2.6% of values fell to a low of 52 weeks. This configuration, called "Hindenburg omen," referring to the crash of a German Zeppelin in New Jersey in 1937, would thus poses a risk of an imminent collapse in the New York Stock Exchange.For the scenario is validated, however, requires that the configuration is again within 35 days. However, if one sticks to the analysis of Robert McHugh Marketoracle website, seems to have been the case, last August 20.

More ominously, this type of configuration, which, under certain conditions, would have preceded each of the 25 crashes last year. This was the case before the crash in the fall of 2008. The figure was also present a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987. We could observe three trading days before the panic of October 1989. With this indicator, the 1990 recession, falling stock markets linked to the collapse of LTCM and Asian crises of 1998 were also predictable.

A highly controversial approach

By looking more closely at the scenario is unlikely to occur. To understand this flag, it must return to basics.The paternity of the Hindenburg omen Miekka back to Jim, who edits a newsletter called the Bull & Bear Report Sudbury. But the very idea of this flag goes back to later, finding its roots in another indicator: the high low logic index, described by Norman Fosback in the 1970s. In his book Stock Market Logic, the American economist, explained why when at the same time, a significant number of shares reached a new high and a significant number reaches a low, markets are likely to decline. This shows that the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence, which is generally not conducive to future rising stock prices.

But where Norman Fosback had merely simple criteria, proponents of the Hindenburg omen facing a multitude of conditions, which are subject to interpretation, and therefore are not unanimous.That's where the shoe pinches. In practice, it is virtually unenforceable.

Reliable indicators abound in the sense of portent

When the five conditions necessary for the validation of the Hindenburg omen are met, the stock market crash, defined by a rapid drop of at least 15% of stock market indices in the next four months, would then have 30% chance to occur. A contrario reasoning is sufficient to limit the scope of this prediction: if a 30% chance that a crash occurs, there are so 70% it does not happen! This likelihood does not however exclude the possibility of an imminent crash.

This approach also runs counter to the traditional view of technical analysis, which is to banish any source of subjectivity by analyzing the market through simple indicators, not subject to multiple conditions in an attempt to predict the evolution courses in the coming weeks. Technical analysts therefore recommend to always use the same indicators that markets go up or they fold, including the trend of moving averages.These reliable indicators not currently exclude a decrease of 10% to 15% of the market in the coming weeks, as recommended in the Hindenburg omen.

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The Paris Bourse hesitated Wednesday

The five conditions of the Hindenburg omen

First, the quota values that cross new thresholds upward or downward has been lowered. For Norman Fosback requires a minimum of 5% of the relevant securities. But for the Hindenburg omen it requires a much lower threshold of 2.5%.

Further, the followers of the Hindenburg omen believe it should be interpreted in light of several other indicators on the conditions of validity of five.The first condition, the most important is that the highest and lowest of 52 weeks. The second is that the moving average of ten weeks NYSE should be increased. Thirdly, the McClellan Oscillator (a proxy measure of volatility) must be negative on the same day. Fourth condition: the highest amount of new 52-week values the NYSE should not exceed twice the amount of new low of 52 weeks. Finally, and this is the fifth and final condition: the scenario must be repeated within 36 days after the first appearance of this configuration market.

It is the birth of a new global leader in Internet gambling traded. The operator of online paris Austrian Bwin announced Thursday an agreement to merge with its British rival PartyGaming, a wedding to 1.7 billion dollars.

Bwin, listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange and specializes in sports already claimed the leadership position in Europe with a turnover of 373 million euros in 2009.

The second, quoted in London and more focused on poker and casino games, carried 309 million in sales last year. The new group will be listed in London and based in Gibraltar.

The shareholders will own 51.6% Bwin – those of PartyGaming else – but it redeems PartyGaming.The merger will be completed in the first quarter of 2011.

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Place the masons and painters! Members of the Committee on Social Affairs of the National Assembly completed late Thursday afternoon, discussing the draft law on pensions, with a few hours ahead of schedule. Members will now leave the Palais Bourbon completely delivered to artisans who have already begun the usual summer work. Return scheduled Tuesday, Sept. 7, even on Monday night at 6 for a special session will begin by examining the same text, but this time in the Chamber.

"It is in times of transition, summarized perhaps one at the Elysee. The real battle will take place from September. "The for Sarkozy are well aware that this first parliamentary stage was a formality. Not surprisingly, the debates have been looped smoothly."The Socialists have just wanted to make a coup by breaking the lock-in twitter discussions with their phone," is a counselor. What the left willingly admits. For now, she preferred surf the weakening of Labour Minister Caught in the case Bettencourt. Godsend for the Socialists, who are careful not to request his resignation.

Paradoxically, the majority seemed more worried by the progress of the case and its component Bettencourt Woerth that by the turn of the debate on pensions. "The left is going clubbing Woerth in September. He held up? "Wonders already a minister. The Elysee hopes that the summer break will reduce the pressure. Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon reiterated that Eric Woerth defend indeed the text on Sept. 7. In other words, he will not be driven to resign by then."It is quiet because we know there is nothing in the record," says the Prime Minister.

"Everything will be decided in September. We are ready for battle. But it also depends on the mobilization in the streets, "says one seat in the PS. Clearly, the left hopes to build on part of the public. Even if the opponents and proponents of reform are divided into two shares more or less equal faxless cash advance.

Unions united

Unions, too, prepare to maturity. For September 7 will also be a new day of strikes and protests against the reform that SF has, once again, on Thursday asked the "withdrawal". In reality, most organizations do not believe and do not even dream to win concessions on key points, beginning with the postponement of the age to 62 years.However, they have not conceded the changes on other aspects of the text during the parliamentary debate.

They rely for that on the "pressure" of the street. Will they exceed the threshold of two million demonstrators, after 1.9 million announced on the evening of the last day of action – successful – last June 24? Not easy to mobilize massively, just days after school starts. Therefore plants have continued their campaign all summer, touring the beaches to the CFDT distributed a booklet "educational" on reform and its "alternative" possible, the CGT.

The unions will have an advantage: their unity restored. Having refused to sign for months, FOR has joined its competitors, and the CFE-CGC has done the same.It is the only organization to accept the decline of legal age, but she believes that the conditions there pose – including a strong financial closure of the reform – are not met.

Faced with this united front, the government has chosen to keep the ballast drop. He has done at this stage, no specific proposals on issues which he is willing to develop: difficulty, and long careers polypensionnés.

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The fireworks on July 14, is sacred in many municipalities, but not Mennecy. This town of Essonne is indeed one of the few to have made the choice to give up for budgetary reasons. "This is the third consecutive year that we do not celebrate the national holiday, says Elizabeth Vasseur, deputy mayor. It is a decision we made when we arrived responsibilities. Given the state of public finances, we have chosen to focus on building maintenance, or renovation of two schools being. Because we do not want to raise taxes, "she argues. The savings amounted to ten thousand euros. If people have stayed up Mennecy perhaps no worse the other 364 days of the year, few cities, however, he followed suit.

For the celebrations of July 14 remains a symbolic moment for which the municipalities continue to invest in broadly stable, despite the severity of wind hovering at the national level. In Paris, the budget devoted to one of the biggest fireworks of the Hexagon is constant since 2001. An investment of € 500,000 by July 14 to 30 tons of powder and 30 minute show. "In the current economic climate, we did not want that expense increases, say to the City of Paris. But it seems important to properly celebrate this national event. " Same story in a smaller city, Chalon-sur-Saone (71), where the budget for fireworks is roughly the same from year to year, despite a desire for renewal: "Our budget is constant for 5-6 years, explains Cédric Sementi, responsible for the event.But we chose this year to remove the sound of fire to prolong the duration of the show. " In total, 14 July festivities will be spread over five days in Chalon whole through the operation "Summer Sonatas" paydayloan.

The fireworks, creator of the social bond

Jacques Couturier Organization, which has won this year's market fireworks in the city of Paris, his explanation for this relative constancy: "The fireworks created a social bond that we all need in times crisis, analyzes its founder. Increasingly, we are asked to create fireworks outside the July 14, for example recently at the Championnat de France cyclist Vendee. Especially since the resources allocated to the festivities usually remain small relative to the overall budget of Commons.In Sceaux (92) – which does more than fireworks on July 14 for 10 years, preferring the fires of St. John – the various festivities cost about 200,000 euros to the municipality, with a total budget of 30 million. "This costs in a city hall, which is most likely to suffer from the crisis, are the social or educational expenses," said Philip Lawrence, Mayor of Sceaux.

Among Europe's leading fireworks, Lacroix-Ruggieri, there is however a slight decline in budgets. The amounts invested were stable in 2009, but budgets have contracted by about 5% this year. "All budgets ranges from 2000 euros to 500,000 euros, have been involved," says Jean-Michel Dambielle, Director General Operational Group. And if the national holiday of July 14 is still with us, removal of business tax still worried the bomb."The fiscal autonomy of municipalities will decrease their budgets might be affected, analysis Picard, CEO of Group F, creator of the fireworks in Paris in 2008. Will we still saved? We'll see next year. "

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Eighty days after the explosion of the platform Deepwater Horizon BP, while 35,000 to 60,000 barrels of crude continue to flee each day in the Gulf of Mexico, the Administration faces Obama in the oil industry courtrooms.

Latest twist, a Louisiana appellate court has imposed a setback Thursday at the White House. On 22 June a judge in New Orleans overturned the six-month moratorium on new offshore drilling more than 150 meters deep, decreed by the Obama Administration. The magistrate ruled the gel arbitrary, decided by him without consideration for its regional economic impact. The executive has therefore appealed and lost again on Thursday.

Thirty drilling platforms in the Gulf these are now hostage to this legal battle.The cost of leasing a drilling platform is estimated at 1 million per day. As a result of thirty platforms in the Gulf, the bill accumulated over three months would amount to 2.7 billion dollars for companies exploring the deposits of the Gulf. The extension of the moratorium could put 50,000 employees out of work in Louisiana and the neighboring oil states.

Go drill "elsewhere"

Along with judges, elected Republicans deposit burst of bills or amendments to overturn the moratorium. For its part, the British government also said to be opposed to a freeze of all offshore drilling and focuses on a case by case basis. "We will not allow drilling until we have no assurance that the plans for all wells (…) represent what can be done better," says the UK Department of Energy.

Already, several U.S. companies threaten to go elsewhere to drill. "If the moratorium is maintained, we will have to redirect our resources to other parts of the world we are authorized to work," says one at Exxon Mobil, the first American company. In the U.S., the oil sector is characterized by the presence of a multitude of small companies, which bore alongside the majors. Thus, Swift Energy, based in Houston, told AFP that she was going to drill more in Texas, on land, at the expense of its operations off the coast of Louisiana.

In California, oil companies had rejoiced the green light to drill offshore, given by Barack Obama just days before the spill.The disaster has brought back the White House on this concession to the oil lobby for support of allied Republicans in Congress on the draft energy law discussed step by step for over a year. The company Venoco, which had projects off California, will focus on its land drilling. Problem: the volumes available in the ground are much lower than those buried under the ocean floor.

Following the adoption of Australian tax on the profits of mining companies, the big names in resume their expansionist movement. Thus, the head of Rio Tinto's Sam Walsh, said further negotiations with the regulators in different countries to complete the planned reconciliation with rival BHP Billiton. Moreover, the multinational was considering expanding its new site for the Pilbara with an investment of 10 billion dollars. The Anglo-Australian group wants to increase its annual production of iron ore of 330 million tons within five years, against 230 million today.

Anglo American is activated

The Anglo-South African Anglo American sells, in turn, coal mines in Australia to a consortium of South Korea's Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) and POSCO, and the Australian Cockatoo Coal for 500 million dollars.Finally, Banpu, Thai producer of coal, wants to increase its shareholding in the Australian Centennial Coal, up 80% to $ 1.7 billion.

Many projects had been put between brackets, because of the uncertainty surrounding the new tax taxing up to 30% profits of mining groups.

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphics.

Formality. Unless disaster, Laurence Parisot should be re-elected Thursday as head of MEDEF for three years. The boss of bosses is the only candidate to succeed him and won the support of 40 members of the executive board present at the May 31 (out of 45 members) in a secret ballot.

The boss of bosses was the only candidate to succeed him (photo credits Jean-Christophe Marmara to the Figaro).