Natixis and Publicis laugh, cry and Lagardère Dexia

Meanwhile, financial markets on Monday welcomed the news: Natixis gaining 3.26% to 4.57 euros and Publicis rose 1.50% to 34.95 euros in a market up slightly at 0.12%.Conversely, Lagardere was down 2.42% to 28.05 euros and Dexia loose 2.03% to 3.37 euros, to 10.30, the two largest declines the CAC 40.

Edenred, company resulting from the division of Accor, the chemist and Rhodia will join at the same time that antechamber of the CAC 40 in place of the services company Atos Origin and Land Regions.

These decisions were taken Friday night by the Scientific Council of the indices of the Paris Bourse. It meets at least four times a year to update the content index. To determine the entry or exit to a value of the CAC 40 are taken into account many factors: the respective weight values, number of transactions, volumes of shares traded and turnover.

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"The companies have not shared enough of their profits with their employees, and this could dampen the recovery," says Aneta Markowska, economist at Societe Generale CIB. In the U.S., the share of corporate revenues redistributed to employees has dropped from 59.8% in the second quarter, its lowest level since the Second World War.

Recruitment at half

Paradoxically, "the companies that have entered the crisis with little debt and thus did not need to rebalance their balance sheets, accumulate cash and threaten the recovery," says Aneta Markowska. Their cash is now nearly 6% of their assets, against less than 4.5% before the crisis. A level not seen since the 50s, according to figures from Societe Generale CIB. The most obvious translation of this strategy, they block the hiring.

Natixis, the head of economic research, Patrick Artus, made the same observation. In a classical revival, the increase in profits resulting from investment, thus creating jobs, which in turn produce growth. But this time it's different.'Distortion of revenue sharing to the detriment of employees led to the weakening of wage and salary income, thus accentuating the weakness of domestic demand, "says Patrick Artus in a note. In the U.S., it will need more time to households in debt up to his neck to clean up their finances before eating again.

Uncertainty

If companies are ants and jealously guard their cash flow, because a great uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. Because of fears of fallout in recession, "they do not know what will be their future profits and (in the U.S., Ed) they have difficulty in measuring what the impact of tax measures on the viability of their projects investment ", according to Societe Generale economist IPC.

Growth at half-profits on the rise, "he will have to get used to the difference," said Patrick Artus, who believes this is a trend. First, large groups are investing in emerging markets with high potential, which boosts their results. Then the credit market freeze that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has scalded. They now want to finance their own investments and not to depend on external funding.

France initiated its reform, that the legal age of retirement will be pushed back 60 years to 62 years by 2018. By 2029, the Germans to retire at age 67 instead of 65 today. Spain, whose age is currently 65, is studying a similar scenario. Finally, Great Britain, the legal age could be raised to 68 years.

These measures are widely endorsed by the European Commission, who said in a Green Paper published today on the occasion of the opening of public debate."In all Member States, an aging population weighs heavily on the existing pension plans, and financial and economic crisis has only increased that pressure," said a statement in Brussels with its consultation document.

"In Europe it is expected that the number of retirees will double by 2060 compared to the number of people who fund their pensions: the current situation is simply unsustainable. To remedy this, it is necessary to consider carefully the balance to be struck between the length of working life and in retirement, "said European Commissioner for Employment, Laszlo Andor in this release.

An average exit age increased to 70 years by 2060

Clearly, the EU executive urges EU states to a widespread decline in the age of retirement, at a time when people are living longer while birth rates are sliding. "In 2008, there were four people of working age (15-64 years) for every citizen of the European Union (EU) aged 65 years at least. By 2060, this ratio will drop to two for one ", explains the Commission. The latter considers that the average age of retirement should be raised from 65 to 70 years by 2060 to maintain pensions at their current level.

The consultation opened on Wednesday last four months, until November 15, 2010. To mobilize the citizens, the Commission established a website to collect the views of each.Based on a recent Eurobarometer survey, Brussels says that Europeans are ready to accept the measures taken by EU governments. The survey found that "73% of citizens of the European Union provide a clear decrease in their retirement or think they have to work longer or save more for their old age."

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Another sign of their increasing weight between 1990 and 2000, the number of countries called emerging markets (ie whose average per capita equivalent to more than double that of OECD countries) has increased from 12 65. Several states of Eastern Europe like the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia acceded to the richest group, along with Saudi Arabia. Today, says the OECD, a simple division into two is more relevant. Château de la Muette now retains the concept of world "four speed", according to growth rates and income levels: poor, distressed, convergent and rich.Interesting phenomenon, twenty economies, mostly in Asia like India, Indonesia and Bangladesh but also in Africa, like Ethiopia or Nigeria, have made a great leap forward from the status of "poor" than "converge".

Note in this scenario, the underperformance of Latin America, where reforms have done little to advance growth. The report noted a reduction of poverty, especially in China where the rate has decreased by 60% in 1995 to 16% in 2005. The downside, if the number of poor has decreased overall from 300 million in the last decade, growth has often been accompanied by increasing inequality, which may influence the long term.

But the trend should not be reversed.In 2030, the OECD area could represent 43% of global GDP in purchasing power parity, against 60% in 2000 and 51% in 2010.

The metal was then hit by the crisis in the automotive industry which represents 50% of global demand. But the latter had declined 13% on average in 2009, the decline in other markets (jewelry, dentistry or chemistry) is unrepresentative.

The automotive industry uses palladium for catalytic converters for cars. This silver is resistant to corrosion and most importantly, it has the ability to absorb hydrogen and thus reduce the toxicity of exhaust gases.A key element in a time of anti-pollution standards imposed on the sector. Palladium has also initiated a frank increase in December 2009, when the summit was held in Copenhagen …

China stirs prospects

The increase in auto sales in March in Europe and the United States thus partly explains the renewed interest in this metal. But it is good to the Chinese automotive market as all investors are now looking. China became the world's biggest car market to the U.S. last year, grew its sales by 55.8% yoy to 1.74 million units, registering a new monthly record.

"Platinum is used in catalytic systems for diesel engines while palladium team mainly gasoline cars.Yet it is these that equip the Chinese fleet, "said Arnaud du Plessis, head of the center ring and co-manager of the Fund International Fructifonds Now Natixis Asset Management. The prospects are interesting while the country's auto sector is undergoing renewal. The equipment rate is 8 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, against 502 or 745 in Japan to the United States. There should be more cars in China than the United States in 2020! .

The country, considered one of the worst polluter on the planet, is also expected to increasingly move towards cleaner technologies. "These are the industry perspectives that make the market upwards," says the analyst.

Speculation

Another element of explanation of rising prices is the financial interest that is now the Palladium for speculators.Last January, three index funds based on platinum and palladium have been introduced in Switzerland and the U.S. fast cash. These ETFs (exchange traded funds) allow investors to bet on palladium and platinum without the hassle of bullion.

"These ETFs are attractive in this small market. We have already seen with the gold. For the first time in 2009, the new demand for ETFs has surpassed that of jewelry. In other words, the financial demand has exceeded industrial demand. This could also happen with palladium, "says Arnaud du Plessis. "The precious metals are generally an asset class in its own right, whereas before, this small market was more restricted to industrial.Now, it helps to diversify the portfolio because these metals are not highly correlated with the rest of the market.

The Russian market queen

Investors also expect the risk of reduced supply. The production of palladium is in fact highly concentrated: Russia and South Africa alone is home to 90% of recoverable reserves. Russia has secured a strategic stockpile in the years 70-80 which allowed him to play on the market. Norilsk Nickel, the first world producer of nickel and palladium, has also often been accused of restricting its exports for political purposes. In 2000, for example, it has put on the market 161.7 tons while demand was estimated at 261.3 tons. Today, the size of these stocks is a closely guarded secret by the Russian government, but experts believe it would be very low.

The fear of a weakening of the offer comes as problems faced by South African producers. The weakness of the country's electricity network is anticipating trouble to keep active mines, very energy intensive. In early April, prices surged after the announcement by the British mining group Lonmin, a restructuring plan employee departures in 5500 its mines in South Africa.

Attracted by the potential of palladium, the most marginal American players are emerging. "With rising prices, mining, the extraction is more expensive to go back into production," said Arnaud du Plessis. For the latter, the palladium market should still be stabilizing: "It is close to the top of 2008 with close to one ounce of $ 600. From this threshold, it will be more careful, "he says.Natixis analyst warned: "Market fundamentals still remain bullish, at least as long as no alternative method of palladium for catalytic converters will be discovered. In this case, the impact will be extremely negative. "

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Monday evening, the CAC 40. Friday night, the benchmark index of the Paris fell 1.94%.

Wall Street has ended without direction while the SEC has fueled the uncertainty by preventing it would be interested in other U.S. banks, including Deutsche Bank, UBS, Merrill Lynch, etc.. on securitization transactions.

Asian stock markets resumed Tuesday morning colors. A rather technical progress.

Zew index to follow

In Germany, the statistics institute Destatis unveiled producer prices up 0.7% in March on a month, resulting in lower annual rate of 1.5% -2.9% cons in February.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an average increase of 0.4% a month to month and down 1.8% over one year.

The most watched barometer Zew financial community will be published 11 hours. In the eurozone, the European Central Bank will publish the balance of payments 10 hours.

In the U.S., no major economic figure is expected Tuesday.

EADS, only for an offer

Air France-KLM (0.62%, to 12.15 euros) announced Monday that the decision of French and European authorities to open corridors into European airspace allowed him to "gradually take over its operating schedule . The group felt that the paralysis it costs 35 million euros in losses per day. For its part, Club Med believes the impact on its activity to 5 million euros per day.Titles back on Tuesday to 1.73%, to 13.25 euros.

Furthermore, EADS (+0.21% to 14.44 euros) should submit a solo bid for the tanker contract from U.S. Air Force after he failed to associate with L-3 Communications Holdings or any other provider, said on Monday close to the matter. But rival Boeing seems more than ever favorite for the contract to $ 35 billion for only the first installment.

Lagard?re cons attack

In an interview with Le Figaro, Arnaud Lagardere said it excluded to abandon the status of sponsorship and Lagard?re will take "adequate time" to sell 7.5% stake that the group still holds in EADS No teletrack payday loans.Lagardere shares lost in the first exchanges 0.66%, to 31.47 euros.

The mutual bank BPCE sent an absolute bar to Deminor in the standoff that pitted him against the shareholder advisory firm on the whole record Natixis, the investment banking subsidiary public offerings in 2006 and washed by the financial crisis. Moreover, Natixis (2.42% to 4.03 euros) confirms its proposed sale to Axa's private equity activities.

BNP Paribas (0.56%, to 55.66 euros) announced it signed an agreement with Banca Popolare di Milano in the Italian bank to buy back its activities in the custodian bank for 55 million euros.

The values in the wind motor

Buoyed by a sharp increase in goals from Daimler, whose shares are more than 7% at the Stock Exchange Frankfurt, values are part of the automotive sector increased sharply.Renault and climbs from 2.51% to 34.93 euros, Peugeot of 2.04%, to 22.22 euros. Valeo is 1.98%, to 25.72 euros and Michelin 1.52%, to 53.48 euros.

Soitec and Guyenne published

Soitec reported an increase in demand and an improvement in its operating profit in the second semester 2009-2010. It seeks a balance from operations for the current year. Titles rise of 2.92%, to 11.44 euros, the largest increase of the SBF 120.

Guyenne et Gascogne (-3.34% to EUR 71,51) has published an increase of 4.7% of its revenue for the quarter, reporting a tentative recovery in Spain and a rebound of his activity in France in March.

Safran issued on Tuesday a stable activity in the first quarter, as expected. The shares were down 1.75%, to 18.65 euros. The largest decrease in the SBF 120.

FRANCE

Saffron: AC 1T (0700)

Radiall ca1T2010

Accor Q1 results (after market)

Lafuma AC 2T (after market)

USA

Coca-Cola Q1 results (before market)

Johnson & Johnson Q1 results (before market)

Goldman Sachs Q1 results (1400)

Yahoo!: Q1 results (after market)

GB

Tesco: annual results

SABMiller: progress report of 4T

SWEDEN

TeliaSonera: results 1T

SKF: results 1T

FINLAND

(*) Kone: results 1T (1130)

SWITZERLAND

Novartis Q1 results (0700)

Moreover, markets can not rely on the monthly sales featureless published by major U.S. retailers.

On the values front, Cisco will be monitored closely.The action of the number one global internet network equipment gained 4% in hours trading Wednesday after the publication of quarterly results, above expectations and with comments upbeat on the prospects for recovery in 2010.

Monster Worldwide also should be surrounded. The Action Group on Internet recruitment gained 2.3% in hours trading Wednesday after the quarterly earnings release and the announcement of the acquisition of HotJobs to Yahoo for $ 225 million in cash.

Markets were awaiting major publications in the United States. Around 12 o'clock, the President of the United States, Barack Obama has proposed a 2011 budget of 3.834 billion dollars. The White House said Monday that the draft budget for next fiscal year (October 2010-September 2011) showed a deficit of 1.267 billion dollars, down 19% due to higher expected revenue.In the afternoon, indicators follow overseas spending and household income for the month of January (1430), construction costs for the month of December (16 hours), the ISM index of manufacturing activity January (16 hours) payday loan . On Friday, the U.S. GDP figures for the fourth quarter, came out up 5.7%.

The results season of American companies continues its course on Monday with those of Exxon Mobil, the world's oil.

In France, prices for production in French industry decreased by 2.9% in 2009, a decline limited to 1.3% for foreign markets, according to figures released Monday by the INSEE. In all markets (French and exports), the producer prices are down 2.4% a year, says the National Institute of Statistics.In December 2008, prices remained stable (0%) in the industry for the French market.

Sales of new vehicles surged 14% in January by the Committee of French manufacturers (CCFA).

Side currencies and commodities, oil off again on the rise (+0.22% to 73.21 dollars), while the euro strengthens against the dollar (+0.25% to 1.3899 dollars).

The detailed values to follow

Net income meanwhile rose by 3.2% over one year to 3.239 billion dollars. Reported to share, earnings reached $ 0.84, three cents higher than a forecast analysts. The group had said it expected earnings per share from continuing operations of between 0.78 and $ 0.82 for the third quarter.

In contrast, the group is cautious in the fourth quarter disappointed observers. Wal-Mart says and expects to post earnings per share from continuing operations of between 1.08 and $ 1.12, while analysts on average expect a figure of $ 1.12. In exchange for pre-market action shrank by 0.6% to 52.45 dollars to 13h20.