The economies of emerging countries will exceed those of rich countries
The OECD refers to a "structural change" of historic importance. The phenomenon is not new but it has accelerated over the last decade and more as a result of the crisis. The weight of emerging economies has amplified, as evidenced by a new study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on the tilting of wealth. In support, the few trade data: in 2009, China became the largest trading partner of Brazil, India and South Africa. Between 1990 and 2008, world trade has multiplied almost fourfold, while the South-South trade have been more than ten. Indian car maker Tata is now the second largest investor in sub-Saharan Africa.Financially, the Developing Countries held in 2008, 4.2 trillion dollars of foreign reserves, or more than one and half times the amount held by the rich countries.
Another sign of their increasing weight between 1990 and 2000, the number of countries called emerging markets (ie whose average per capita equivalent to more than double that of OECD countries) has increased from 12 65. Several states of Eastern Europe like the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia acceded to the richest group, along with Saudi Arabia. Today, says the OECD, a simple division into two is more relevant. Château de la Muette now retains the concept of world "four speed", according to growth rates and income levels: poor, distressed, convergent and rich.Interesting phenomenon, twenty economies, mostly in Asia like India, Indonesia and Bangladesh but also in Africa, like Ethiopia or Nigeria, have made a great leap forward from the status of "poor" than "converge".
Note in this scenario, the underperformance of Latin America, where reforms have done little to advance growth. The report noted a reduction of poverty, especially in China where the rate has decreased by 60% in 1995 to 16% in 2005. The downside, if the number of poor has decreased overall from 300 million in the last decade, growth has often been accompanied by increasing inequality, which may influence the long term.
But the trend should not be reversed.In 2030, the OECD area could represent 43% of global GDP in purchasing power parity, against 60% in 2000 and 51% in 2010.