No miracle. Greece's gross domestic product will fall by "around 5%" this year, suffering a fifth year of recession, acknowledged Tuesday the Bank of Greece. The plunge "will be less pronounced than in 2011", where GDP fell 6.9%, concedes the national bank, but 0.5 points higher than it expected in March. And it is also necessary that the restructuring measures promised by Athens to be "implemented without delay."

Unemployment, says the Bank of Greece, will exceed 12% of the workforce this year, against 17.7% last year, while inflation will be around 1.2%. And the future of the country, which aims for this year a deficit of 7% of GDP and a reduction of its debt to 145.5%, against 9.1% and 165.3% in 2011, rests entirely on the recapitalization of its banks, thanks to 50 billion euros in aid provided by its creditors. They were accused last year a record loss of 27.9 billion euros.

For Panagiotis Tampoureas, director of development pole of the ATE bank in Athens, the estimate of the central bank "is still very optimistic." In his view, the continued decline in wages and consumption can only increase at half the recession yet.

If the Governor of the Bank of Greece, George Provopoulos, underscores, once again warned his country against the risk of leaving the euro area, it must consider the uncertainties posed by parliamentary elections on May 6 Although 36 parties have submitted bids, Greece will probably have to seek a coalition government between the conservative New Democracy and PASOK socialist.

Pension fraud

Will it have the means to stay the course of rigor? This is not won. The government has discovered 200,000 cases of fraud in pensions and social benefits over two years – enough to save over 800 million euros a year.

The Ministry of Labour has also identified 4,000 businesses that reported the imputed social contributions. And Greece, which combines a shortfall of 60 billion euros in unpaid taxes, is preparing to create an electronic record capable of correlating all transactions of taxpayers with the banks, credit insurance, hospitals and all public services. He could emerge from this year and significantly reduce tax evasion.

But the Greek authorities also face another reality of the crisis. In the first half of this year, calculates the European Commission, a thousand individual companies will put the key under the door every week in the country. This is the same economic base of Greece disappears. In 2010, there were indeed very small companies with 742,600 total 2.51 million employees, over 85% of total employment in the country.

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After the Millers last week, it was the turn of the manufacturers of dry dog ​​and cat to be sanctioned by the Competition Authority. In a country of 8 million dogs and 10 million cats, groups Nestle (Purina), March (Royal Canin) and Colgate-Palmolive (Hill's Pet Nutrition) were sentenced to pay 35.3 million euros for cartel with their wholesalers.

According to the sages of the Rue de l'Echelle, Nestle and Mars agreed for five years (2004-2008) with their wholesalers, who then sold their stores croquettes (BHV Jardiland, Leroy Merlin, Truffaut …).

The two market leaders have imposed their resale prices, exclusive territorial or customer, thus limiting competition between them. Royal Canin had already been convicted in 2005 by Constable competition.

As for the subsidiary of Colgate-Palmolive, she has arranged with its veterinary wholesalers to ban the export of its products outside the Hexagon.

If Nestlé and Mars are the most heavily penalized (19 and 11.6 million fine), they nevertheless benefited from reductions of approximately 20% penalty for not contesting the facts. They also set up compliance programs to competition rules. Finally, they reorganized their distribution system and p

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China's growth confirms its moderation. All indicators earlier this year indicate a general slowdown given the Chinese engine. This weekend, China Customs have announced for the February trade deficit of $ 31.5 billion. The most since 1989, according to figures from Bloomberg.

China's demand for foreign goods, raw materials whose economy is greedy, in particular, continued to grow, while the two main trade partners of Beijing, the European Union and the United States, slowing their orders in a difficult economic environment on both sides of the Atlantic. Exports then rose only 6.9% on the first two months of the year, year on year, against 13.4% in December, while imports grew by 7.7% at the same time, against 11 , 8% in December.

China's trade balance continues to play a little yo-yo earlier this year, with the effect of Chinese New Year festivities, which saw disengage almost all plants of the country. But last week, Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming announced already that keep foreign trade growth to 10% as in the past would ask "hard efforts".

Inflation sharply down

For it is all Chinese machine out of steam. By last weekend, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that industrial production grew by 11.4% over January and February, its lowest level in two and a half years, and retail sales of 14.7 %.

Inflation has never been so low in twenty months. The index of consumer prices rose only 3.2% over one year against 5.4% for the whole of 2011. A figure lower than expected, but also below the target the government set itself for 2012 to 4%. This price moderation should breathe a sigh of relief to more than a senior party. She had become, last year, a major concern of the central government, fearing that it would nourish the social scolds. Reassured, the Chinese leaders could now ease off on their monetary policy and the exchange rate of the yuan.

But the pause early this year by China's growth is primarily seasonal, with the parenthesis Chinese New Year, the central government may wish to wait for confirmation of this curbing of its economy before flowing again . The specter of inflation, which can leave at any moment, has not deserted the minds of Beijing.

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BNP Paribas has limited the damage last year. Despite the crisis of the euro, which hit the banking sector especially during the second half of the year, the French group reached 6 billion euros in profit in 2011, down only 22.9%. It's better than expected by the market.

This figure covers two very contrasting. On the one hand, the retail place performance. Over the full year, this activity reached 5.9 billion euros'' profit before tax, of which nearly $ 2 billion in France (12%). the fourth quarter alone. Networks alone will clear almost all of the taxable profit of the group: 1.2 billion on 1.3 billion.

On the other hand, the sovereign debt crisis weighed heavily on the bank. A pressure that is exerted on the first banking business and investment banking. The division will have realized that 6 million profit last quarter, although this remains more than adequate compared to the losses recorded by many major European banks that have already published their accounts.

Especially, BNP Paribas will found in 2011 more than 4 billion euros in losses on its portfolio of European government debt: $ 3.2 billion on Greece, whose value was reduced by 75% in the perspective plan restructuring being finalized at the European level, plus 872 million of realized losses on the sale of government securities. Since the summer, BNP Paribas has significantly reduced its exposure to sovereign debt. She also collected 148 million of losses on loans it has sold to lighten its balance sheet.

With 6 billion profit in 2011, BNP Paribas is expected to maintain its lead over its competitors. Credit Agricole SA announced in December that he would complete the year in the red after a cleaning operation of its balance sheets. Societe Generale – which will publish its Thursday tomorrow – has warned it would not distribute any dividend.

In this regard, BNP Paribas says it will affect a quarter of its distributable income to the payment of a dividend payable in cash or shares. The bank says in effect have already exceeded the target of 9% capital adequacy set by the authorities in the whole industry in Europe.

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Yesterday the market was still tune in slow motion. The trade volume has exceeded painfully € 2 billion on the great values ​​of the Paris stock exchange payday loans. On this day of "Black Friday" in U.S. markets opened for a half session. This day, like every day after Thanksgiving, sounds the start of the race for Christmas Atlantique.Chasse addition to good affairesAprès six consecutive sessions of sharp declines, few operators present at the Paris Stock Exchange engaged in an intense bargain hunting in financials and cyclicals.

This seems incongruous. With the crisis, sales of aggregates are indeed increased from 431,000 tons three years ago to 365,000 tonnes in 2010. "But over a long period, the annual consumption of the Hexagon is around 400 million tonnes, says Nicolas Vuillier, president of the UNPG. One kilometer of highway requires 30,000 tons of aggregates, construction of a hospital between 20,000 and 40,000 tons. But with environmental constraints, a lot of careers close.Today, there are still 2500, 5000 against fifteen years ago. "

This intensified competition among the three main French actors, groups BTP Vinci and Bouygues (through their subsidiary road, and Eurovia Colas, respectively), followed by building materials giant Lafarge. Eurovia built last year a turnover of 500 million euros, extracting 55 million tonnes of its French quarries.

The pebbles are attracting ever-increasing appetite, because this business can secure the supply of concrete for groups of building materials, and asphalt for road specialists. In addition, their operation is a high margin business. On average, operating income up 20% of their turnover. "Careers require a lot of investment grade Guy Vacher, Chief Operating Officer of Eurovia.

Good news however for users Transilien (train network in the Île-de-France), the Thalys and Eurostar.Traffic on these lines should be "near normal" according to SNCF.

Transport Minister, Thierry Mariani, Thursday criticized the work stoppage of workers, finding that it was not "appropriate response" to the extent that he believes "it is not an act delinquency, this is a person who clearly has mental problems. " "This is not stopping the trains that they stop the insane," he said. The President of the SNCF, Guillaume Pepy, is on the same line. "This is a rare occurrence, an attack of such violence.It would serve no purpose to penalize travelers simply because a dangerous madman attacked controllers, "he said in Besançon, where the controller was assaulted in hospital.

No train service on the night of Thursday to Friday

The strike controller led Thursday the cancellation of all trains at night, and created a big mess all over the country. Some passengers were stranded at the station waiting for a hypothetical train.

Board trains at the Gare Saint-Charles in Marseille. Photo credits: GERARD JULIEN / AFP

The terms of this agreement shall remain confidential. Note that Samsung should pay, however, could be as salty as that of HTC, which would pay about $ 5 a smartphone. The success of the Samsung Galaxy SII should fully make the computer giant.

In addition to this financial agreement, Samsung is committed to supporting the development and marketing of Windows Home Phone System. The Korean giant has also announced the launch of the Omnia W under the new version of the operating system.

Google angry

While Microsoft enjoys this new victory, Google outcry. The system designer Android is supposed to be free, denounced a "tactic for many times," close to extortion. "Failing to succeed in the market for smartphones, Microsoft relies on legal measures to extract profits from the success of others and may impede the pace of innovation," protested one voice. "We remain focused on the development of new technologies and partner support of Android," he said.

Terminal manufacturers using this operating system are in a very uncomfortable situation. First, Android is very expensive. On the other hand, the surprise takeover of Motorola's mobile division by Google places them under direct threat of seeing the search engine to give priority access to innovations in its new line of mobile phones.

The parade is perhaps the signing of new partnerships. Samsung is well to conclude an agreement with Intel to develop another operating system called Tizen.

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Investors should in all cases be cautious on the Old Continent, especially after the deterioration of the Italian sovereign debt on Tuesday, which must be added the absence of a clear response from the area in the euro area on the Greek crisis. The conference held the day before between the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the heads of mission of the "troika" of the creditors of the country has still not been completed. Only "good progress has been made," the European Commission ruled in a statement. Yet it must release the next tranche of aid and vital in Athens 8 billion euros.The Greek authorities are pressed by their foreign creditors to accelerate the reduction of budgetary expenditures, while the other side, protesters denounced the daily ravages of austerity.

Brazil could help the euro area

In addition, the Greek daily Kathimerini Athens unveiled Tuesday would consider holding a referendum on the continuation of Greece in the euro area to strengthen its legitimacy in its management of the debt crisis. A bill prior to the referendum would be discussed in the coming days, the newspaper said, quoting unspecified sources.Athens, however, denied such a referendum.

While the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) had indicated last week the possibility of supporting the euro area by increasing their holdings of bonds, the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, confirmed this position at Barack Obama on Wednesday at a meeting in New York.

On the macroeconomic front, the United States, home resales for the month of August are expected in 16 hours as the weekly inventory of crude oil at 16.30.

In Britain, the public finance figures for August are expected.

In Italy, the current account balance for the month of July will be published.

In Japan, foreign trade figures for August will also be unveiled.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remained stable against the dollar Wednesday after Greece has reported "satisfactory progress" with the troika of creditors, but the markets remained nervous awaiting the announcements of the Fed . Around 8 am, the European currency was worth 1.3703 dollars against 1.3702 dollars the night before.

As for oil, it was down Wednesday morning in a market desperate to face the crisis of debt in the euro area, pending a decision by the Fed to promote economic recovery of the largest consumer of crude in the world.In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery gave up 53 cents to 86.38 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery lost 37 cents to 110.17 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• Banking

After the degradation of Italian sovereign debt, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas, which are exposed, will still be observed.

Attention will also Dexia, which would have allowed for 25 billion euros in loans toxic entities in 5500, according to Liberation.The additional cost of these credits was estimated at 3.9 billion euros at the end of 2009.

• Bouygues

The group filed with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) the prospectus of the takeover of shares of € 1.25 billion announced on August 31, at 30 euros per share.

• Saffron

The aerospace equipment mandated banks Mediobanca and UBS to bid for the Italian manufacturer of aircraft engines Avio, reports the newspaper front page.

• Canal +

The Competition Authority decided Wednesday to withdraw the decision to authorize the merger of satellite packages CanalSat and TPS, completed in 2007, finding that Canal Plus had "failed to comply with a number of commitments" made to avoid misuse its dominant position.Groupe Canal Plus also sees a fine of 30 million euros.

• JCDecaux

According to Les Echos, the group won an exclusive contract advertising on two subway lines in Chongqing in China for a period of 15 years, but did not disclose financial details.

• Le Noble Age

The company announced in a press up all its results in the 1st half (34% to 3.68 million euros for the net) and confirmed the increase in its forecast of EBITDAR margin ( Operating income before depreciation, amortization and rent) at cruising speed greater than 27% by year end.

This platform will be closed in mid-November. "The French agriculture is a key sector and must be present in the Presidential debate, said Xavier Beulin, a number of FNSEA. We will ask the candidates to express themselves and engage in relation to our proposals. "

Important themes, four stand out.On the top of the stack, that of improving the competitiveness of French agriculture. It has been deteriorating over the past five years. So much so that France, land of all agricultural production has shifted from first to third place behind Germany and the Netherlands in the field of agri-food trade. Fills a gourmet meal while the French end of 2010 was listed as World Heritage Heritage of Unesco, the Hexagon now imports many of its fruits and vegetables, cheaper to produce outside our borders.

To make France more competitive firm, offers FNSEA implementation of VAT "social antidélocalisation." Its goal: to reduce by at least 30% of the hourly cost of agricultural workers to align with that of its European competitors.A key position when you know that 60% of the cost in this sector, employing 200,000 people, from the cost of labor. Such a measure would cost $ 300 to 350 million euros to the state budget.

To finance it, the future tax soft drinks would not be sufficient. "This requires an increase in VAT terms to be defined. In addition this measure would also apply to imported products as opposed to an increase in the CSG, which again would penalize French farms, "says Xavier Beulin.

Second major issue, increased efforts in research and development in agriculture on G20.With, for example, the introduction of new varieties of animal and plant more to meet consumer expectations.

For a new irrigation policy

The third point concerns the inclusion of the entrepreneurial dimension of the French farm, including the creation of new legal status and accounting standards with the possibility of bankruptcy without affecting personal property.

Finally the fourth theme relates to the environment. FNSEA advocates a new irrigation policy to create water reservoirs to store winter and summer re-use rather than let her go to the sea This implies a reduction of administrative .

FNSEA does not give instructions to vote.The responses of presidential candidates will help farmers, who are no longer systematically acquired the right to guide their choice.

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