The activity growth slows in France
August subdued for the French economy. According to a first estimate, the flash PMI index of purchasing managers stood at its lowest level since five months, to 59 points, against 59.7 in July, reported Markit. Pessimists will note that the services are in decline, against 61.1 to 59.9 in July. As for industry, she has continued to destroy jobs in the month of August.
But optimists emphasize that, although down compared to July, the PMI indicator reflects a strong growth in business services as industry. This also recovers to 54.7 against 53.9 a month earlier. In general, grade Markit, the two sectors have "stronger growth in the volume of new business" on the month. What "confirm the solidity of the French takeover," analyzes Jack Kennedy, economist at Markit.The government has revised its forecast Friday for growth for 2011 downward from 2.5% to 2%.
On another positive note, employment continued to grow, driven by strong hiring in the services. Above all, companies "remain confident about their business outlook," "anticipate new business opportunities" and "hope for an improvement in overall economic conditions over the next twelve months," notes Markit.
Germany shaped
In Germany, activity has accelerated in August, reaching the highest since three years, according to Markit index. This was up by 59.3 points, against 59 in July. "The strong growth in services from the index, while the industry recorded a slight slowdown in growth."While some manufacturers are worried about the holding of world trade, the robust performance of services will be crucial in the second half" to maintain the dynamism of the recovery in Germany, analyzes Tim Moore, an economist at Markit.
The PMI index for the entire euro area fell slightly to 56.1, against 56.7 points in July. This result, which indicates a growth in activity, conceals alarming disparities between national economies, growth still based primarily on Germany and France, "warned Markit.
"After an excellent second quarter, growth in the third quarter should be relatively robust to the heart of Europe," said Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas."A further rise in significant business is in the cards, probably beyond current expectations."
Less optimistic economists at BNP Paribas' doubt that the dynamism in the services prevent the European economy to slow sharply in the second half. "