The lull will not last long. A week just after the EU summit that was to stop the crisis by helping Greece, markets fall back into distrust. The plan of 109 billion euros, which would act as a sedative, is no longer effective. "While Greece is doing a little better than before the summit. But Wednesday the gap between interest rates Greek and German, the reference, has widened. Another day or two like this and the country will end up worse off than before, "notes Paul Donovan, economist at UBS.
Feared the contagion to other fragile states (Spain, Italy) was not stopped. Their rates have continued to climb and investors are questioning the limits of the plan presented last Thursday.
Inaccuracies
For the first time, investors will be strongly encouraged to participate in the rescue effort in Greece.Problem: lack of market information needed to assess how the financial industry will lose this game. "Financial institutions are supposed to have the three options, but these are not detailed in the European statement last Thursday", wonders Justin Knight, in charge rates for the euro area at UBS. The banking lobby, the Institute of International Finance, which participated in the negotiations, estimated probable losses for the sector to about 20% of total investments in the Greek debt.
Slow and laborious operation
EU leaders decided to put more tools available to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), the mechanism to assist states in need. The latter, which could only provide the states, will now buy the debt of these countries if attacked by the markets.Such action requires great responsiveness. However, the EFSF will have to wait to obtain the unanimous agreement of Member States before acting. "It is as if a city council should meet every time before sending firefighters extinguish a fire," concerned the analysis of ING, who would have liked a more flexible operation.
Not enough resources
The EFSF could also not have the means to exercise its new powers. Laurence Boone, euro zone economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said it would take 290 billion euros to defend Italy and Spain if they were attacked by the markets Payday Loan for Bad Credit. However, it has only 220 billion euros available. "The lack of risk to amputate the Fund's effectiveness," the economist concluded. A member of the European Central Bank (ECB) said it would increase the envelope of EFSF to 1000 billion euros.Economists European Centre for the Study of CEPS for their part feel the need to 4000 billion euros.
Not generous enough for Greece
European leaders have relaxed the conditions under which they provide loans to Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The repayment period was extended and the interest rate was lowered to 3.5%. Insufficient, according to analysts at Nomura: "The average interest rate on the Greek debt should be below 3% to enable it to achieve its goals of reducing its debt to 2031, ie to fall below 90% of gross domestic product (GDP). "The rating agency Standard & Poor's therefore believes that a new Greek debt restructuring will be needed in two years.
Not enough integration
The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has himself acknowledged Wednesday: the summit does not mark the end of the European crisis of debt. "A deeper economic union, including debt issues debt securities in Europe, is needed before we can declare overcome the crisis of debt in the euro area," said Michala Marcussen, chief economist at Societe Generale CIB.
In the end, "a supranational institution with real power to limit public deficits is essential," ING slice. It is the dream of Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank on the move: a European finance minister who would enforce fiscal discipline, over the states.Until such a reform, economists predict further mounted fever, until the appropriate remedy is provided.
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