Oil has taken five dollars in one week
The price of oil exceeded 85 dollars a barrel Thursday. Such levels were not affected for a year and a half. In the first quarter of this year, crude prices climbed 6.8%, with a substantial Implus this week: The Light Sweet Crude Oil, listed in New York for May delivery rose 5 , 5%, driven by a series of good economic indicators – including manufacturing activity – United States, Europe, and Asia, which reinforce the idea of an economic recovery faster than expected. And thus a rise in demand for oil more dynamic.
A sustainable upturn? Analysts doubt. Mike Fitzpatrick, senior strategist at MF Global, prefers to wait next week to decide."The euphoria may be a bit premature," he warns.
Especially since the stock figures released Wednesday were mostly negative, and a further increase in reserves is planned for next week. In addition, oil has benefited from the weak dollar, which has yet collapsed Thursday against major international currencies.
For several weeks, prices drift sideways between 69.5 and 83.9 dollars dollars. "The trend remains neutral in the short term," according to the technical analysis of Saxo Bank.But the technical analyst of the Journal of Finance, for its part identifies a strong potential for accelerating the rise in crude prices.
Promising indicators
They come mainly from China and Japan, which are respectively the second and third oil consumer in the world.
In China the two purchasing managers index rose in March, reflecting further expansion of manufacturing activity us fast cash.The index of the HSBC bank stood at 57 points, its third highest level since 2004 and the official index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) rose to 55.1 against 52 in February .
Japan's Tankan index of confidence among large manufacturers rose in March for the fourth consecutive quarter, winning 11 points from December to -14 points. This is its highest level in 18 months.
The manufacturing activity has also accelerated in the eurozone and the U.S., according to the PMI and ISM published in each region respectively. The U.S. ISM rose to 59.6 in March, against 56.5 in February. The highest since July 2004.
Global demand will grow
On March 17, OPEC has not changed its production quotas, which remain to be 24.84 million barrels per day since 1 January 2009.For members of the organization, $ 80 a barrel, the price is "perfect" because it allows good balance supply and demand.
In an environment fraught with economic uncertainty, OPEC still sees a recovery in demand for crude. Global demand for oil is projected to increase by about one million barrels per day in the second half, he said. But it should mainly benefit producers outside the cartel, which represent 40% of the global withdrawal.
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