In September, it is the purchase of textile-leather and energy costs which have lowered consumption. These expenditures have dropped respectively by 4.7% and 4% last month, a much greater decline than in previous months. For the textile sector, the wrong number "announcement of hard times," Judge Camille Williencourt, an economist at Natixis. It points out that consumption fell by 17% in this sector since the second quarter of 2007.A sign that the industry "is recovering gradually, after a very poor second quarter impacted by the decision of the cash for clunkers," said Camille Williencourt payday loans for bad credit.

INSEE had Tuesday reported an unexpected improvement of consumer confidence in October. Indeed, they are much less likely to anticipate a rise in unemployment – although the statistics published this week have reported a record high – and are optimistic that this summer on their future standard of living. Other anticipation apparently bodes well for the consumption of the end of the year, they were also more likely to feel the need to make major purchases. But despite these positive developments, "consumer sentiment remains generally depressed, said Helene Baudchon, economist at BNP Paribas, well below its long-term average of 100."

By category, so there is between 2.78 and 4.175 million unemployed in France. A level not seen since January 2000 in Class A and never reached at all, the combination A, B and C.Results for the six months to less catastrophic for the presidential and the more so as the number of registered unemployed in category D (that is to say, training, training, illness or device reclassification as contract Professional security and therefore not required to seek work), jumped 3.8% in September after several months of declines or relative stability. Proof, if needed, that the social treatment of unemployment on public money is well and truly left full in September.

In a statement, Xavier Bertrand "takes note of these poor figures related to the downturn." The Minister of Labour and Employment took the opportunity to recall the "absolute engagement" government "on the employment front, especially for young people."And for good reason: the number of under 25 not engaged in any activity which have registered at employment center grew 0.6% in September, bringing down over-year to 2% when it was over 6 % on the first months of the year.

It is mostly young men who enrolled en masse in September (1.3% against 0.1% for young women)."The new measures already in force of the law of 28 July 2011, including the ability to start an apprenticeship contract immediately without learning, practical solutions to the challenges made in the field should enable all young people wishing to enter alternately you can do, "warns, however, Xavier Bertrand cashadvance.

Sudden economic downturn

The Minister did, however, no word in the direction of the unemployed and senior long-term which, when not hurt, have been hard hit by the economic downturn last month. The number of unemployed people over 55 increased by 2.1% in group A (a jump of 14.3% over one year) and that of long-term unemployed, 0.7%.

The cold shower is especially icy for job seekers registered for more than three years employment center (+2.5% on month and 21% year on year).Immediate consequence, the average length of employment center has yet to take one day at 456 (against 394 days two years ago), and the share of registered unemployed for over a year unemployed now stands at 38.2 %, up 8.5 points history since the beginning of the crisis.

Apart from the inscriptions following a redundancy which continue to decline (-2.5% over one month and 12% year on year), the other two main reasons for entry are on the rise: the purpose CDD (+4.5% on month and 9.7% year on year) and for temporary assignments (+0.3% in a month and 13.6% in twelve months).

As for administrative radiation, often a source of controversy, they are this time not in any case. They rose in effect from 4% in September and were virtually unchanged over the year.The other bad news, confirming the sudden economic downturn, concerns finally collected and vacancies filled by employment center that fell in September, respectively, 7.1 and 5.3% over one month.

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• Discount of up to 60% of the Greek debt

According to diplomatic sources, the ministers agreed to effectively negotiate with the banks at a discount of "at least 50%" against a target of 21% decided on July 21 with the banking sector. They thus de facto endorsed the conclusions of an expert report which was presented by the troika of donor funds in Greece (EU, ECB and IMF).The paper believes that a discount of 50 or 60% hope to stabilize Greece without having to increase in the amount of gigantic international loans that have already been promised.

A "discount" is the term used in relation to the financial depreciation of the value of loans taken by creditors in this case private banks and investment funds that hold government debt. A discount of 50% borne by the private sector, the second program of financial support pledged July 21 to Greece, however, should be slightly revised upwards with government loans (Europe and IMF) to 114 billion euros, against 109 billion euros.To maintain the envelope of 109 billion euros unchanged, it would bring the discount to 60%, according to calculations by experts.

• Recapitalization of banks to the tune of 108 billion euros

The question is whether the banks that have so far dragged its feet to give the pot, will accept a negotiated settlement does not pass through a default of Greece. In return for the effort required on the Greek claims, there are plans to recapitalize banks in Europe. Following a meeting of EU finance ministers, this Saturday, in preparation for the summit Sunday, no agreement had been finalized on this point, due to the persistence of disputes.

"We have made some progress on the banks" and "we have laid the groundwork for an agreement" which will still be subject to "discussions between heads of state" and called for European governments to meet in summit Sunday said Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg. Countries of the European Union are considering a recapitalization of its banks to the tune of 107 or 108 billion euros to help them cope with the crisis, has also said a source familiar with the matter.

But according to European diplomats, "there is no agreement on the recapitalization, it gets stuck a little." According to one of these diplomatic sources, "Spain insists on having a comprehensive, not only on the recapitalization of banks but also on strengthening the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF)." On the other hand, "the ministers are trying to agree on the minimum capital."The European Banking Authority (EBA) has proposed that banks reach a level of capital of 9% by mid-2012. A diplomat acknowledged that some countries in the viewfinder of the markets, like Italy, Spain or Portugal, feared that the recapitalization will further undermine public finances.

• The Fund will not support a bank

Moreover, the French proposal to grant a banking license to the Fund support the euro area (EFSF) so he can refinance with the European Central Bank "is no longer on the table," said Minister Dutch Finance Jan Kees de Jager. Only two options are being discussed to increase the firepower of the device, he told reporters Saturday.These two tracks on the agenda now that the mechanism acts as a partial insurance of the public debt of countries in difficulty or higher participation of the IMF to the device, according to a German government source. But there is "significant differences between countries" on the issue, said Jan Kees de Jager.

How to leverage the capacity of the EFSF was the main sticking point between Berlin and Paris at the approach of the EU summit. France, worried about its budget deficit and are "triple AAA" prefer tap into the existing European funds, starting with the ECB. Germany, also sensitive to the separation of powers as inflation risks, refuses anything resembling a crisis by printing money in Europe.France was not only to advocate the involvement of the ECB, arguing that this system worked very well in the United States or Great Britain. She was supported by Spain, Italy or Belgium.

The European Relief Fund currently has a lending capacity of 440 billion euros, part of which is already committed for Ireland and Portugal. This envelope is considered insufficient to prevent contagion of the debt crisis in countries as large as Italy and Spain, increasingly in the firing line of credit rating agencies.European countries negotiate so hard for weeks on the best way, via a "leverage" to multiply by up to five response capacity of the Fund's financial debt of fragile countries.

(With agencies)

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Following the same curve as the price index, the benchmark rents had fallen sharply during the crisis, before recovering from the first quarter of 2010. However, according to figures released Wednesday by INSEE, inflation emerged up 2.2% year on year in September, despite a slowdown during the past month.

Consequence of this increase in the IRL, the owners can raise rents to their tenants under lease, 1.90% maximum per year. This ceiling is not to be confused with the increase that may require the owner at the end of the lease, and which itself is not subject to this limit.

Rising rents slows

They are also in the process of marking time, like the sale price. The latest observation Clamor, the rents charged to new tenants were up 0.9% over the first eight months of the year, against 1.4% a year earlier. In 34% of cities in France, this trend is even negative. This is for example the case in Paris (-0.1%), Bordeaux (-0.9%) or Toulouse (-0.4%).

In other cities of the Hexagon, however, rents remain strong on the upside. This is the case in Lyon (+1.2%), Nantes (+1.7%), Lille (1.9%) or Le Havre (+2%). For the full year, Clamor expects an average increase of 1.5% to 1.8% against 2.5% in 2010.

The Observatory notes wide disparities between the cities but also between the quality of rented accommodation.Owners who make improvements before entering into a new lease rent on average well 9.3% more than the previous occupant. However, when the property is rented without work, its rental value decreases by an average of 5.4%.

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Investors should in all cases be cautious on the Old Continent, especially after the deterioration of the Italian sovereign debt on Tuesday, which must be added the absence of a clear response from the area in the euro area on the Greek crisis. The conference held the day before between the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the heads of mission of the "troika" of the creditors of the country has still not been completed. Only "good progress has been made," the European Commission ruled in a statement. Yet it must release the next tranche of aid and vital in Athens 8 billion euros.The Greek authorities are pressed by their foreign creditors to accelerate the reduction of budgetary expenditures, while the other side, protesters denounced the daily ravages of austerity.

Brazil could help the euro area

In addition, the Greek daily Kathimerini Athens unveiled Tuesday would consider holding a referendum on the continuation of Greece in the euro area to strengthen its legitimacy in its management of the debt crisis. A bill prior to the referendum would be discussed in the coming days, the newspaper said, quoting unspecified sources.Athens, however, denied such a referendum.

While the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) had indicated last week the possibility of supporting the euro area by increasing their holdings of bonds, the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, confirmed this position at Barack Obama on Wednesday at a meeting in New York.

On the macroeconomic front, the United States, home resales for the month of August are expected in 16 hours as the weekly inventory of crude oil at 16.30.

In Britain, the public finance figures for August are expected.

In Italy, the current account balance for the month of July will be published.

In Japan, foreign trade figures for August will also be unveiled.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remained stable against the dollar Wednesday after Greece has reported "satisfactory progress" with the troika of creditors, but the markets remained nervous awaiting the announcements of the Fed . Around 8 am, the European currency was worth 1.3703 dollars against 1.3702 dollars the night before.

As for oil, it was down Wednesday morning in a market desperate to face the crisis of debt in the euro area, pending a decision by the Fed to promote economic recovery of the largest consumer of crude in the world.In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery gave up 53 cents to 86.38 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery lost 37 cents to 110.17 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• Banking

After the degradation of Italian sovereign debt, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas, which are exposed, will still be observed.

Attention will also Dexia, which would have allowed for 25 billion euros in loans toxic entities in 5500, according to Liberation.The additional cost of these credits was estimated at 3.9 billion euros at the end of 2009.

• Bouygues

The group filed with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) the prospectus of the takeover of shares of € 1.25 billion announced on August 31, at 30 euros per share.

• Saffron

The aerospace equipment mandated banks Mediobanca and UBS to bid for the Italian manufacturer of aircraft engines Avio, reports the newspaper front page.

• Canal +

The Competition Authority decided Wednesday to withdraw the decision to authorize the merger of satellite packages CanalSat and TPS, completed in 2007, finding that Canal Plus had "failed to comply with a number of commitments" made to avoid misuse its dominant position.Groupe Canal Plus also sees a fine of 30 million euros.

• JCDecaux

According to Les Echos, the group won an exclusive contract advertising on two subway lines in Chongqing in China for a period of 15 years, but did not disclose financial details.

• Le Noble Age

The company announced in a press up all its results in the 1st half (34% to 3.68 million euros for the net) and confirmed the increase in its forecast of EBITDAR margin ( Operating income before depreciation, amortization and rent) at cruising speed greater than 27% by year end.

Free for all is not over. The State Council will consider the application for annulment of the procedure "in the coming months." Meanwhile, the call for applications for these frequencies will take its course. And the timing is tight.The operators concerned must submit an application before September 15 for the 2.6 GHz band and before December 15 for the 800 MHz band, which relate to the state at least 2 low fee payday advance.5 billion euros and accelerate access mobile Internet. "We were as far as possible to encourage competition. But we also need strong operators, able to achieve very significant investment for years to come, "explained the Minister of Industry Éric Besson Le Figaro on Monday.

Two other cases against the call for applications for licenses 4G remain. Several unions require the licensing to be accompanied by a clause of "location of jobs in France." Bouygues Telecom, for its part, denies that the operators have to bear the costs associated with the 4G frequency interference by the signals of TNT."We assess that risk to less than 2% of homes," said Eric Besson minimized Monday in Le Figaro. In response, however, the government will establish "a single phone number with a small call center, so that individuals can report any such interference on their TV and get the linkage with the responsible operator."

Of the places in China, Hong Kong the Hang Seng 1.45% yield while the composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.68% to 1134.65 points. In Seoul, the Kospi index is left in the green, up 0.71% to 1819.14 points after plunging by 4% in early trade.

Investors remain concerned, however, fearing another recession in the United States and a spillover of the crisis of debt in the eurozone payday loan lenders. The gold and reached new records, crossing first the maximum 1800 dollars.It was worth 1814.50 dollars in the morning before going down to 1785 dollars. Another safe haven, the yen appreciates, and is worth 76.63 dollars, against 76.83 the previous day.

Oil also set off again down in Asia. Yet he had resisted the panic the day before with the announcement of a dramatic and unexpected decline in crude inventories in the United States. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" lost 79 cents to 82.10 dollars and that of Brent North Sea fell by 1.10 dollars to 105.58 dollars.

.

Is the degradation of the notes of the United States plunges us into a new crisis?

The fact that the United States lose their triple-A means that they have a slightly higher probability of defaulting. But by switching to "AA +", this probability is very low. Moreover, experts and analysts do not believe at all a failure to pay the largest economy in the world. So there is no reason to panic.However, the multiple consequences which such degradation can they prove to be very disturbing.

For example?

The fact that S & P has dared to sacrifice the American note puts enormous pressure on other countries rated AAA, particularly in Europe as the UK or even France. This announcement will fuel fears of a contagion of degradation of notes, when the markets seemed to panic this week. In Italy and Spain (already degraded) in particular, tensions are rising, although they seem to be the new target markets. Moreover, the impact on the banks direct. They will have to review their capital allocation taking into account the appearance of more risky U.S. bonds they hold, as they impose the new international regulations, to strengthen the solvency of banks (Basel III).The recent bank stress tests, whose results were given there only three weeks, have already lost all credibility because they did not include either a restructuring of the Greek debt, or a deterioration note the United States.

Why such a lowering of note can threaten the global economy?

When the debt rating of long-term decline in the U.S., this means that more may not be refunded if the creditor is. However, the markets, the risk is remunerated by interest rates: if I am less sure of being repaid, so I request a higher rate. Thus, losing the "AAA", the U.S. interest rates at 5 years, 10, 20, 30, will mechanically increase.And if rates rise, it's a downward spiral of investment and consumption that will engage, which produces more unemployment, less tax revenue and public expenditure. This government deficits widen further, and sovereign debt. But during the past two weeks very turbulent markets, the U.S. long rates remained very low. There have never been so low, a sign of investor confidence.

There is still a little time, no one imagined the United States lose their AAA. How did they get there?

The problem the U.S. is that they have more flexibility, or a monetary point of view, or budget.On the one hand, monetary policy can not be more accommodating, having pumped billions and billions of dollars of liquidity into the markets and set the interest rate floor (they are between 0% and 0.5 %) to restore the U.S. economy weighed down by the subprime crisis that has capitulated Lehman Brothers, three years ago. On the other, public spending has been poorly controlled, while the U.S. tax burden is already high. Difficult in these conditions for fiscal consolidation.

It is like in Japan twenty years ago …

Exactly, you are right in the Japanese-style scenario. The United States could enter a situation of liquidity trap in which Japan was mired in the 1990s, but never really escape. Rates were zero and sluggish growth, while prices fell, leaving Japan trapped.United States, the U.S. central bank, the Fed is now more capable of supporting the U.S. economy, which has not really recovered from the crisis, according to the latest statistics. Growth for 2011 looks less than expected, despite the monetary support giant that has been deployed. It remains to be seen whether this will result in deflation (lower prices) or if inflation will return. The best case scenario would be the second, to prevent the United States is experiencing a "lost decade" in Japan.

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After discussions between key leaders of Congress – Democrats at the head of the Senate and the Republican majority in the House of Representatives – Barack Obama said he will hold a press conference Monday at 17 noon, Paris. The negotiations between elected to continue thereafter.MPs also plan to meet every day until they reach an agreement, says Bloomberg.

Despite the optimism displayed by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who believes that "the U.S. will not default," the discussions on key topics such as tax increases or program of government spending have little progressed. Republicans and Democrats continue to disagree on the remedies to lower debt. "It is appalling that the president and his party continues to insist on the need to raise taxes in a crisis when they refuse to reduce spending," said the spokesman of the Republican minority in the Senate at the end of meeting Sunday night.For her part, Nancy Pelosi, representative of the minority Democrats in the House of Representatives, is confident that "a consensual agreement is reached (…) it could, she says," include more cuts in public spending but on a longer period. " But she says being uncomfortable with the idea of ​​"saving billions of public health."

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"One of the members of the commission has indicated that he was later forced to recuse himself," said Gerard Palisse, president of the petitions committee of the Court. This is Laurence Fradin, magistrate at the Court of Auditors and wife of Pierre Joxe, former Socialist Minister of Defense and the Interior of François Mitterrand, as was Bernard Tapie. Judicial source, the judge cited a possible conflict of interest.

Gerard Palisse stated that "the alternate member of the Court which could have us make up for his part that he himself was unable to do so immediately without prior knowledge of the case.The Committee decided to defer consideration of this matter Thursday, August 4. "

The survey would be long

The former Minister of Economy and current executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is suspected of "abuse of authority" in the arbitration in July 2008 on the case Tapie, Credit Lyonnais on line pay day loans. The businessman, who felt cheated after the sale of Adidas in 1993 with Credit Lyonnais, had obtained 285 million euros of public funds.

In May, the Attorney General of the Supreme Court, Jean-Louis Nadal, asked the petitions committee of the RGC to investigate the matter. He specifically criticized Christine Largarde for choosing private arbitration, but also refusing to appeal against the award, while the number of specialists are encouraged.If the Court decides to initiate the investigation, it should be long and Christine Lagarde would not be considered for several years. The new leader denies IMF, meanwhile, abuse of authority in this matter and have provided "clear conscience".

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