Growth: the recovery continues
After the deep recession that marked the years 2009, 2010 should be the rebound. But "the recovery continues." In these terms as Head of the conditions of INSEE, Sandrine Duch?ne, talks about the situation of the French economy.
And these are not figures of household consumption published Thursday that will contradict that finding. Spending by French manufactured goods suffered a second consecutive decline in February, down 1.2% from the previous month. Nobody expected such poor performance.
More broadly, the economic climate could be worse than anticipated earlier this year.In the update of its forecast released Thursday, the Institute of Statistics has just downgraded the growth of the first part of 2010.
In the first quarter, GDP should grow and not more than 0.2% and 0.3% in the second quarter. To reach the forecasted growth of government, namely 1.4% – should be that activity in France rose 0.5% to 0.6% over the last two quarters. Ambitious!
The beginning of the year was marked by a recovery in the euro zone, both "tentative and mixed, according to Insee. Then it would open in Germany, Spain was left behind.In the wake of world trade, the demand addressed to France should slow down on the horizon in mid-2010.
Employment adjustment
For their part, companies are hesitant to implement new investment projects, "despite improvements in their conditions of funding" payday loans . And this, especially as production capacities are still underutilized.
Among households, nothing euphoric either. In the first half, the purchasing power will continue to slow down (+0.1% in the first quarter, 0.3% in the second), due to a slight rise in inflation and an acceleration of tax burden. Thus, while consumption has resisted during the crisis, it fell in the first half.
The aftermath of the scrapping bonus there is not nothing.End of 2009, auto sales had jumped into effect, households with their anticipated purchases to take full advantage of the generosity of the measure.
As for employment, finally, he would continue to adjust, albeit at a more modest pace. The private sector will lose 80,000 more jobs by mid-2010, after destroying 100au second half of 2009 and around 260000au first. Unemployment would reach in France and 9.8% of the workforce in June. At the end of last year, it was 9.6%.
The French Prime Minister Francois Fillon reiterated on Thursday before the Senate that the unemployment curve "should be reversed in the second half of 2010.
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