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Dropped 6% Eurostoxx 50 in four meetings. -4.5% On the Dow Jones. The stock markets are feeling the pinch since five days after a series of disappointing indicators. But the deteriorating economic conditions may explain in part the decline of recent days. A new phobia stirred since mid-August the community of technical analysts, very active in the Anglo-Saxon: the Hindenburg omen. According to this theory based on statistical observation, when during a single session, a large amount of assets a share price reached its highest level since 52 weeks and another group of shares is in contrast to a low of 52 weeks, then it presages a new crash on Wall Street. This configuration has indeed preceded all the crashes of the past 25 years.Now this rare phenomenon has been observed on August 12 last.

At first glance, the analysis may seem silly, but when we know the possible influence of technical analysis on decision making in trading rooms, the question deserves some attention here. An emphasis on this theory could have the effect of precipitating the collapse of markets by a kind of anticipatory self-fulfilling.

What happened on August 12

On 12 August, the same day at least 2.9% of U.S. stocks from the NYSE reached a peak of 52 weeks, while at least 2.6% of values fell to a low of 52 weeks. This configuration, called "Hindenburg omen," referring to the crash of a German Zeppelin in New Jersey in 1937, would thus poses a risk of an imminent collapse in the New York Stock Exchange.For the scenario is validated, however, requires that the configuration is again within 35 days. However, if one sticks to the analysis of Robert McHugh Marketoracle website, seems to have been the case, last August 20.

More ominously, this type of configuration, which, under certain conditions, would have preceded each of the 25 crashes last year. This was the case before the crash in the fall of 2008. The figure was also present a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987. We could observe three trading days before the panic of October 1989. With this indicator, the 1990 recession, falling stock markets linked to the collapse of LTCM and Asian crises of 1998 were also predictable.

A highly controversial approach

By looking more closely at the scenario is unlikely to occur. To understand this flag, it must return to basics.The paternity of the Hindenburg omen Miekka back to Jim, who edits a newsletter called the Bull & Bear Report Sudbury. But the very idea of this flag goes back to later, finding its roots in another indicator: the high low logic index, described by Norman Fosback in the 1970s. In his book Stock Market Logic, the American economist, explained why when at the same time, a significant number of shares reached a new high and a significant number reaches a low, markets are likely to decline. This shows that the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence, which is generally not conducive to future rising stock prices.

But where Norman Fosback had merely simple criteria, proponents of the Hindenburg omen facing a multitude of conditions, which are subject to interpretation, and therefore are not unanimous.That's where the shoe pinches. In practice, it is virtually unenforceable.

Reliable indicators abound in the sense of portent

When the five conditions necessary for the validation of the Hindenburg omen are met, the stock market crash, defined by a rapid drop of at least 15% of stock market indices in the next four months, would then have 30% chance to occur. A contrario reasoning is sufficient to limit the scope of this prediction: if a 30% chance that a crash occurs, there are so 70% it does not happen! This likelihood does not however exclude the possibility of an imminent crash.

This approach also runs counter to the traditional view of technical analysis, which is to banish any source of subjectivity by analyzing the market through simple indicators, not subject to multiple conditions in an attempt to predict the evolution courses in the coming weeks. Technical analysts therefore recommend to always use the same indicators that markets go up or they fold, including the trend of moving averages.These reliable indicators not currently exclude a decrease of 10% to 15% of the market in the coming weeks, as recommended in the Hindenburg omen.

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The Paris Bourse hesitated Wednesday

The five conditions of the Hindenburg omen

First, the quota values that cross new thresholds upward or downward has been lowered. For Norman Fosback requires a minimum of 5% of the relevant securities. But for the Hindenburg omen it requires a much lower threshold of 2.5%.

Further, the followers of the Hindenburg omen believe it should be interpreted in light of several other indicators on the conditions of validity of five.The first condition, the most important is that the highest and lowest of 52 weeks. The second is that the moving average of ten weeks NYSE should be increased. Thirdly, the McClellan Oscillator (a proxy measure of volatility) must be negative on the same day. Fourth condition: the highest amount of new 52-week values the NYSE should not exceed twice the amount of new low of 52 weeks. Finally, and this is the fifth and final condition: the scenario must be repeated within 36 days after the first appearance of this configuration market.

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A Chinese owner of the club from Liverpool? The fund China Investiment Corporation (CIC), led by the wealthy Kenny Huang, would in any case confirmed its interest in the Reds. More than just a word, CIC has already reached the cash to afford the football club. And, by selling 9% of share capital the fund held in Morgan Stanley. Amount generated: 558 million (the équivelant 351.4 million pounds). Either the decimal point, the debt of British club, reports the Guardian.

Another businessman claiming close discussions with the club to five European Cup victories. He called and said Yahya Kirdi be supported by a group of Canadian investors and Saudi Arabia. "Our group is in advanced negotiations with Tom Hicks and George Gillett, current owners of Liverpool Football Club, to purchase 100% of the club.An agreement was reached on the major terms, including purchase price, repayment of debt (approximately 300 million euros, ie) banks RBS and Wells Fargo to finance a new stadium Stanley Park. The formal contract of sale is in its final stages of negotiation, "he announced.

Statements to be taken lightly. For the sale of the club is orchestrated by Martin Broughton, Chairman of the club, with the support of the British bank Barclays. But Yahya Kirdi does not seem to have negotiated with them directly.

But whether or Yahya Kirdi Kenny Huang, sale of Liverpool seems on track. The leaders of the Reds have more alerted the Premier League, as want new rules on sale of a club, a club takeover was imminent.

The club Liverpool is not the only shine in financial difficulty.Since the beginning of the crisis, fifteen of the twenty clubs that make up the Premier League are looking for investors. According to the audit firm Deloitte, the overall debt of the elite of British football came to 3.6 billion euros in 2009. Manchesteur United, Arsenal and Chelsea, the other three clubs in the "Big Four" are also on trial.

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Having finished sharply higher Monday, the U.S. markets followed their European counterparts in the red. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones coward 0.36% 10,636 points at closing. The Nasdaq and the S & P retreating respectively 0.52% to 2284 points and 0.48% to 1120 points.

Markets were waiting for signs of solid U.S. recovery now but they were not reassured. The Commerce Department announced that consumer spending of U.S. households remained unchanged in June In addition, the consumption figures in May were revised downward: they no longer show a rise of 0.1%, against 0.2% previously announced. Economists had forecast an average increase of 0.1% of consumer spending in June

Household income is also unchanged in June at 0.1%, while economists had estimated the increase at 0.1%.The savings rate has reached 6.4%, up a tenth of a point, its highest level since June 2009.

Prices are down 0.1% in June and inflation falls to 1.4% a year.

Furthermore, he promises the sales on the U.S. housing market suffered an unexpected drop in June The index of the federation of Realtors NAR is thus fell to a new record low 75.7. He had fallen from 29.9% in May after the expiration of a tax credit for first-time buyers. In one year, the show promises to sell a drop in June from 18.6%.

In addition, industrial orders fell 1.2% in June, while the market was expecting a decline of 0.5% only. In May, these orders had fallen 1.8% (revised from -1.4%), posting a second consecutive month of decline.

Dow Chemical and Procter fall

On the corporate side, Dow Chemical (-10.06% to 25.48 dollars) and Procter & Gamble (-3.50% to 59.89 dollars) derive the score down. Both companies have disappointed the markets by their results published before the market opens. The first was reported earnings below expectations in the second quarter to $ 566 million, or 50 cents per share, after posting a loss of $ 486 million (47 cents per share) the previous year. Excluding items, earnings totaled 54 cents per share against 56 cents expected by analysts. The second has announced a profit drop of 12% in the fourth quarter of its fiscal year lagged below expectations at 2.185 billion dollars. The turnover is also lower than expected, growing by 5% to 18.926 billion dollars against 19.1 billion dollars expected.

In contrast, Pfizer (5.56% to 16.34 dollars) flies. The pharmaceutical giant reported earnings up 9% year on year to 2.475 billion dollars against 2.261 billion a year earlier. Earnings per share excluding exceptional items stood at 62 cents while analysts expected 52 cents on average.

RIM (-2.54% to 55.53 dollars) on Tuesday introduced its new BlackBerry. No officer of MDR was available after the presentation of the Torch, a touch screen device and slider to evoke the "discussions" going on with the authorities in countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia worry about the barriers to safety that arise messaging services on the BlackBerry.

Morgan Stanley (-0.72% to 27.48 U.S. dollars) has decided to split the fund FrontPoint risk investments, acquired in 2006 by U.S. TV network CNBC that the transaction would be completed within three months. This split would allow Morgan Stanley to comply with new requirements of the Dodd-Frank legislation on financial regulation, which limits the bank's own brokerage and speculative positions.

Sanofi-Aventis has sent the U.S. biotech group Genzyme (-0.23% to 70.20 dollars) a letter citing his interest in American society, said Monday a source close to the deal, adding that both companies were discussing supply.

The automotive sector also changed on Tuesday after the publication of sales of major manufacturers for the month of July.Ford (-1.75% at 12.93 dollars) despite rising sales of 5% as its competitors, disappoints. Toyota is doing well (1.07% to 72.81 dollars) after avoirqui has reported a 6.8% decline in shipments in July.

The battle over Sunday work in Paris is not over. The prefecture of Paris has indeed refused classification tourist areas of the capital, where normally only stores open on Sundays, Scope of outstanding consumer use (chip), the CFTC said Saturday, confirming a report Le Parisien. A classification that makes all the difference for employees.

The designation entitles them to chip counterparties determined by collective agreement, and failing that, to compensatory time off, salary doubled and the ability to refuse work on Sundays. This classification is written into the law of August 2009 on Sunday work and allowed malls open illegally on Sunday to continue the practice without having to pay fines.

Paris will not benefit from this device."The Prefect of Paris has denied the request of Mayor Bertrand Delanoe to rank tourist areas of the capital as Bullet," the CFTC said in a statement. For the union, this decision is contrary to the promise made by Nicolas Sarkozy, that "those who work on Sundays will be voluntary and paid twice."

The exception "tourist"

The zones of tourist interest are beyond the rule.The Sunday opening of all types of businesses is right, and employees are not entitled to compensatory rest must or a doubling of earnings.

"Once again the argument is made that the law Maille on Sunday is only a law made for large retailers, and this undoubtedly to the detriment of family life, personal and spiritual associations," says the CFTC.

There are seven tourist areas in Paris: Part of the Rue de Rivoli, Place des Vosges and rue des Francs-Bourgeois, Arcola Street, Avenue des Champs Elysees, part of the Viaduc des Arts Daumesnil , part of the Boulevard Saint-Germain, part of the Butte Montmartre.The government wants to see more shops open on Sunday in Paris and proposed a map of tourist areas greatly expanded.

The Socialist mayor blocked the project but on the field, she noted that a growing number of supermarkets began, immediately, to open on Sunday afternoon with impunity.

(With AFP)

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It is the birth of a new global leader in Internet gambling traded. The operator of online paris Austrian Bwin announced Thursday an agreement to merge with its British rival PartyGaming, a wedding to 1.7 billion dollars.

Bwin, listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange and specializes in sports already claimed the leadership position in Europe with a turnover of 373 million euros in 2009.

The second, quoted in London and more focused on poker and casino games, carried 309 million in sales last year. The new group will be listed in London and based in Gibraltar.

The shareholders will own 51.6% Bwin – those of PartyGaming else – but it redeems PartyGaming.The merger will be completed in the first quarter of 2011.

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The number of counterfeit euro banknotes declined in the first half of 2010 according to the biannual report of the European Central Bank (ECB). In total, 387,000 false banknotes were withdrawn from circulation, a decline of 13% over the second half of 2009.

The ECB said that "reported to the stock, up, of genuine euro banknotes in circulation (average 13.2 billion in cuts in the first half of 2010), the number of counterfeits is very small." The European institution does not specify whether the counterfeit notes were seized before their release.

Tickets are most affected by counterfeiting are € 20 (41.5%) and 50 euros (42.5%). Almost all (98%) of counterfeit notes seized this semester have been in a member country of the euro area.According to the Central Office for the Suppression of Counterfeiting Currency (OCRFM) quoted by Agence France Presse (AFP), France, Spain and Italy together account for 70% of the counterfeiting of the euro.

The ECB seeks public caution, recalling the method "Touch-Tilt-Watch" called "TRI" to verify the presence of several security features on tickets for the single currency.

Fiercely negotiated three days in Toronto, the draft statement of the G20 should offend anyone. If it includes the rigorous growth strategy, it also warns against excessive austerity. Still as unpopular worldwide, the tax credit is mentioned by the G20 as a means available to states to pass through to the banks of the crisis mess. The 28 pages of draft final declaration, which obtained a copy of Figaro, operate a subtle synthesis between European and American positions.

Angela Merkel can boast of having imposed the virtues of fiscal discipline at the highest level. But to the relief of Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, she has not transformed the G20 summit of austerity."Recent events show the importance of sustainable public finances and the need for our countries to implement measures to consolidate budget spread over time, conducive to growth, and differentiated according to country and national circumstances," says the One of the phrases most discussed compromise.

Determined to make growth "priority" of the G20, the United States got to place the term "recovery" prominently in the declaration, a challenge, says a trader. "We need to let it work through our plans to consolidate fiscal stimulus recovery," said the G20 as well. "Adjustments in simultaneous biggest countries could undermine the recovery," it added.

Disagreement over the top on bank charges

Canada has not really managed to impose a stability pact worldwide."Advanced economies have pledged to take measures to consolidate budgetary decline by at least half the deficit by 2013, and stabilize or reduce the debt / GDP ratio by 2016, said the G20. Nothing that does very afraid of the euro area, or even France, which has promised to reduce its deficit to 3% in 2013. The White House, meanwhile, did not wait for the G20 to commit to reducing the U.S. budget deficit by half in 2013 to return to deficits of 3% in 2015.

If the disagreement at the summit endorsed the tax credit, due to strong opposition from Canada to Australia, but also emerging countries (China, India, Russia), the G20 mention the tax as an option for countries seeking to save public money in any future banking crisis.Defended by the Fund, this fee would be modulated according to risk profile of financial institutions.

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Until now, the French have not felt the effects of policy, expenditure control has been conducted since 2007. For the general revision of public policies (RGPP) merely cut in the organization of the state, culminating with the non-replacement of staff on two retiring. After the controversy arose in Spring 2008 when Bercy had failed to dent the map "families," the executive had resigned himself to not touch, or marginally so, the expenses of intervention, ie policy social and wider economic (costs targeted exemptions, housing subsidies, RSA, assisted contracts …) and subsidies (crops, including transport).

Today, given the magnitude of deficits, the government changed its tune.In framing the letter he sent to all departments, Francois Fillon requires a 10% decline in value of intervention expenditure in the period 2011-2013. "To meet the target of freezing government spending-load of debt and pensions, we can not content ourselves to work on the only day operation of departments," said Baroin's entourage, the Minister Budget. In fact, operating expenses, such purchases, computers or real estate, representing less than 20 billion euros, while the operating expenses weigh 67 billion. The Prime Minister had already announced a cut of 10% within the past week. Measurement confirmed in the letter of framing.The extension of this plane to political intervention will save 6 billion more to the state by 2013.

Difficult choices

Remains now to determine exactly where the cuts will take place. Discussions between Bercy and the ministries that will lead to arbitrage mid-June, tight ahead, as the operating expenses are political. Social expenditures account for half wicket. For them, it will take "specific reforms," according to the letter of framing. Minister of Youth, Marc-Philippe Daubresse however assured Wednesday that the criteria for awarding the RIAA will not be changed. The other half of the expenditure is made up of sectoral aid.Transport (including rail network of France), agriculture, housing and culture are on the front line.

"More generally, all departments will freeze all spending," insists one at Bercy. Including, therefore, that of Defence, while the military budget law provided an increase in appropriations. But everything should be done to ensure that capital expenditure are chipped to a minimum.

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Continental Airlines and United Airlines are about to happen in the ring finger. According to CNBC, a merger agreement between the two U.S. airlines could be signed next Monday.

According to the Thursday edition of The Wall Street Journal, "the Board of Directors of Continental met Wednesday and has scheduled another meeting on Friday (the day, Ed)" with United, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Two years after failing in their negotiations – the two groups did not agree because of unions and integration costs – United and Continental, whose bosses have always wanted to participate in the movement of Contraction sector, would now be on the same wavelength.

These last two weeks, the talks resumed but opinions differed on how the modality of trade action.

U.S. leadership to

This union intervendrait and only one week after the breakdown of negotiations between U.S. Airways and United Airlines. If the proposed merger between Continental and United Airlines led the new group would become the U.S. leader in the sector, ahead of Delta Airlines, with a market capitalization of over $ 6 billion.

It remains to be seen whether the authority will accept American competition this marriage Guaranteed unsecured personal loan. For who says merger often said job cuts and higher fares.What politically wrong.

A refusal has been lived to its reasons for U.S. Airways and United Airlines, almost 10 years ago, when they had proposed a reconciliation.

A need for synergies

While the sector has experienced in 2009 "the worst year's ever known industry, concentration is a single best way to achieve synergies and economies of scale.

The North American companies have suffered a loss of 3.1 billion dollars last year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

For 2010, although the estimates have been reported by IATA, the performance accrue largely to companies in emerging countries (Asia and South America), while companies in North America and Europe still would suffer heavy losses, the about 1.8 billion dollars for the former and 2.2 billion for the latter.

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U.S. stock markets are a small step forward Wednesday. The Dow Jones ahead of a timid 0.06%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.24%. The previous day, the Dow Jones gained 0.23% and the Nasdaq 0.81%. In Asia this morning, the same trend with the Nikkei in particular that ended on a positive note (1.74%).

Apple Earnings blaze

The technology sector benefited from the announcement after market, a 90% surge in net income of U.S. computer maker Apple in the first quarter. Inflated by including a doubling of sales of iPhones, the company's net earnings to net apple exceeds $ 3 billion in the second quarter of its fiscal offset. Turnover was up 49% to 13.50 billion dollars.Apple shares climbed 5.64% to 258.38 dollars.

Also in the technology sector, Yahoo! also published after the close a net profit group share in the first quarter more than doubled on year to more than 310 million dollars. In contrast, the turnover has been disappointing. It increased only 1% to just under $ 1.6 billion. Result: the shares fell sharply from 5.77% to 17.32 dollars.

On Tuesday, the financial sector, for its part, was carried by the strong quarterly results from investment bank Goldman Sachs (1.26% to $ 162), whose future remains clouded by fraud prosecutions undertaken by securities regulators in the United States and Great Britain.The firm has more than doubled its net profit in the first three months of the year to nearly 3.5 billion dollars.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro was slightly lower Wednesday as investors watching the talks between Greek officials and teams from the EU, IMF and ECB on aid to Greece due to start Wednesday after a successful bond sale by Athens yesterday. By mid-afternoon, the European currency was worth 1.3401 dollars, down 0.16%.

Today on Wall Street, investors will monitor the traditional weekly crude inventories will be published in late afternoon.