Entries health of banks published on Friday
While the EBA is preparing to issue health bulletins today of 91 European banks, not this year – the third of its kind – had emerged as perilous. These stress tests are designed to reassure the strength of the European banking system, ensuring that they are adequately capitalized to deal with simulations of shocks on growth, equity markets or real estate.
So far, the main risk was to fail to convince, as was the case a year ago.With markets abusing European banks in turmoil on sovereign debt, the danger is now adding fuel to the fire …
The Institute of International Finance, which includes 400 credit institutions in the world, concerned that the emphasis of the supervisor to publish banks' exposures to the sovereign debt would aggravate tensions in the markets.For if the stress tests are unwilling to consider the hypothesis of a failure, even partial, state of the euro area, even though the scenario is not ruled by some European finance ministers, analysts will not go without applying the discount corresponding to their own calculations.
In fact, stress tests, vintage 2011, were built partly in response to criticism of the 2010 vintage: his credibility was undermined when the Irish banks were left to the mat a few months after passing their check-up! Hence the idea that the number of "recalibrated" should be higher than last year: in July 2010, seven banks have been stigmatized with a lack of capital combined 3 billion euros only .
Confusion
From this perspective, the tension went crescendo in recent days.Adding to the sense of confusion at the moment that sticks to all European decision-making, many countries or institutions have formally or informally, started to spill the beans. The German regional bank Helaba was denounced by itself, Wednesday, accusing the same time the EBA does not take into account the 'silent participation' 10% owned by the state of Hesse in his capital is not regarded as capital drives. In Spain, two savings banks, suspected to be among the victims of stress tests, have healthy self-proclaimed as yesterday, stating that their criteria are not exactly the same as those used in Europe! The Spanish authorities have also criticized the method of Constable European banking.
Although it was heavily judging, fiscal 2010 proved useful over time.A study by Morgan Stanley, 19 of the 22 listed banks passing the bar set by the supervisor by a margin of 2.25%, have increased since their capital. Thus, if the EBA requires a minimum of 5% capital ratio, "we believe that investors will scrutinize those who pass with a margin of less than 1%," warned analysts at Morgan Stanley.
Still, by nature, the exercise is not enough to reassure the markets. It focuses, in fact, on the solvency of banks when the rising concern about the cost and availability of the resources they need to find on the market. In the current climate of mistrust, the market assess the health of banks, primarily through the quality of the signing of their country of origin.For financial institutions of Europe device, each day that passes makes access to capital more expensive and more difficult and more involved when a deterioration in the sovereign rating by any rating agency.
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