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Dropped 6% Eurostoxx 50 in four meetings. -4.5% On the Dow Jones. The stock markets are feeling the pinch since five days after a series of disappointing indicators. But the deteriorating economic conditions may explain in part the decline of recent days. A new phobia stirred since mid-August the community of technical analysts, very active in the Anglo-Saxon: the Hindenburg omen. According to this theory based on statistical observation, when during a single session, a large amount of assets a share price reached its highest level since 52 weeks and another group of shares is in contrast to a low of 52 weeks, then it presages a new crash on Wall Street. This configuration has indeed preceded all the crashes of the past 25 years.Now this rare phenomenon has been observed on August 12 last.

At first glance, the analysis may seem silly, but when we know the possible influence of technical analysis on decision making in trading rooms, the question deserves some attention here. An emphasis on this theory could have the effect of precipitating the collapse of markets by a kind of anticipatory self-fulfilling.

What happened on August 12

On 12 August, the same day at least 2.9% of U.S. stocks from the NYSE reached a peak of 52 weeks, while at least 2.6% of values fell to a low of 52 weeks. This configuration, called "Hindenburg omen," referring to the crash of a German Zeppelin in New Jersey in 1937, would thus poses a risk of an imminent collapse in the New York Stock Exchange.For the scenario is validated, however, requires that the configuration is again within 35 days. However, if one sticks to the analysis of Robert McHugh Marketoracle website, seems to have been the case, last August 20.

More ominously, this type of configuration, which, under certain conditions, would have preceded each of the 25 crashes last year. This was the case before the crash in the fall of 2008. The figure was also present a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987. We could observe three trading days before the panic of October 1989. With this indicator, the 1990 recession, falling stock markets linked to the collapse of LTCM and Asian crises of 1998 were also predictable.

A highly controversial approach

By looking more closely at the scenario is unlikely to occur. To understand this flag, it must return to basics.The paternity of the Hindenburg omen Miekka back to Jim, who edits a newsletter called the Bull & Bear Report Sudbury. But the very idea of this flag goes back to later, finding its roots in another indicator: the high low logic index, described by Norman Fosback in the 1970s. In his book Stock Market Logic, the American economist, explained why when at the same time, a significant number of shares reached a new high and a significant number reaches a low, markets are likely to decline. This shows that the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence, which is generally not conducive to future rising stock prices.

But where Norman Fosback had merely simple criteria, proponents of the Hindenburg omen facing a multitude of conditions, which are subject to interpretation, and therefore are not unanimous.That's where the shoe pinches. In practice, it is virtually unenforceable.

Reliable indicators abound in the sense of portent

When the five conditions necessary for the validation of the Hindenburg omen are met, the stock market crash, defined by a rapid drop of at least 15% of stock market indices in the next four months, would then have 30% chance to occur. A contrario reasoning is sufficient to limit the scope of this prediction: if a 30% chance that a crash occurs, there are so 70% it does not happen! This likelihood does not however exclude the possibility of an imminent crash.

This approach also runs counter to the traditional view of technical analysis, which is to banish any source of subjectivity by analyzing the market through simple indicators, not subject to multiple conditions in an attempt to predict the evolution courses in the coming weeks. Technical analysts therefore recommend to always use the same indicators that markets go up or they fold, including the trend of moving averages.These reliable indicators not currently exclude a decrease of 10% to 15% of the market in the coming weeks, as recommended in the Hindenburg omen.

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The Paris Bourse hesitated Wednesday

The five conditions of the Hindenburg omen

First, the quota values that cross new thresholds upward or downward has been lowered. For Norman Fosback requires a minimum of 5% of the relevant securities. But for the Hindenburg omen it requires a much lower threshold of 2.5%.

Further, the followers of the Hindenburg omen believe it should be interpreted in light of several other indicators on the conditions of validity of five.The first condition, the most important is that the highest and lowest of 52 weeks. The second is that the moving average of ten weeks NYSE should be increased. Thirdly, the McClellan Oscillator (a proxy measure of volatility) must be negative on the same day. Fourth condition: the highest amount of new 52-week values the NYSE should not exceed twice the amount of new low of 52 weeks. Finally, and this is the fifth and final condition: the scenario must be repeated within 36 days after the first appearance of this configuration market.

It could be that you just hate paying so much for car insurance and would like a better treatment from another company than the one you are getting now.

The sun should be looking good these next few days on the coast of the Vendee and Charente-Maritime. In this time of summer vacation, the sea should also be delicious. Nothing like with the weather of February 28 last, when the storm Xynthia that swept the country sowed chaos in this part of the Atlantic coast. In the only common Vendée La Faute-sur-Mer and The Sting-sur-Mer, the most affected by the storm, 29 people died. Nearly five months after the tragedy, these two villages devastated recovering gradually. But in this popular tourist region during the summer, Xynthia has left marks that plagued the start of the season.

If the Office of Tourism Osten-sur-Mer laments a decline in attendance of about 10%, traders stand more negative findings."The customer is down 30% to 40%," says Pascale Soussi Restaurant La Terrasse in Sin-sur-Mer. "And it was discussed among traders: It's the same for everyone. At the restaurant La Marina, sixty meals are served daily on the usual hundreds. At the Hotel du Port, Osten-sur-Mer, Sophie Ramon prepare a statement even less favorable in the hotel which was flooded by 82 inches of water in late February and closed more than a month, attendance was halved.

Three campgrounds closed

In case the destruction of several campsites and many second homes have contributed to empty the streets of the town. A La Faute-sur-Mer, the municipal camp was finally closed and that the Blue Waves should not reopen until April 2011.As for camping Municipal The Sting-sur-Mer, it is only half available: caravans and tents can again take up residence in the "upper" since July 1. But the other part, where you could rent mobile homes, chalets and caravans, remains closed for repairs. It represents, in itself, a hundred beds and less.

Overall, La Faute-sur-Mer, about 8000 tourists were least expected, on the 35,000 usually greeted each summer. Added to an unfavorable economic situation by traders, these accommodations are destroyed a significant shortfall.

Ile de Re also shows a small decrease

A few dozen kilometers south of La Faute-sur-Mer on the Ile de Ré, the damage from the storm were less important. "The island is absolutely destroyed!", Recalled the manager of a hotel restaurant.A campsite for a works council remains closed this season and the hotel Odalys does not welcome new visitors that from 31 July.

Le Relais Thalasso, also closed after the storm has finally reopened its doors on July 4 instant loan payday no TeleCheck. Four months of work have been necessary for the institution to recover from the flooding that devastated forty rooms. "Today, activity resumed normally," said facility director Didier Gireau. Our forecast for the month of August are in the standard, or even good. We have made efforts to forget the flood and that the center image is not tarnished. "

But many merchants and restaurateurs of the Ile de Ré deplore this was a small decline in attendance.Some highlight the consequences of the storm, others are pointing the finger at the most unfavorable economic environment. "The economic situation is worrying," says director of Ile de Re Tourism, Catherine Senand, refusing to incrimer the storm that left "little effects" on the island. She admits that the season has "started slowly, but expects a better August.

A "moderate" impact on departments

For François Riou, assistant executive Tourist Board Vendée, the impact of Xynthia remains "very moderate". Only 2% of the Vendee coast has been destroyed by the storm, "a tiny fringe" which does not affect his view, the department's tourism season. Facing a crowd at half this year, local tourism professionals are meant to reassuring about their prospects."Only two campsites are closed on the 400 account the Vendee," he recalls.

Even finding across the neighboring department: "After the storm, only 3% of the infrastructure of Charente-Maritime have been affected," said Stephane Villain, president of the Tourism Committee of the department. "The summer looks very good," he says. "The reservation rate is substantially identical to that of 2009 which was a very good year." And we promise to visitors that the hospitality will be at appointment: "People have worked hard to accommodate visitors in very good conditions," says Stephane Villain. They may be even better than usual ".

The image of the region involved

The image of the Atlantic is at stake, as evidenced by the television campaign to promote tourism in the Vendee.Circulated in early June, the commercials were intended to "remind the values of hospitality and tourism" of the department, according to François Riou.

The regions affected by Xynthia therefore trying now to convince visitors that they are again ready to welcome them, with their usual charm and tranquility.

The boss of General Electric has no language in his pocket! On the occasion of a dinner in Rome, Jeffrey Immelt said that China would "the real concern," reads the columns in the Financial Times. He said the meeting today, the middle kingdom "the worst working conditions in 25 years." The leader has disavowed the policy of the Chinese government he accuses of becoming increasingly hostile to multinational companies.

Thus, the officer warned that General Electric (GE) is looking for growth opportunities outside of China, so as not to be "colonized by Chinese investors," says the boss. Despite the importance of the market, Jeffrey Immelt said that GE "is now turning to other countries rich in raw materials." The Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Indonesia are in the viewfinder.The officer has been loud and clear the feelings of many companies operating in China. The European Chamber of Commerce has in fact recently reported an uproar among foreign groups in place of the emerging economic power saving account payday loan.

In addition, Jeffrey Immelt has made some unkind towards the Obama administration he blames the poisonous climate in the United States. It is also concerned that regulatory changes desired by the White House have a negative impact on the fragile recovery in the United States. And according to the officer, the U.S. business community would not appreciate the President of the United States, and vice versa.

Not the opinions of the group

But the group tries to reduce the scope of the declarations of his boss.The U.S. giant said that the leader was speaking at a private dinner and that the statements reported are not exactly those of Jeffrey Immelt. GE Jeffrey Immelt said in particular that was not directly involved Barack Obama. In addition, the group says that the speech did not reflect the opinions of the group.

The CAC 40 increased his earnings to 16 hours. After posting an increase of 0.90% at mid-session, the index rose in Paris now more than 2%, 2.15% exactly 3521 points. Investors have been reassured after the European Central Bank has revised upward its forecast for eurozone growth this year.

The benchmark index of Paris had shown a steady increase at the close Wednesday after three consecutive sessions of decline, thanks to the reassuring remarks from Ben Bernanke, the Fed chief. Other major European markets have also hoisted the green flag.

The finding is similar to other financial markets: the German Dax climbed 1.09% to 6049 points, the Spanish Ibex rose 2.80% to 9117 points, the Milan Stock Exchange gained 1.11% to 19,123 points.Rising British Footsie is more limited: + 0.64% to 5118 points.

Early this morning, Asian stock markets have posted positive counters. The indices are displayed in positive territory while a series of good gives figures of heart from investors.

The euro is ironed beyond $ 1.2.

U.S. growth is reassuring, Ben Bernanke also

Published yesterday, the Fed's Beige Book confirmed an increase in economic activity in the United States without signs of inflation, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve announced it was expecting a GDP of 3.5% for 2010 and "somewhat" more in 2011. In May, the Fed was between 3.4% and 4.5% for 2011.

Its chairman, Ben Bernanke, said he will remain attentive to the evolution "of the situation abroad.His comments are aimed at Europe in turmoil budget. He said however, "reassured by the answers of Europeans," holding that they have developed a "substantial program.

The economic indicators of importance

In France, industrial production in France fell 0.3% in April, but production of the only manufacturing industry continued to grow, according to figures released Thursday CVS-CJO by INSEE.

In Frankfurt, while it is held by the Governing Council, Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, will deliver the Bank's decision on interest rates to 1% today. A status quo is preferred.

Like every Wednesday, the weekly claims for unemployment benefit in the United States will be published at 14.30. The figures on foreign trade in April will be known at the same time.Then, 20 hours, investors will follow the budget execution figures for the month of May

Japan remains the second largest economy after the United States, while the revised official figures and show a growth of 5% in the first quarter of 2010.

France Telecom, one agrégateurplus a producer

Value-laden France Telecom, which held its annual meeting Tuesday, it appeared necessary to adapt its strategy contained in the competitive environment and has therefore become more assertive as a reader and as a producer, said Wednesday Stéphane Richard, his manager General at the General Assembly cheap pay day loans.

In addition, the telecom authority (Arcep) on Wednesday defended a regulatory context to counterbalance the dominance of France Telecom in the telephony market in France.

The securities yield 0.36% to 15.3 euros.

Air France-KLM: 1,22% + 9,85 eurosSelon information Figaro, Ethiopian Airlines is about to sign an agreement with Star Alliance to join the alliance dominated by Lufthansa. Air France is being shaken to its network and the most profitable.

Total: -1% to 37.73 euros oil group participates in the construction of a solar concentrator 100 megawatts in Abu Dhabi, the largest in the world.

The above shares retreat amid plummeting BP shares, which fell by 15% to the London Stock Exchange on Thursday morning – they dropped 15.8% yesterday on the U.S. markets. In its wake, Technip down 1.3% to 47.25 euros.

Renault: + 3.38% to 30.26 euros change in the financial department head.Thierry Moulonguet will be replaced by the CEO of RCI Banque.

Imerys: + 1.99% to 41.07 euros The Strategic Investment Fund (ISF) announced Wednesday the fall departure of chief executive Gilles Michel, who will join the group of industrial minerals and construction materials, including it should become CEO in 2011, to succeed Gerard Buffière.

French Members Banks, which begin Thursday in open discussion of the draft law regulating banking and finance, also want to discuss with the Government of the German measure to ban naked short selling.

Societe Generale gained 1.28% to 31.15 euros.BNP Paribas, 1.97% to 43.15 euros, Credit Agricole, 2.41% to 8.39 euros.

EADS: + 3.28% to 17.79 euros Eurofighter has launched negotiations with Germany, Spain, Britain and Italy to convince these countries to invest 10 billion euros in next phase of production of its combat aircraft.

Moreover, during the Berlin Air Show, Louis Welsh, the executive chairman said he was "delighted if we could forge a partnership with Embraer, the Brazilian counterpart, said FinanzNachrichten.

The form that could take this partnership has not been specified. In the past, EADS has held a minority stake in Embraer, which he sold in 2007.

The Auchan retail group and its Taiwanese partner Ruentex preparing to list their Chinese activities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.A first for the family business.

Changes in recommendations

Lafarge and Saint-Gobain wins Lafarge 4.03% 48.65% to euro and Saint-Gobain is 4.48% to 31.63 euros. Citigroup raised its recommendation from "hold" to "buy" on the two values.

Vinci: + 1.87% to 37.25 euros ING has started tracking the purchase, with a target price of 44.20 euros.

Realtors? A good indicator of the economy. Today, the stone as the economy heads out from the water, but both of them are not yet fully recovered and remain afloat in midstream. Tails, the good news, transactions leave. This year, Fnaim, the federation of estate agents, believes that the bar of 600 000 transactions could be completed. But the market remains mixed. The nine was widely supported by the success of Scellier law, which allows investors to benefit from a tax of 25% within an investment of EUR 300 000. The former, he, still suffers. Because the coin has two sides. Front side, the bad news, the former has not solved the fluidity necessary for proper functioning of the housing market.These professionals call that the secondly-time buyers, that is to say, households who sell a property to buy another, are still not massively back on the market. In many places and on many products, it is still often difficult to match the expectations of those sellers with buyers.

After a blip like this has crossed the housing market, have a good idea of the price of a property is difficult. All the buyers and sellers are determined based on their expectations about future price developments. Roughly speaking, professionals assume a status quo prices. The most optimistic evoke certain properties, the most sought increases in the order of a few percent. Others believe that the balance should tilt towards a price reduction. Mathilde Lemoine, director of economic studies of HSBC France, and expects a decline in prices of the old 4% this year.For its part, the Land Bank expects "a drop in prices of 3% in the former and stability in the new." And pout Mouillart Michel, Professor of Economics at Paris X-Nanterre, "there is no risk of sudden fall of the market.

Another less quantifiable changed with the crisis and must be taken into account. In real estate, as elsewhere, households are determined to buy at the right price, to be smart consumers and investors informed. The beating of the heart are more difficult. Today, we buy more with his head than his heart. The ball is still in the camp of buyers. They have attractive credit terms. It is indeed possible for those who have the best records, to find a fixed rate loan over fifteen years to 3.5%. It will be hard to beat. "Interest rates will necessarily undergo one or more increases in 2010," said the broker CAFP.In a market recovering, prices are difficult to read. We publish in this case the numbers of notaries, those of the Credit Foncier Fnaim and according to our tour of France prices in Ile-de-France and its regions. Searched information, necessary but not sufficient. For now, the price changes between a product with and without defects, good or bad situation, are becoming wider. To help you better understand these variations, we have pushed the investigation further. With concrete examples of prices that are resistant and those who decline (page 114) and a tour of France that you can buy if you're lucky enough to have a budget of EUR 500 000 (page 142). On most goods, prices have declined from their level two years ago. But they did not collapse.In the Ile-de-France, for example, notaries emphasize that "the decline in prices recorded between autumn 2008 and summer 2009 was about 10%" low fee payday loans. But the downward trend in prices has "interrupted". "On an annual basis, the decline in prices between late 2008 and late 2009 is more than 5.6%," they add. This year they expect a stabilization of prices. And sounding the alarm. "The resumption of the construction of new housing in the private sector was essential to the recovery of the market. The shortage of quality housing appropriate to the needs of Parisians is short-term risk of a return of speculation.

The network Orpi evokes a "real recovery, but fragile." A word that recurs in several experts. Mathilde Lemoine and speaks of a "housing demand remains fragile because of imbalances persist.Yet the French like stone. After the fall of shares in 2008, the erosion rate of return on financial investments, many households have even rediscovered the charms of real estate, which enjoys a level of trust greater than financial markets. If market participants, professionals and individuals, are reasonable, it could therefore grown out of this crisis.

The purchasing power of households holding back price increases

In the nine programs are, at least for this year, many to sprout and marketing is well underway (see page 148), and some programs, proponents talk about buyers sleeping room not to miss the opening the sales office. Others talk of bidding on the price of land currently for sale. We find places for runaway phenomena.Sign of fine weather sets found for Real Estate? Nobody dares to translate it well. Because we have not yet met for the recovery that is taking shape into a market stabilized and restored. "A major risk of the recovery is that sellers reflect recovery by rising prices," says Orpi. For the market to find its stride, the sellers should stop dreaming about trees that rise to heaven, and that construction professionals are able to reflect the changing purchasing power of buyers in their projects. In a recent study based on the relationship between prices and incomes, Patrick Artus (Natixis) estimates that property prices are still too high (10 to 15% in France). Today, many proponents say, if prices rise too far, the application will not be there because the acquisition of a home no longer go into the budgets of many households.This constraint incomes and high unemployment limit the potential for price recovery. Managing the crisis will be difficult for the economy as a whole and real estate. This is the challenge of coming months to policies and professionals. For individuals who have the means to, global rates, market and taxation are conducive to a real estate purchase.If they have a project, they have a vested interest in the reality.

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Marc Simoncini has enriched the right time. He managed to sell its Internet portal iFrance Vivendi before the Internet bubble broke. "I sold it very cheap, 182 million, but nearly half in Vivendi shares, says he. And the course is spent in a few weeks from 100 to 8 euros. I lost enough money to tell me that I could not stop working. So I founded Meetic. "

Ten years ago, world capitalism was attending the breakup of one of the most famous bubbles. That of. Com (dot com in English), these values of the "net economy" that even baptized "new economy". At the time, only 350 million people are connected to the Internet in the world against more than a billion and a half now. But in early 2000, analysts and fund venture capital are already there. They overestimate the ability of start-ups to become profitable and give them carte blanche.Just then an idea, a business plan presented on Powerpoint to convince venture capitalists to invest tens of millions even before he won any customer.

No matter, since a tsunami will occur: the bank branches will close in favor of online banking, consumers will no longer do their shopping in supermarkets and choose the sites of e-commerce …

At that time, Philip Collombel is responsible for web development at Carrefour. "A few months before the bubble burst, the group's leaders had planned to invest hundreds of millions of euros in this area," he recalls. Finally, all the ambitious ideas have been put in closets. "We threw the baby out with the bathwater," Regrets Philippe Collombel.Ten years and two owners later, Carrefour has announced its intention to buy a player in online commerce to catch up on the subject. Ooshop.com The site, launched at the time – now renamed Crossroads – sells little more than a large supermarket.

But the food is one of the few sectors where e-commerce has not taken a prominent place. The use of the Internet has indeed developed a massive scale, even if it took longer than expected. With their billions of dollars in profitable sales, Amazon, Yahoo, eBay are still there, joined by thousands of businesses, net of pure players or players converted traditional flexible cash advance payments .Opel asked credits or credit guarantees given that restructuring GM sales to 3.3 billion euros in hoping to get 2.7 billion euros state aid.

Also according to the owner of Opel, the group hopes a return to balance in 2011 and "a reasonable profit in 2012. By 2014, it wants to invest 11 billion euros including renewing the range.

Initially, GM had hoped to disengage from Opel before turning back.

However, things do not seem yet settled because some details are under discussion with unions including Nick Reilly said "respect the difficult role.

After three sessions "for nothing", investors seem to be a little more optimistic on that last week's meeting. The publication, at 14.30, figures on U.S. employment for the month of December has revealed an unemployment rate stable at 10%. The U.S. has destroyed 85,000 jobs over the last month of the year, far more than expected by economists.

Recall that the statistics revealed in December for the month of November had been particularly good. Yesterday evening, the U.S. stock exchanges closed at equilibrium. While Asia has ended in hesitation, but with a jump in Tokyo.

In an interview with Le Figaro, Patrick Devedjian, minister responsible for implementing the recovery plan, draws up an initial assessment.More generally, Aurel BCG 'fears about the quality of the debts of some Member States and economic indicators still very erratic combine to maintain doubts about the prospects for the euro zone, including short term. "

At 11 hours, Eurostat reported unemployment in the euro area rose, reaching the symbolic threshold of 10% and confirmed that the rate of GDP growth stood at 0.4% in third quarter, compared to the second.

In France, the trade deficit of France was again widened in November. It reached 5.304 billion euros, according to Customs. Later, investors will also some attention to the index of construction costs in the third quarter in France. In Spain, industrial production fell 5.7% in November.

On Thursday the Bank of England decided to keep rates unchanged.The day before, the minutes of the Fed suggested a prolonged status quo on U.S. monetary policy.

On the currency front, the euro has stabilized against the dollar, traders taking a cautious stance before the publication of figures for U.S. employment.

Veolia Environnement still leads

In this market optimism, Veolia Environment (+3.91% at 25.10 euros), still leading the ranking of ACC 40, supported by integration by Goldman Sachs in its list of preferred values. Dexia gained 1.55% to 4.98 euros, while the bank has good looks, including Societe Generale, which won 1.50%, to 51.53 euros, which warned Friday it wants to consolidate all its assets Toxic scattered around the world.

Conversely, Renault lost 0.78%.The group should choose to assemble its new model on the site of Bursa, according to the Tribune on Friday.

Out of CAC 40 companies and Gameloft Beneteau derive Sector Index leisure facilities to increase (+2%). Beneteau (+8.80% at 12.49 euros) has announced a turnover of 87.7 million for its first quarter 2009-2010.

About the 400M (which actually date a third flight), "at a meeting of Secretaries of State will be held in London January 14," said a spokesman for the German Ministry of Defense AFP.The boss of Airbus (EADS subsidiary, 0.99% to 14.35 euros), the German Thomas Enders, has told a Christmas dinner of the director in December that it would " believed in a continuation of the program, and have begun to prepare its end, said Tuesday the Financial Times Deutschland.

The state, which holds more than 90% stake in Areva (-1.4% to 370.55 euros), discussed today with three partners in particular: the Japanese industrial Mitsubishi longstanding partner of the group nuclear, Qatar's sovereign wealth fund and its counterpart in Kuwait.

Bollor? Telecom, cantor of WiMax and a subsidiary of Bollor? Group (+0.17% to 118.20 euros) just bought the operator Altitude WiMax licenses of Alsace and Burgundy regions.

The second French operator of mobile telephony, SFR (subsidiary of Vivendi), claimed on Thursday offers the most complete multifunction phones, thanks to exclusive deals with Palm and Google. Vivendi (-1.18% to 20.86 euros), precisely, the trial in New York continues its course. This public trial in class action accuses the group of giving financial communications strompeuses between 2000 and 2002.

Rentabiliweb announced this morning launching a capital increase of 10 million euros. Its shares are now traded on Euronext, and not on Alternext.

The two bad U.S. indicators were not sufficient to curb the enthusiasm of investors on the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40 closed up about 0.32% to 3910.75 points, above the threshold of the fateful 3900 points. When the transaction volume, it remains very low at 1.9 billion euros.

After a setback, following the publication of figures for new home sales in the United States and the index of consumer confidence, the market has finally resumed.

The detailed values follow …